BC: Classic (PP's/Odds)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt? Who won that one?
If the track has a ridiculous bias like it did earlier this year that will be one thing, but if they get it fair, I don't like Hard Spun and/or Lawyer Ron. If it is a merry-go-round, they could be the exacta.

He was on the lead but he was pressed through faster fractions than he would have desired. He should have an easier time of it here unless Lawyer Ron gets headstrong.

Keep in mind the 19th and 20th horses early got up to finish 1st and 4th and Curlin came from fairly deep. It was hardly a race where the fractions played in the favor of the speed horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt?

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

This won't happen very often through your love of the silent kitten, but i agree with you here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

CP West

on another note...

I've like Street Sense since the BC Juvenile. (had a nice win bet and hit the trifecta)

I just don't think there is enough in this race to get him there. The race will be decided on the back stretch and won by the 1/16th pole. [Of course this is before I see the PPs.]

As far as the cost.. there is more to gain than the $5mil purse. There is stud fees. I know they already made their deals ahead of time but you know the other people involved would love to say, "winner of BC Juvenile/Classic"
I would think Darley or whoever would pay the fees if they could set the race up for their future stud.

but I think a lot of things that never happen.

Oh, my instinct says CP West will still be running on BC Day.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Why would Gotcha Gold have not tried to run in the Classic on a track that he is almost unbeatable? That makes no sense.

You are probably right on that. I had forgotten about the Iselin and was thinking he hadn't won yet at a mile and an eighth. If he is almost unbeatable then why the heck are they running him for $1 million instead of $5 million?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It should be interesting to see how the track is playing.

No doubt.

There is a contrarian train of thought that racing officials might be stupid enough to try and play with the track to make it "fair" and you will end up getting a dead rail like on Haskell Day in 2006...when something like seven or eight races were won by the horse breaking from the extreme outside most post position.

If anyone remembers, Prado was on next-out Super Derby winner Strong Contender in that race, and had an inside post. If you didn't know that Prado was hellbent on getting as wide as he could because of the way the track was....you'd have to think he totally lost his mind with the way he rode SC.

If they screw with the track - than you really have to wonder what will happen in a race like Juv Fillies...a race that is over-flowing with sprint speed and begging to be won by something who makes the final run from well off the pace.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

why the heck are they running him for $1 million instead of $5 million?

Because they'd rather run at a distance they believe there horse is better suited to - while facing lesser opposition.

If there was no Dirt Mile, it's safe to assume they'd have taken a flyer and tried the Classic.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because they'd rather run at a distance they believe there horse is better suited to - while facing lesser opposition.

If there was no Dirt Mile, it's safe to assume they'd have taken a flyer and tried the Classic.

Still it is a five to one ratio in terms of purse. That would be like skipping the Travers for a $200,000 race when you think you had a shot in the Travers. Winning the BC Dirt Mile is going to pay roughly the same as 3rd in the Classic with 2nd paying less than 4th in the Classic and 3rd paying less than 5th in the Classic. Sure seems to me that they don't have much confidence in their horse at 10 furlongs.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Still it is a five to one ratio in terms of purse. That would be like skipping the Travers for a $200,000 race when you think you had a shot in the Travers. Winning the BC Dirt Mile is going to pay roughly the same as 3rd in the Classic with 2nd paying less than 4th in the Classic and 3rd paying less than 5th in the Classic.

To run in the Classic, I believe it costs something like 50K to pre-enter and 75K to enter.

Gottcha Gold is a one-way speed, all or nothing type of horse. I believe he's made 22 starts in his career and has just 3 seconds and 1 third place finish....he goes as fast as he can for as far as he can.

I think you are missing that when you say if he finishes 3rd in the Classic he gets the same money as if he wins the Mile.

