Fab strike

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Because, he can lose to horses far LESS than "the best" and he can decimate "the best" if he catches them in the right spot.

First of all - let's define who "the best" horses are in this sprint division right now.

If you believe the Watchmaker Watch and the TVG sprint poll, it's Midnight Lute and Smokey Stover - as the two clear-cut consensus choices in that division.

Both of those two have been defeated at six furlongs by a Cal Bred named Sailors Sunset. Now, since Sailors Sunset has beaten both the #1 and #2 ranked horse in both polls - should he be a sprinter taken seriously? Of course not! - because the fact that he beat the best horses means NOTHING when you consider the circumstance edge he had!

In both victories he took advantage of unpressured leads and proved too elusive of a target.

Unlike last year, when the top races in the sprint division often seemed to be one moderate paced big race after another - there are many one-way speed horses in the division right now.

If you remember last year, Thor's Echo hadn't won a single race of any kind in 18 months going into the Breeders Cup Sprint - trainer Doug O' Neill wanted to run him in an allowance race at Oak Tree, but it didn't fill, so he entered him in the Ancient Title the next day where he ran 2nd at huge odds and got a big speed figure.

Thor's Echo was 15/1 in the Breeders Cup Sprint because he hadn't won in forever, was routinely beaten in cal bred races, and was a 4-year-old who had never won a Graded Stake in his life inspite of repeated tries...thus he lacked "the class" to win.

It turns out, in a race lacking much speed, his only asset, combined with a great trip was good enough for a very easy 4 length win.

You act as though Fabulous Strike will never catch top horses in a race void of one-way speed. I believe there is a very good chance he will at some point, and when he does, he will dominate.

On many occasions, horses of FAR lesser ability than FS have beaten multiple great horses of FAR greater status than any of the top horses in the sprint divison.

The moderate Angle Light (who was 3-for-20 lifetime with ZERO stakes wins not counting the Wood) beat two greats in Sham and Secretariat when he wasn't pressed on the lead. Mr. Zippity Do Dah beat greats like Gulch and Bet Twice in the same race when he wasn't pressed.

If Fabulous Strike isn't pressed, he will beat anything in his division. And if you think he will always catch fields over-flowing with speed and get pressed in top class sprint races against the divisions best horse - you are dreaming.

And you are dreaming if you think this horse will ever catch a soft enough field to win a G 1 race. He caught his slow early graded field at Churchill. And anyone who doesn't look at the CD race time with a jaundiced eye must believe not only Fabulous Strike's close but also Cougar Cat's as well. Who can really believe Cougar Cat sat close and closed up in 23 2/5?

And his fields are not always overflowing with horses of any kind, much less filled with speeed. In the Aristides, he beat four horses. In the Panhandle, he beat three horses. In his two Belmont wins he beat four horses.

FS is a very fast, fun horse to watch. I admire him and you for liking him.

As an aside, a lot of people think Secretariat was far from his best going into the Wood.