Classic

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd say more like
Curlin 4/1
Street Sense 9/2
Lawyer Ron 5/1
Any Given Saturday 6/1
Hard Spun 8/1
Tiago 12/1

I think your odds are a lot closer to reality, however even in this scenario, if there's a full field of 14, every other horse would be 25-1 or higher. More than likely one of the 6 gets overlooked and goes off at 15-1, especially if one or two go lower than 4/1.

[NoChanceToDance]

Looking at a few bookmakers odds over here, The average odds of horses are as follows.

Curlin 9/2
Lawyer Ron 9/2
Any Given Saturday 5/1 (he has well well supported over here)
Street Sense 11/2 (very weak in the market)
Hard Spun 12/1
George Washington 16/1 (he has no chance)
Tiago 18/1
Student Council 20/1
Awesome Gem 25/1
Surf Cat 33/1
Diamond Stripes 33/1

[Mike]

I see no intersting longshot in the Classic(from the probables mentioned), looks like a win bet only is in order for me, at this point, probably Curlin

Can anyone remind me of George Washington's dirt experience(or breeding)?

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Mike

I see no intersting longshot in the Classic(from the probables mentioned), looks like a win bet only is in order for me, at this point, probably Curlin

Can anyone remind me of George Washington's dirt experience(or breeding)?

Well, he is by Danehill....... need you know anymore?

His run in last year's classic was pretty good (6th) at the time, but that was when he was in great form. He is yet to win this year and after a brief spell at stud, he has looked a shadow of the horse he was as a 3yo.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Looking at a few bookmakers odds over here, The average odds of horses are as follows.

Curlin 9/2
Lawyer Ron 9/2
Any Given Saturday 5/1 (he has well well supported over here)
Street Sense 11/2 (very weak in the market)
Hard Spun 12/1
George Washington 16/1 (he has no chance)
Tiago 18/1
Student Council 20/1
Awesome Gem 25/1
Surf Cat 33/1
Diamond Stripes 33/1

As of right now, I'd say LR and Hard Spun are two best values on that board.

The way Lawyer Ron got beat was a tremendous benefit to the chances of Hard Spun.

He was pulling early and was nailed in the very late stages of the stretch run by joint futures favorite Curlin.

I think you'll see Pletcher try to train a little bit of the speed out of Lawyer Ron coming into the Classic, and I think Velazquez will do what Velazquez almost always does in this situation...which is give Hard Spun a fairly unpressured free ride on the lead, while taking the pressure off his own horse and stalking comfortably from 2nd.

While JRV would be conceding an advantage to Hard Spun, he gains by avoiding a duel with the front runner (which would surely lead to both of them being defeated) and by allowing his horse to have more in reserve late for the challenges that will come from the horses just behind him (Any Given Saturday, Curlin, and Street Sense)

Velazquez can only give Hard Spun a free ride on the lead, and place himself in the dream rating comfortably from second spot if no other horse in the race chooses to press Lawyer Ron early.

On that board, the only horse who could logically do something like that is Any Given Saturday. And you have to remember, AGS is ridden by the conservative Garret Gomez. He's trained by Lawyer Ron's trainer, which probably decreases the chances he will force the hand of LR, thus causing LR to make HS quicken. Also, Any Given Saturday has hung several times when used prematurely in past races.

If there is no unexpected cheap speed entered, and the Monmouth track is playing as speed favoring as it was for much of the summer, I look for Hard Spun and Lawyer Ron to cinch up the top two spots...it would just be a matter if LR has enough in the final furlong to wear down a dream trip Hard Spun.

If the race is run in that scenerio, it's very possible that if something is able to rally wide and finish a competitive 3rd they will have run the best race of anyone...but will have suffered a strictly circumstantial loss.

Obviously, a lot of things can change between now and race day. Some entirely hopeless speed horse could pass the Dirt Mile and run in the Classic. Or, perhaps the Monmouth track isn't the inside-speed favoring paradise it was for much of the summer.