He's the type of horse that throws in the towell once he's passed....and don't forget he beat Lawyer Ron over this track in the Salvator Mile....however, LR was cutting into the margin and surely would have won with more ground to work with.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

As DrugS called weeks ago (pains me to admit it) there really is very little speed in there. If Lawyer Ron and Velazquez let Hard Spun roll up front, he could be long gone. It completely changes my way of thinking for the race. Kind of sad that a $5 million race here can attract only 9 entrants.

AGS also has tatical speed along with LR. between the 2 i think one of them will keep the pressure on hard spun so he dosen't get a uncontested lead and roll away with this race

[The Indomitable DrugS]

AGS has Gomez (who loves to rate and is widely considered a strong finishing jockey) and AGS is a more effective horse when he rates. He's hung bad in a few races he's used his speed.

In the Haskell he wasn't far behind HS early, but that's only because Hard Spun had a VERY costly early stumble when the gates opened from his outside post, and he was taken under a hold to avoid dueling with hopeless one-way speed Cable Boy.

The only horse who can press Hard Spun is LR.

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt? Who won that one?
If the track has a ridiculous bias like it did earlier this year that will be one thing, but if they get it fair, I don't like Hard Spun and/or Lawyer Ron. If it is a merry-go-round, they could be the exacta.

i agree, it all comes down to if they make the track fair-street sense will have a shot. if they leave it like its been all year-speed i'll take AGS to pull off the upset. AGS sit and stalk and let a rank LR and HS wear themselves down and go by

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by philcski

Oh, my instinct says CP West will still be running on BC Day.

He still hasn't finished his last race?

[Bobby Fischer]

It's a great race as it is , but I would prefer 12 or 13 horses to bet on.

Would much prefer to see Student Council , Sun King, Diamond Stripes, Gotcha Gold/Grasshopper/Going Ballistic as well.

Slightly better odds and a super pays a lot more if one of the "deadweight" horses sucks up for 4th.

Encourage a full field at the expense of having each contender be a true win candidate.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Classic


Any Given Saturday, WinStar Farm, LLC, Padua Stables, Todd A. Pletcher, Racehorse Management, LLC
Awesome Gem, West Point Thoroughbreds, Inc., Patrice Arudel , Paul Blavin, Craig Dollase, Runnymede Farm Inc., Catesby Clay & Peter Callahan
Curlin, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Padua Stables, George Bolton , Shirley Cunningham Jr., Steven M. Asmussen, Fares Farm Inc.
George Washington (IRE), Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith, Aidan P. O'Brien, Lael Stables
Hard Spun, Fox Hill Farms Inc., J. Larry Jones, Michael Moran & Brushwood Stable
Lawyer Ron, Hines Racing LLC, Todd A. Pletcher, James T. Hines
Street Sense, James B. Tafel, Carl A. Nafzger, James Tafel
Tiago, Mr. & Mrs. Jerome S. Moss, John A. Shirreffs, J. S. Moss

We will talk about this race first, in terms of TG. The others are such a cluster
AGS: AGS is gonna be a hot play because of his 2nd back performance at Monmouth, this we know. I don't really question his last race because Pletcher is just not getting his monster performances that he is used to. He runs that Monmouth race and he competes but I get the feeling those two efforts (2nd/3rd back) might have taken alot out of him.
AwesomeGem: A faster man's Hard Spun, except this horse just can't get into the winner circle. Would like to see Craig Dollase get a win but think he is climbing an up hill battle
Curlin: Another amazing horse with a great sheet with obvious recent care and caution with his races. Got back to his top in his last race and is co-2ndfastest with AGS. Getting back to that top with the careful planning should show a move forward
GW: Co-slowest along with along with the wap, Thank you Aiden for entering as this horse will take a little action because of last years' so-called decent performance
HS: Has run three of the same numbers, two of them around two turns, and I can see why people will argue him being on a lonely lead. Obviously if they let him chill out there he will be tough because he has some guts but would have to improve about 2.5 pts to win this, not happening unless a slow pace happens, which I doubt.
LR: After his two performances at Saratoga, I would ready to hand him this race. His last race, TG wise, is loaded with wideness, which those numbers I tend to question a little. That being said, he is still the fastest horse in the race and others will have to improve to catch him.
SS: SS's TG pattern is SCARY GOOD. It is EXACTLY like his prepping for the KY Derby, where he ran a monsterous race. The four race pattern is a thing of beauty. I fully expect him to run a top right into the breeding shed
Tiago: Co-slowest along with the president, thank you for being a money eater

