BC: Classic (PP's/Odds)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt?

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

This won't happen very often through your love of the silent kitten, but i agree with you here.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race.

While 1:11 for the opening 6f of the Derby isn't exactly crawling, I don't think I would call it "brutal." He got the lead early, and while he was pressed through the opening quarter, he was unchallenged from there until Street Sense ran by him.
People talk about Street Sense's "dream trip" along the rail, and certainly it was a combination of some gutsy riding by Calvin and some good old-fashioned racing luck. But I think because Hard Spun's trip wasn't so obviously amazing, it sometimes gets lost that HE had a very easy trip as well. Not only was he just cruising on an uncontested lead down the backstretch, he was right along the rail the whole way around too. It isn't like Street Sense's amazing trip that day caused him to save a lot of ground in comparison to Hard Spun.
Now obviously that race was over 5 months ago and on a different racetrack in a different part of the country than the upcoming race. The fact that Street Sense was - in my mind at least - clearly the best horse that day obviously does not mean that he is going to beat Hard Spun in the BCC. However, from what I have seen from these two horses on the dirt, and beyond 9f, there is no reason for me to believe that Hard Spun is a more likely winner than Street Sense on a fair track.
I am not completely convinced at this point, however, that either of them will beat Curlin.

[Scav]

Anyone know if Curlin is off to the shed after the Classic? I don't remember seeing it anywhere, but I am guessing a successful son of Smart Strike is kinda of popular right now