However, right now, it still looks like the speed has this race on a platter. And Hard Spun is the fastest of the group, and is the horse who needs the lead the most (he can be pretty moderate when he doesn't get it)

Lawyer Ron is the only one on that board who could deny him the lead, but pressing the front-runner isn't his riders style, it's probably not the horses best style, and he could be swallowed late if the idiotic tactic of keeping Hard Spun honest is employed.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Explain why?

11/2 on Street Sense is a gift. He'll be 7/2 at best.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

11/2 on Street Sense is a gift. He'll be 7/2 at best.

What we need is a few more negitive stories..like he worked to fast... or Carl scratched his head too long and it means he is concerned..some questioning media article and we can get 4-1..at that point it's back up the truck! I agree with DaHoss ..he has been pointed to this race by a trainer that knows what the hell he is doing....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Crinkle

Trash Can

And if you say "because the entries haven't been drawn yet and you don't know who is in the field" - you'll earn your post a special place in the Tard Hall of Fame, because I was responding to posted future book odds.

[miraja2]

DrugS, what you say about Lawyer Ron makes sense, but according to Pletcher, he is going to do the exact opposite of what you spelled out.
According to this article (http://www.drf.com/news/article/89024.html):
"Pletcher said he would train Lawyer Ron a little harder going into the Classic, and said he and jockey John Velazquez believe it might be best to let Lawyer Ron roll early, rather than try and ration his speed."
Now of course, he could be bluffing and might actually intend a completely different strategy. If he is telling the truth however, that doesn't seem to bode well for Hard Spun at all.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm sure he is anticipating the Monmouth Park track to be as speed favoring as it was in the summer.

And, if by saying he's going to "send him" and "let him roll" he can bait Hard Spun into being the one who rates from 2nd - Lawyer Ron is a complete and utter lock in the Classic.

Hard Spun needs the lead, Lawyer Ron doesn't, and no rider trys to avoid being in head-to-head battles more than Velazquez.

I think the odds that these two horses duel for the lead are very slim. And Lawyer Ron only has the lead if Hard Spun doesn't break well, or breaks well and Pino doesn't want it.

Originally Posted by miraja2

DrugS, what you say about Lawyer Ron makes sense, but according to Pletcher, he is going to do the exact opposite of what you spelled out.
According to this article (http://www.drf.com/news/article/89024.html):
"Pletcher said he would train Lawyer Ron a little harder going into the Classic, and said he and jockey John Velazquez believe it might be best to let Lawyer Ron roll early, rather than try and ration his speed."
Now of course, he could be bluffing and might actually intend a completely different strategy. If he is telling the truth however, that doesn't seem to bode well for Hard Spun at all.

Lawyer Ron showed he was itchy again early. He settled down nicely (not hard with that field), but he waisted some energy early. JV did not have the smooth go early on that he might have liked so I can see how he might feel this way.

[miraja2]

Until we know how the track is playing that weekend, this all seems like a relatively pointless conversation.

I'm not convinced Curlin can handle the turns at Monmouth.

Street Sense/Any Given Saturday/Hard Spun/High Cholesterol

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

As of right now, 3 weeks before I am between Street Sense, AGS and Curlin. I don't have a strong opinion on either one yet, only that Street Sense is better than you think.

As of right now, I'm between two horses....and one of my horses is clearly a bigger price than anyone of your three.

How am I covering my ass by saying if the race was run right now, I'd bet a Hard Spun/Lawyer Ron exacta box...and if I had to play a future right now, I'd take one of those two?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Don't act like you are smoking out some huge longshot. You yourself said after the KY Cup Classic that your price on Hard Spun was now lost. He will not be 12-1, maybe half of that.

He's 12/1 right now in the future market open to the poster who I was responding to.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'll pass on Europe....

Did you actually think I wasn't going to mention that speculation driven contest?

I'm really a big Street Sense fan you know! You have it all wrong!