Classic

miraja2 · #1 10-05-2007, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

Danzig · #2 10-05-2007, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.

Danzig · #3 10-05-2007, 08:46 AM

and as for the 07 preakness comparing to this years classic, i think lawyer ron and political force are better than the likes of mint slewlep, flying first class, etc etc.

miraja2 · #4 10-05-2007, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.

Who knows? But I really don't think that matters. Using the outcome of 9f races on polytrack to determine which horse will prevail going 10f on dirt is rather unwise. Street Sense never seems to win on the tires.
Hard Spun has stretched out beyond 9f on the dirt three times. He is 0 for 3. Lawyer Ron is 0 for 3 at 10f. Could either of these win the Classic? Sure. But I am most likely looking elewhere (unless the track indicates a STRONG bias in their favor).

Danzig · #5 10-05-2007, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No it wouldn't have, but that was essentially a match race. The Classic will probably be at least 10 or so starters and no free rides.

right, so who thinks street sense will get the same sweet trip he got in the derby? he will be impacted more by the field then a front runner.

#6 10-05-2007, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

right, so who thinks street sense will get the same sweet trip he got in the derby? he will be impacted more by the field then a front runner.

I think he'll be closer to the pace but will get the rail turning for home.

Why? Because jockeys are morons.

philcski · #7 10-05-2007, 09:29 AM

you know what's the best part of all of this SS/HS debate?

the fact that we're even able to have it. when was the last time the top 3 finishers even made it to the Classic?

philcski · #8 10-05-2007, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

His trip was no sweeter than Hard Spun who was loose on the lead. Any of the other 19 could have ridden that rail. No one did. Not his fault. It's not like it was a surprise that Borel likes the rail and Street Sense seemingly prefers to run on the rail. And he has yet to be impacted by a field. If you can navigate a rail trip coming from well off of the pace, in a 20 horse field, you're pretty athletic and have a pretty quick burst. I'm confident he'll run his race. Now, it may not be good enough, but that's the fun.

It'll be good enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same triple as the Derby

NoLuvForPletch · #9 10-05-2007, 09:50 AM

So I am up front, Hard Spun is my guy, but as I've said before it's hard to fathom him winning at 10f. They thing I'd like to interject is that I'm not sure Street Sense is the same horse he was in May, or maybe the others have caught up. He beat nobody in the Jim Dandy. Barely held on against Grasshopper, and we all know what happened to him in his next out. Then looked somewhat happless chasing Hard Spun in the KCC. How many times can Nafzger work his magic? At this point it looks like Any Given Saturday could be the one and that makes me ill.

#10 10-05-2007, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

So I am up front, Hard Spun is my guy, but as I've said before it's hard to fathom him winning at 10f. They thing I'd like to interject is that I'm not sure Street Sense is the same horse he was in May, or maybe the others have caught up. He beat nobody in the Jim Dandy. Barely held on against Grasshopper, and we all know what happened to him in his next out. Then looked somewhat happless chasing Hard Spun in the KCC. How many times can Nafzger work his magic? At this point it looks like Any Given Saturday could be the one and that makes me ill.

He's still got 2 charges left on his wand. Might need more mana, though.

brockguy · #11 10-05-2007, 02:42 PM

i got the 16-1 available with ladbrokes on hard spun.. I think Street Sense is the real deal and last week was a perfect prep but that 16-1 looked way too big.

Travis Stone · #12 10-05-2007, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

His trip was no sweeter than Hard Spun who was loose on the lead.

This is a solid point. And the same applies for the Kentucky Cup Classic.

We also have to remember that jockey's ride the race as well. And John Velazquez aboard Lawyer Ron will take the race to Hard Spun a bit earlier if he thinks Mario Pino is too loose-on-the-lead. It could spell disaster, but jockey's know they can't let Hard Spun get away too freely.

If Wanderin Boy or someone like that enters the race, this all becomes moot.

Danzig · #13 10-05-2007, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

His trip was no sweeter than Hard Spun who was loose on the lead. Any of the other 19 could have ridden that rail. No one did. Not his fault. It's not like it was a surprise that Borel likes the rail and Street Sense seemingly prefers to run on the rail. And he has yet to be impacted by a field. If you can navigate a rail trip coming from well off of the pace, in a 20 horse field, you're pretty athletic and have a pretty quick burst. I'm confident he'll run his race. Now, it may not be good enough, but that's the fun.

all true as well....anxious for the big day for sure!