Tiago and George Washington have no shot. Hard Spun can win, but only on a lonely lead and slow fractions. LR, Street Sense, Curlin and AGS all have shots at winning

Best Sheet for improvement: T - Street Sense and Curlin
Most Likely winner: Lawyer Ron

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Scav

We will talk about this race first, in terms of TG. The others are such a cluster
AGS: AGS is gonna be a hot play because of his 2nd back performance at Monmouth, this we know. I don't really question his last race because Pletcher is just not getting his monster performances that he is used to. He runs that Monmouth race and he competes but I get the feeling those two efforts (2nd/3rd back) might have taken alot out of him.
AwesomeGem: A faster man's Hard Spun, except this horse just can't get into the winner circle. Would like to see Craig Dollase get a win but think he is climbing an up hill battle
Curlin: Another amazing horse with a great sheet with obvious recent care and caution with his races. Got back to his top in his last race and is co-2ndfastest with AGS. Getting back to that top with the careful planning should show a move forward
GW: Co-slowest along with along with the wap, Thank you Aiden for entering as this horse will take a little action because of last years' so-called decent performance
HS: Has run three of the same numbers, two of them around two turns, and I can see why people will argue him being on a lonely lead. Obviously if they let him chill out there he will be tough because he has some guts but would have to improve about 2.5 pts to win this, not happening unless a slow pace happens, which I doubt.
LR: After his two performances at Saratoga, I would ready to hand him this race. His last race, TG wise, is loaded with wideness, which those numbers I tend to question a little. That being said, he is still the fastest horse in the race and others will have to improve to catch him.
SS: SS's TG pattern is SCARY GOOD. It is EXACTLY like his prepping for the KY Derby, where he ran a monsterous race. The four race pattern is a thing of beauty. I fully expect him to run a top right into the breeding shed
Tiago: Co-slowest along with the president, thank you for being a money eater

Tiago and George Washington have no shot. Hard Spun can win, but only on a lonely lead and slow fractions. LR, Street Sense, Curlin and AGS all have shots at winning

Best Sheet for improvement: T - Street Sense and Curlin
Most Likely winner: Lawyer Ron

I agree with just about everything you said. A nice read btw. The only point I think is worth mentioning is Lawyer Ron is a 9f horse in a 10f race.

I hope that there is a decent pace in this race. Street Sense could be pressing but to win he will need to sit back and wait. Carl Nafzger said he is ready to run like he was for the Tamba Bay Derby (not the Ky Derby). Is he suggesting that Any Given Saturday is The Horse to beat?

Monmouth is notoriously early speed bias. Someone else mentioned them killing the rail to make it play fair. That will hurt Calvin's preferred style. However, I think someone would finally decide to stay in the way as a few will be in front of him.

[Travis Stone]

It's tough when you handicap such a quality race. One of the pillars of solid wagering is the best bet in racing is lone speed. Hard Spun is without a doubt lone speed in the Classic. But then folks would argue that Class trumps speed, especially going long. Interesting puzzle.

I think the questions with Hard Spun are:

(1) Is Street Sense as good as he was in May? If you think he's tailed-off, while Hard Spun has largely maintained similar form, certainly the scales are tipping.

(2) Monmouth's track. Does it favor the front-end throughout the week?

(3) Lawyer Ron holds the key to Hard Spun's Classic winning move. Does he press the 3-year-old? Is he rank and intractable? How long does Johnny V. let him go for?

