Classic

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm sure he is anticipating the Monmouth Park track to be as speed favoring as it was in the summer.

And, if by saying he's going to "send him" and "let him roll" he can bait Hard Spun into being the one who rates from 2nd - Lawyer Ron is a complete and utter lock in the Classic.

Hard Spun needs the lead, Lawyer Ron doesn't, and no rider trys to avoid being in head-to-head battles more than Velazquez.

I think the odds that these two horses duel for the lead are very slim. And Lawyer Ron only has the lead if Hard Spun doesn't break well, or breaks well and Pino doesn't want it.

Originally Posted by miraja2

DrugS, what you say about Lawyer Ron makes sense, but according to Pletcher, he is going to do the exact opposite of what you spelled out.
According to this article (http://www.drf.com/news/article/89024.html):
"Pletcher said he would train Lawyer Ron a little harder going into the Classic, and said he and jockey John Velazquez believe it might be best to let Lawyer Ron roll early, rather than try and ration his speed."
Now of course, he could be bluffing and might actually intend a completely different strategy. If he is telling the truth however, that doesn't seem to bode well for Hard Spun at all.

Lawyer Ron showed he was itchy again early. He settled down nicely (not hard with that field), but he waisted some energy early. JV did not have the smooth go early on that he might have liked so I can see how he might feel this way.

I'm not convinced Curlin can handle the turns at Monmouth.

Street Sense/Any Given Saturday/Hard Spun/High Cholesterol

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

As of right now, 3 weeks before I am between Street Sense, AGS and Curlin. I don't have a strong opinion on either one yet, only that Street Sense is better than you think.

As of right now, I'm between two horses....and one of my horses is clearly a bigger price than anyone of your three.

How am I covering my ass by saying if the race was run right now, I'd bet a Hard Spun/Lawyer Ron exacta box...and if I had to play a future right now, I'd take one of those two?

[miraja2]

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.

Originally Posted by miraja2

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.

Yeah. How about them Cubs?

[miraja2]

Well, as a lifelong Cubs-hater, discussing their poor performace in the playoffs would make me quite happy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.

Not when future wagers are being discussed. And I responded to the posting of future wagers.

That's what I liked most about the original TVG fantasy contest...you had to handicap races three and four weeks in advance, and a lot of people just wrongly assumed that it's impossible to gauge how likely a race will be run weeks before entries are drawn. As well as wrongly assuming that tendencies for tracks about to open are impossible to know until races have been run over them.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Not when future wagers are being discussed.

Fair enough.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Don't act like you are smoking out some huge longshot. You yourself said after the KY Cup Classic that your price on Hard Spun was now lost. He will not be 12-1, maybe half of that.

He's 12/1 right now in the future market open to the poster who I was responding to.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll pass on Europe....

Did you actually think I wasn't going to mention that speculation driven contest?

I'm really a big Street Sense fan you know! You have it all wrong!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Change it to either Brady or Moss. You make the pick.

I'll take the one you don't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If that's the case, go with Pennington in a Marshall jersey.

[NoChanceToDance]

The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

The markets are interesting, and they will vary a great deal between the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few bookmakers over here that will have so called American experts, but what they know about the sport over can there can be written on a postal stamp.

Hard Spun will only get bigger than 12/1 over here because everyone is discounting him by saying "oh, he'll get caught" There is a possibility he will, but there is also enough reasoning to suggest that he won't, and while he price is getting bigger and bigger there is more and more reason to bet him.

Give it another two weeks and i think he will be closer to 16/1.

Street Sense cannot be given away over here, he isn't a horse that we 'euros' are too keen on. Everyone i speak to that follows American racing is of the opinion that he got very lucky in the KY Derby, and has looked slightly regressive since. Maybe his 2yo campaign is starting to have an affect on him?? Hard to say either way though.

AGS is the horse that the bookmakers have been taking most money for as i'm aware. He is a horse that i think will improve by going further. Many don't agree with me on this, but i think there is an outside chance that he will be even better over 10furlongs.

I'm surprised Lawyer Ron isn't bigger than he is right now, he opened in most markets as the 10/3 fav but hasn't really drifted that much after his defeat to Curlin. I was of the opinion that he would be outstayed in the classic.

As DrugS said, the race all boils down to one horse really, and that is Hard Spun. Not saying he will win, but a lot depends on him. Will he have to go hard early? Will he get a fairly easy time of it up front. On will Pino do an intelligent thing by going hard early, and then slowing the gallop down with a about four to run to stack the field up, and make it hard for the closers? That is something i'd like to see the American jocks do more often. If He could pull that off then the race would be surely between him and Lawyer Ron, while the closers will be having all sorts of problems.

While it isn't a superb field (in my opinion) it will be an interesting race from a tactical point of view.

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig

can't help but wonder if lawyer ron will be the roses in may to hard spun as ghostzapper.

and before anyone makes the leap, no, i'm not saying hard spun is on the same level as GZ. just that the race could be run in similar fashion.

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I honestly don't see the race unfolding that way at all. Unless the track is a complete merry-go-round again, I have to favor Curlin and Street Sense over the two of them at 10f. People seem to be assuming that if Hard Spun gets loose on the lead he will win.
Well he DID get loose on the lead the last time he went 10f, and it still didn't matter. I think the finish of this race might look a lot more like the '07 Preakness than the '04 Classic.

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.

[Danzig]

and as for the 07 preakness comparing to this years classic, i think lawyer ron and political force are better than the likes of mint slewlep, flying first class, etc etc.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig

do you think an extra furlong would have changed the outcome between Hard spun and street sense at turfway? i don't.

Who knows? But I really don't think that matters. Using the outcome of 9f races on polytrack to determine which horse will prevail going 10f on dirt is rather unwise. Street Sense never seems to win on the tires.
Hard Spun has stretched out beyond 9f on the dirt three times. He is 0 for 3. Lawyer Ron is 0 for 3 at 10f. Could either of these win the Classic? Sure. But I am most likely looking elewhere (unless the track indicates a STRONG bias in their favor).

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No it wouldn't have, but that was essentially a match race. The Classic will probably be at least 10 or so starters and no free rides.

right, so who thinks street sense will get the same sweet trip he got in the derby? he will be impacted more by the field then a front runner.