Fab strike

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally, I think one of the worst things anyone can do is form a strong opinion without reviewing the pps after the draw. I understand we all have our own personal biases, but deciding against a horse, without objectively seeing the race on paper, is a certain road to losing.

I understand the criticisms of Fabulous Strike, and don't even necessarily disagree, but to me, it is impossible to have an informed and definitive opinion over a day before the race is even drawn. At least as far as potential contenders are concerned.

[SentToStud]

That's true. Then again, if the race comes up solid (as I mentioned), it's not unreasonable to think he's a bad play at an ssumed modest number. Sure, he could end up lone speed and have a solid shot. But then he'd be a real short number and I wouldn't trust him enough.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Personally, I think one of the worst things anyone can do is form a strong opinion without reviewing the pps after the draw. I understand we all have our own personal biases, but deciding against a horse, without objectively seeing the race on paper, is a certain road to losing.

I understand the criticisms of Fabulous Strike, and don't even necessarily disagree, but to me, it is impossible to have an informed and definitive opinion over a day before the race is even drawn. At least as far as potential contenders are concerned.

Yet we ALL do it ALL the time. I don't see anyone waiting until after the draw before discussing the Derby. We discuss the Derby and the merits (or lack thereof) of the potential starters all winter. We've been discussing the BC since the beginning of the summer. Should we stop that too since we don't know exactly who will show up where and what their post positions will be? It's not like I'm discounting Fabulous Strike's chances in the 2008 BC Sprint. I'm considering the likely field for a race a day before the draw. Obviously, if they draw the field and Discreet Cat and many of the other top contenders aren't entered and we end up with a field of Fabulous Strike against First Defence and Teuflesburg, I would change my opinion of his chances.

I just don't find it as silly, if u have been watching the horses on a regular basis and are familiar with them, to have an opinion on them in a race based on who they are likely to face.

[blackthroatedwind]

Using the Kentucky Derby as your analogous race in this case is as ridiculous as your example of La Traviata in the Classic. Obviously the Derby is a different example and even then it is best to wait until the draw to make definitive opinions.

Somehow I think most of us know a lot more about the horses in the Derby, and their recent efforts, than this year's Vosburgh. Or, perhaps you can recite the running lines of every entrant in this year's Vosburgh?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Using the Kentucky Derby as your analogous race in this case is as ridiculous as your example of La Traviata in the Classic.

No it wasn't.

The La Traviata in the Classic example might stand the test of time.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No it wasn't.

The La Traviata in the Classic example might stand the test of time.

I was being nice.

I swear.