Classic

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Don't act like you are smoking out some huge longshot. You yourself said after the KY Cup Classic that your price on Hard Spun was now lost. He will not be 12-1, maybe half of that.

He's 12/1 right now in the future market open to the poster who I was responding to.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll pass on Europe....

Did you actually think I wasn't going to mention that speculation driven contest?

I'm really a big Street Sense fan you know! You have it all wrong!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Change it to either Brady or Moss. You make the pick.

I'll take the one you don't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If that's the case, go with Pennington in a Marshall jersey.

[NoChanceToDance]

The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.