Barclay Tagg's comments on NoBiz

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

You know, I'd bet that prior to this past weekend, you would have told me that Diamond Stripes would easily beat Xchanger too. Yet he was just all out to hold off that one in NJ.

The fact is that all of you that are saying Nobiz would have no shot are basing that on the fact that you believe he's no better now than he's ever been. I don't concede that as the truth. If it is the truth, then you are right. If he has improved from the spring though, his numbers would fit in with the rest of the field. I'm not arguing that he's a threat to win the race. I don't think he is. I think he rates behind the top four. Maybe that alone is reason not to look at the race if they would be going in with their best hope being third or fourth. But when that third or fourth is in the BC Classic, I can live with that.

That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.

By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.

You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.

Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.

By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.

You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.

Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.

Because of the way I think the race will be run, I don't give Hard Spun a shot in hell of doing anything. The others are my top four and frankly, I'm not sold on Street Sense or Any Given Saturday. If they both run their best races, I think they are in the mix. But just as people have been saying about Nobiz, I'm not sure that I see a better SS now than I did at this time last year. His Travers figure wasn't any better than the Juvenile and wasn't as good as his Derby and Preakness. Whereas usually the top 3yo's improve as the year goes on (Curlin, AGS and Hard Spun have), Street Sense has gone the wrong way. With AGS, he improved a ton in winning the Dwyer and the Haskell but I think his last race tempered a lot of the growing enthusiam about him. I feel that if Curlin and Lawyer Ron both run theirs, they are the only two that matter here. And I'm leery of that happening. The JCGC was a very tough race and it wouldn't be surprising to see one of them regress from it. For Lawyer Ron, it was his third straight 114+ race. Can he produce a fourth straight, all in the span of two months, at a distance that's a touch beyond his best, with another quality horse like Hard Spun challenging him up front instead of the pig from the JCGC?

I know all of this has made it seem like I'm sold on Nobiz having a shot to win. I'm not at all. I just am less sold on the quality and strengths of the others than it seems like most people are.

[horseofcourse]

I can't believe the abuse Nobiz takes on these boards. Incredible. This is a darn good horse. I thought he ran his career high dirt Beyer his last time out on dirt losing to AGS or am I missing something?? Wouldn't that show improvement? Turf Beyers are a complete waste of time. I saw a horse running fast at the end of the Jamaica. He's had a very nice year. Nothing else noteworthy here.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I can't believe the abuse Nobiz takes on these boards. Incredible. This is a darn good horse. I thought he ran his career high dirt Beyer his last time out on dirt losing to AGS or am I missing something?? Wouldn't that show improvement? Turf Beyers are a complete waste of time. I saw a horse running fast at the end of the Jamaica. He's had a very nice year. Nothing else noteworthy here.

He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.

Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.

Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.

Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.

[King Glorious]

Master Command is out.
Zanjero is out.
Grasshopper is out.
Diamond Stripes is likely going to the Dirt Mile.
Political Force is out.
Student Council may run in Japan.