Tough stuff...

[King Glorious]

I don't get why so many people think that Hard Spun will be lone speed here. I don't think there is any chance of that happening. I believe Lawyer Ron will press him. It may not be in the first quarter or three furlongs but by the time they reach the half mile mark, I believe that Lawyer Ron will have moved up to engage him and the battle will be on. It will cause both horses to go a little faster than they want to go from the half to the 6f mark and weaken both of their stretch runs. Lawyer Ron will put Hard Spun away by the time they hit the top of the lane but will have nothing left to hold off the late runners in the final 8th. Curlin is my choice to win this race and Lawyer Ron is my choice to run third. For the second spot, I'm leaning towards towards AGS but will also play GW and Street Sense there.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't get why so many people think that Hard Spun will be lone speed here. I don't think there is any chance of that happening. I believe Lawyer Ron will press him. It may not be in the first quarter or three furlongs but by the time they reach the half mile mark, I believe that Lawyer Ron will have moved up to engage him and the battle will be on. It will cause both horses to go a little faster than they want to go from the half to the 6f mark and weaken both of their stretch runs. Lawyer Ron will put Hard Spun away by the time they hit the top of the lane but will have nothing left to hold off the late runners in the final 8th. Curlin is my choice to win this race and Lawyer Ron is my choice to run third. For the second spot, I'm leaning towards towards AGS but will also play GW and Street Sense there.

Pino would love to go 24 seconds for the first quarter. Where that puts the others I don't think really matters to him. Hard Spun can run a 24 first quarter and work his way up to a 6 furlong call between 1:11 and 1:12. Pino and Jones are confident that Spun can win on these terms. They don't care about another horse. As long as he doesn't get taken out in 109 like the preakness, or 116 like the Belmont the horse will put in a solid run. Pino and the Hard Spun have matured in their relationship to the point where they are capable of going a moderate 24 first fraction and have no intention whatsoever of "sneaking" away with a fast first fraction to get lone speed. Hard Spun will not even notice a little guy like Lawyer Ron anyway.

Lawyer Ron the horse wants to go 23 and small change for the first quarter. This creates a potential problem because John Velazquez does not want to lead at the first fraction. Johnny is going to hope and pray that Hard Spun goes as fast as the arm-chair handicappers seem to think Hard Spun will go - because JV does not want Ron on the lead, but he will have to have a good hold on Lawyer Ron to go 24 again.
If Ron can repeat the showing of the JCGC then they will be extremely pleased and will have a chance to hold on and win the race. If no one runs big behind them at the top of the backstretch- Ron may open up big with a furlong to go.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Pino would love to go 24 seconds for the first quarter. Where that puts the others I don't think really matters to him. Hard Spun can run a 24 first quarter and work his way up to a 6 furlong call between 1:11 and 1:12. Pino and Jones are confident that Spun can win on these terms. They don't care about another horse. As long as he doesn't get taken out in 109 like the preakness, or 116 like the Belmont the horse will put in a solid run. Pino and the Hard Spun have matured in their relationship to the point where they are capable of going a moderate 24 first fraction and have no intention whatsoever of "sneaking" away with a fast first fraction to get lone speed. Hard Spun will not even notice a little guy like Lawyer Ron anyway.

Lawyer Ron the horse wants to go 23 and small change for the first quarter. This creates a potential problem because John Velazquez does not want to lead at the first fraction. Johnny is going to hope and pray that Hard Spun goes as fast as the arm-chair handicappers seem to think Hard Spun will go - because JV does not want Ron on the lead, but he will have to have a good hold on Lawyer Ron to go 24 again.
If Ron can repeat the showing of the JCGC then they will be extremely pleased and will have a chance to hold on and win the race. If no one runs big behind them at the top of the backstretch- Ron may open up big with a furlong to go.

lr didnt give his best at belmont..he will on bc day...why kill the horse when the bc is so close..