10/10: Keeneland (Late P4)

[pointman]

Nice going, Steve. Great call.

[pmacdaddy]

Nice one Steve! Those were some very BIG numbers.

[Kasept]

Thanks very much all.. It was fun being on the air for the race and I'm particularly pleased that three people I know of used Five Star Thief: Matt for the win; 'Nick in Pittsburgh' boxing the 4 horses for the exacta and 'Larry the Mailman' (in my home town of Manchester, CT) utilizing my 4 and another for a piece of the Superfecta.

I liked the horse a lot when handicapping yesterday and not being as comfortable at KEE as Matt, was unsure how much to really like him at 30-1. City Number looked the 'most likely' at 5-1 and Japengo seemed the "best value" as a win candidate in the final analysis at 15-1. But Five Star Thief had to be used and landed as the Exotics inclusion. Christine Janks' Big Rushlet was very attractive at 12-1 too, so I added him in as the 4th. Got lucky getting the tri among the quartet with Japengo just getting up for third, and Big Rushlet ran big for the place.

Not to belabor the point, but I hope a result like this demonstrates why I structure the plays the way I do. Those that say having 4 horses offered in Selections "don't have an opinion" aren't appreciating the exotics game. I play exactas, tris, P3's-P4's and some supers. I make win-place bets, but not even remotely as often as exotic and multi-race bets.

I'm not looking at the horses specifically to select one single horse as a winner... I look trying to identify the 2-3 horses that appear to have the best shot at winning and seperate them by value, add a horse with an outside chance or marginally likeable chalk, and key the best priced horse with a real win shot or box 3-4 horses. My approach means I do get beat often with chalky results, but has also forged a positive return long term with solid to very large exacta, tri, super and P3-P4 hits.

I'm hardly the most sophisticated bettor/handicapper out there or the most knowledgeable, but when I hit a $721 exacta in 1990 box-wheeling a 16-1 shot with 4 horses on a $16 bet (3rd race on Alabama Day-Keynote Speaker at 27-1 over Balinar at the 16-1), I realized that it was an approach that would cover many, many incorrect views and have stuck with it as my playing method.

Anyway, I greatly appreciate the compliments; was very pleased with the result; and am most satisfied knowing others 'got healthy' with it...

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thanks very much all.. It was fun being on the air for the race and I'm particularly pleased that three people I know of used Five Star Thief: Matt for the win; 'Nick in Pittsburgh' boxing the 4 horses for the exacta and 'Larry the Mailman' (in my home town of Manchester, CT) utilizing my 4 and another for a piece of the Superfecta.

I liked the horse a lot when handicapping yesterday and not being as comfortable at KEE as Matt, was unsure how much to really like him at 30-1. City Number looked the 'most likely' at 5-1 and Japengo seemed the "best value" as a win candidate in the final analysis at 15-1. But Five Star Thief had to be used and landed as the Exotics inclusion. Christine Janks' Big Rushlet was very attractive at 12-1 too, so I added him in as the 4th. Got lucky getting the tri among the quartet with Japengo just getting up for third, and Big Rushlet ran big for the place.

Not to belabor the point, but I hope a result like this demonstrates why I structure the plays the way I do. Those that say having 4 horses offered in Selections "don't have an opinion" aren't appreciating the exotics game. I play exactas, tris, P3's-P4's and some supers. I make win-place bets, but not even remotely as often as exotic and multi-race bets.

I'm not looking at the horses specifically to select one single horse as a winner... I look trying to identify the 2-3 horses that appear to have the best shot at winning and seperate them by value, add a horse with an outside chance or marginally likeable chalk, and key the best priced horse with a real win shot or box 3-4 horses. My approach means I do get beat often with chalky results, but has also forged a positive return long term with solid to very large exacta, tri, super and P3-P4 hits.

I'm hardly the most sophisticated bettor/handicapper out there or the most knowledgeable, but when I hit a $721 exacta in 1990 box-wheeling a 16-1 shot with 4 horses on a $16 bet (3rd race on Alabama Day-Keynote Speaker at 27-1 over Balinar at the 16-1), I realized that it was an approach that would cover many, many incorrect views and have stuck with it as my playing method.

Anyway, I greatly appreciate the compliments; was very pleased with the result; and am most satisfied knowing others 'got healthy' with it...

'Those that say having 4 horses offered in Selections "don't have an opinion"' obviously didn't use your horses. I have learned more about wagering from this board, and in particular Steve, in less than a year than I have in many years following the horses. Never had a signor before this year and have had a few in less than nine months and 2 in 9 days. I still have to learn how to cut more horses down and get my bets down, but I am working on it. Keep doing what you are doing Steve, I for one appreciate it and those that complain obviously don't understand how to make a profit in this game.