BC: Classic (PP's/Odds)

[Bigsmc]

Classic Starters

1984 - 8
85 - 8
86 - 11
87 - 12
88 - 9
89 - 8
90 - 14
91 - 11
92 - 14
93 - 13
94 - 14
95 - 11
96 - 13
97 - 9
98 - 10
99 - 14
00 - 13
01 - 11
02 - 12
03 - 10
04 - 13
05 - 13
06 - 13

Average number of Classic starters = 11.48

[NoChanceToDance]

I knew there has been method in my madness in thinking that Hard Spun could get it soft on the lead and be away and gone. If Pino rides a proper race he could catch the others napping with the shorter stratch at Monmouth. Even DaHoss is sort of coming round to this now!!

Hard Spun was a cracking bet at 20/1 last week. Why didn't i take it.

Hard Spun / AGS for me. Curlin closing far to late into third.

Street Sense doesn't hit the board.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I knew there has been method in my madness in thinking that Hard Spun could get it soft on the lead and be away and gone. If Pino rides a proper race he could catch the others napping with the shorter stratch at Monmouth. Even DaHoss is sort of coming round to this now!!

Hard Spun was a cracking bet at 20/1 last week. Why didn't i take it.

Hard Spun / AGS for me. Curlin closing far to late into third.

Street Sense doesn't hit the board.

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt? Who won that one?
If the track has a ridiculous bias like it did earlier this year that will be one thing, but if they get it fair, I don't like Hard Spun and/or Lawyer Ron. If it is a merry-go-round, they could be the exacta.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt? Who won that one?
If the track has a ridiculous bias like it did earlier this year that will be one thing, but if they get it fair, I don't like Hard Spun and/or Lawyer Ron. If it is a merry-go-round, they could be the exacta.

He was on the lead but he was pressed through faster fractions than he would have desired. He should have an easier time of it here unless Lawyer Ron gets headstrong.

Keep in mind the 19th and 20th horses early got up to finish 1st and 4th and Curlin came from fairly deep. It was hardly a race where the fractions played in the favor of the speed horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt?

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

This won't happen very often through your love of the silent kitten, but i agree with you here.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race.

While 1:11 for the opening 6f of the Derby isn't exactly crawling, I don't think I would call it "brutal." He got the lead early, and while he was pressed through the opening quarter, he was unchallenged from there until Street Sense ran by him.
People talk about Street Sense's "dream trip" along the rail, and certainly it was a combination of some gutsy riding by Calvin and some good old-fashioned racing luck. But I think because Hard Spun's trip wasn't so obviously amazing, it sometimes gets lost that HE had a very easy trip as well. Not only was he just cruising on an uncontested lead down the backstretch, he was right along the rail the whole way around too. It isn't like Street Sense's amazing trip that day caused him to save a lot of ground in comparison to Hard Spun.
Now obviously that race was over 5 months ago and on a different racetrack in a different part of the country than the upcoming race. The fact that Street Sense was - in my mind at least - clearly the best horse that day obviously does not mean that he is going to beat Hard Spun in the BCC. However, from what I have seen from these two horses on the dirt, and beyond 9f, there is no reason for me to believe that Hard Spun is a more likely winner than Street Sense on a fair track.
I am not completely convinced at this point, however, that either of them will beat Curlin.

[Scav]

Anyone know if Curlin is off to the shed after the Classic? I don't remember seeing it anywhere, but I am guessing a successful son of Smart Strike is kinda of popular right now

[pdrift1]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one who remembers that Hard Spun had things all his own way on the front end the last time he met Street Sense going 10f on dirt? Who won that one?
If the track has a ridiculous bias like it did earlier this year that will be one thing, but if they get it fair, I don't like Hard Spun and/or Lawyer Ron. If it is a merry-go-round, they could be the exacta.

i agree, it all comes down to if they make the track fair-street sense will have a shot. if they leave it like its been all year-speed i'll take AGS to pull off the upset. AGS sit and stalk and let a rank LR and HS wear themselves down and go by

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It should be interesting to see how the track is playing.

No doubt.

There is a contrarian train of thought that racing officials might be stupid enough to try and play with the track to make it "fair" and you will end up getting a dead rail like on Haskell Day in 2006...when something like seven or eight races were won by the horse breaking from the extreme outside most post position.

If anyone remembers, Prado was on next-out Super Derby winner Strong Contender in that race, and had an inside post. If you didn't know that Prado was hellbent on getting as wide as he could because of the way the track was....you'd have to think he totally lost his mind with the way he rode SC.

If they screw with the track - than you really have to wonder what will happen in a race like Juv Fillies...a race that is over-flowing with sprint speed and begging to be won by something who makes the final run from well off the pace.

[miraja2]

That is a good point Bigs. The 1989 Classic had only 8 starters and a couple of big 3yos, kind of like this year. Anybody know if that race turned out to be a memorable one?
Now, clearly nobody in this race is in the same league as Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, but a small field doesn't have to mean a bad race.

[Bobby Fischer]

It's a great race as it is , but I would prefer 12 or 13 horses to bet on.

Would much prefer to see Student Council , Sun King, Diamond Stripes, Gotcha Gold/Grasshopper/Going Ballistic as well.

Slightly better odds and a super pays a lot more if one of the "deadweight" horses sucks up for 4th.

Encourage a full field at the expense of having each contender be a true win candidate.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

It's a great race as it is , but I would prefer 12 or 13 horses to bet on.

Would much prefer to see Student Council , Sun King, Diamond Stripes, Gotcha Gold/Grasshopper/Going Ballistic as well.

Slightly better odds and a super pays a lot more if one of the "deadweight" horses sucks up for 4th.

Encourage a full field at the expense of having each contender be a true win candidate.

Oh gosh...that's a good one.




Hey...can I use this?

[letswastemoney]

If only Lava Man were in this race...

[letswastemoney]

I think a handicapper's dream would be if it were this Classic field + Lava Man + The Green Monkey