hypothetical derby

Here's the bottom line, folks ...

Run this race ten times ... and you'll get ten different winners.

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

Here's the bottom line, folks ...

Run this race ten times ... and you'll get ten different winners.

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.

I agree with this. But if Empire Maker and Point Given are healthy, I give them a slight edge with Smarty around as well.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I agree with this. But if Empire Maker and Point Given are healthy, I give them a slight edge with Smarty around as well.

But ...

... but both of those guys were healthy when they ran in the actual race ... and neither won.

Anyhow ... this is a fun thread. I make 6 the under/over on the number of pages it will run.

[randallscott35]

BB,

You should know that Empire Maker was far from healthy when he ran in that race. He was damn near running with a bar shoe.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

BB,

You should know that Empire Maker was far from healthy when he ran in that race. He was damn near running with a bar shoe.

That's right ... I forgot ...

... Frankel always runs sore horses ... he's such a taskmaster ... pumping race after race into his horses without a letup.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

But ... both of those guys were healthy when they ran in the actual race ... and neither won. Anyhow ... this is a fun thread. I make 6 the under/over on the number of pages it will run.

BB,

I absolutely hated EM at the time and savaged Frankel in writing for the way he acted towards Tagg pre-Belmont, but the horse wasn't 100% Derby Day.. As for PG, he may have been "healthy", but he WAS short, and that hoof was almost NEVER "perfect" his whole soph season. I've maintained 2 things about Point Given:

1.) I've suggested that he instinctively "chose" to not run all out on that rock hard Downs surface that day.. That track ruined Monarchos, Invisible Ink, Thunder Blitz and others, and it took a long time for Congaree to get right afterwards as well.

2.) His win in the Haskell was testimony to how great he was. He was totally off in the problem hoof that day and still got up on a speed favoring surface running against a negative pace scenario for him.

[31lengths]

There are no standouts in this bunch ... and every one of them has big, big built-in excuses for their losses.[/quote]

That could be said for EVERY Derby winner who didn't lose a race before the Derby.

[slotdirt]

OT, but I got upgraded from a non-existent track to a training track? That's a promotion in posting status?

[Unbridled]

Im with Scavs here.........Empire Maker in a walkover. Go to the windows with both fists full.

[slotdirt]

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

[JJP]

Thx

There will always be some disagreement in these type of theoretical matchups. Its a lot tougher making a line on 20 great horses in a race than the standard 7 horse field with 2 standouts and 2 fillers.

I see what Kasept is saying. In that field, there would likely be an insane pace and Monarchos comes to mind as being a deep closer. But he never won again after the Derby, and he had the absolutely perfect pace setup. I caught that trifecta for one of my biggest scores ever so nobody is a bigger Monarchos fan (and Invisible Ink fan as well) but in retrospect, I realize Point Given was a superior animal to Monarchos.

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

Dear Grand Master,

Sorry to have the temerity to Q this post, BUT EM's Derby was an abberation of Bobby's normal philosophy on conditioning. He was indeed having problems with his wheels. He wasn't even 100% in the Belmont.

I've always felt this horse was a lot better then the credit given him by the media and racing fans.

Yes, Your Wisdomness ... I agree that you know the Frankel barn as well as anyone ... including Mr. Bobby himself ... but ...

... what about Lost In The Fog in the Smile? Any comments, thoughts, suggestions?

No, wait ... forget about "suggestions" .. I already have a good idea what they would be.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

He would be in my tri box in this race. He is the only horse I have ever seen race live that I was in awe of after his race. I seriously said "WOW! There is my derby horse" after his Fla Derby win.

His mama can pop out some awesome babies.

[miraja2]

The other question is about the jocks.
Are we to assume that Prado is aboard Barbaro AND Birdstone, Bailey is on Empire Maker AND Red Bullet, etc? This definitely looks like a jocks' race to me.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by miraja2

The other question is about the jocks.
Are we to assume that Prado is aboard Barbaro AND Birdstone, Bailey is on Empire Maker AND Red Bullet, etc? This definitely looks like a jocks' race to me.

Who does Gary ride? 10 or Point Given? Guessing Point Given. I will ride 10 for him..

[Unbridled]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Empire Maker...no horse has been hyped with fewer results than this guy in the last 15 years. Not a chance here.

He won the G2 Remsen as a 2yo, 3 top level 3you races: G1 Florida Derby (a field that he whipped), G1 Wood, and the G1 Belmont..........2nd in the Derby w/ a bad foot, kinda difficult to run on a lame wheel and 2nd in the Jim Dandy on concrete-esque, speed favoring track at the Spa. Overhyped? I guess so since he didnt win the Belmont by 31 lengths.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Giacomo - throw out 20th
Rock Hard Ten - throw out 16th
Congaree - throw out (eary pace setter) 13th
Aptitude - throw out 15th
Peace Rules - Fades to 11th
Birdstone - finishes strong but comes of short of the money 7th
Point Given - if healthy and get a good ride--possibly 2nd
Barbaro - The most likely winner 1st
Afleet Alex - gets a piece of the money 3rd
Smarty Jones - makes a move but runs out of gas 8th
Fu Peg - Takes tons of money and finishes 17th
Empire Maker - trouble trip, finishes 4th
War Emblem - gets caught up in speed duel with Congaree, 19th
Funny Cide - makes middle move, finishes 5th
Bernardini - Intriguing play, lack of experience is a negative, finishes 9th
Red Bullet - Not a bad horse, finishes 6th
Monarchos - Trouble trip from the 17 hole, finishes 10th
Perfect Drift - others pass him, 14th
Ten Most Wanted - yeah right, 18th
Proud Citizen - good closer, finishes 12th

Perfect Drift 14th and Rock Hard Ten 16th huh? Buffy isn't going to be happy with you!

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Perfect Drift 14th and Rock Hard Ten 16th huh? Buffy isn't going to be happy with you!

I chose to ignore it mira...

Besides Perfect Drift was MUCH better than 10 was at age three (at the time of the derby). Not that I didn't love 10 then, but I think he needed time to mature into his huge self.

PD would be in my tri box with probably Barbaro and Empire Maker.

Originally Posted by avance2000

ok guys im new to the site - a friend referred me to it - but i wanted to post this question to you. i was having a debate with a friend of mine about a hypothetical race between the triple crown horses of this decade - 2000 + - and who would win. so here is the criteria we came up with.
taking into consideration only how the horses were in may and june of their 3yo year we came up with our field of 20. horses like flower alley that got good later on in their 3yo year were not included.
so if this was the field - post position included - going 1.25 miles at churchill downs on a fast track, who would you take?

pp

1] giacomo
2] rock hard ten
3] congaree
4] aptitude
5] peace rules
6] birdstone
7] point given
8] barbaro
9] afleet alex
10] smarty jones
11] fusaichi pegasus
12] empire maker
13] war emblem
14] funny cide
15] bernardini
16] red bullet
17] monarchos
18] perfect drift
19] ten most wanted
20] proud citizen

You have to look at this list carefully, the Derby is like no ther race in the world. It takes a special animal to win this race. Many horses have come in with much more talent that the eventual winner of the race. With this said there are only 7 horses on this list that won the "real" derby. Those 7 are Giacomo, Barbaro, Smarty, Fu Peg, War Emblem, Monarchos and Funny Cide. Now out of those 7 I am certain that most agree the Giacomo and War Emblem were the two so called "flukes." Bit out of those 7, Barbaro was the most impressive winner of the Derby. Barbaro would get the 1st jump on everone and no one would be able to catch him. Barbaro would be sitting 3rd or 4th behind a FAST FAST pace set by Congaree, War Emblem and Peace Rules. He would get past them at the top of the stretch and win by a length.

Now out of the horses that didnt win the Derby, Point Given was the most talented of this bunch. His win in the Belmont was one of the most stunning performances I have ever seen.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Without knowing the posttime odds.... I'll make a tri. Ticket..
ALL / ALL / ALL
and see you @ the windows !!
If you want to and another ALL... make it a super ticket !