Arlington safety...putting it in perspective

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Your stats are not really that revealing because they are just three plain numbers that are completely without context or reasoning. Just 3 seemingly random numbers.
Now if you would take the time to examine the conditions of the horses who broke down and incorporated that data into the mix we would have a better idea of what the original numbers mean.
If 10 out of the 12 breakdowns this year were big dropdowns in class (25k to 5k for example) then those would have to be considered suspicous and taken in that context. On the same note the previous years breakdowns should be analyzed also. To use such a small sample size and count breakdowns in obvious negative situations and horses in Stakes or allowance races as the same is misleading.

Now I remember this discussion coming up in August and after reviewing the horses who had not finished one week, 2 were big drops, one was a cheap horse with rapidly deteoritating form, and one was reported to have had a heart attack. What most of you dont understand and the few of you that should refuse to acknowledge is that many horses who breakdown were put into that position by the human connections and were probably doomed eventually regardless of surface. The propaganda put out by the tracks making this stuff seem so much safer than dirt has led to many owners sending sore horses to run over these tracks as though they would heal thier brokedown legs. The fact is that in 90% of the breakdowns, the surface has nothing to do with it.

Cannon,

I agree, but this was my point. Isn't this the exact same kind of statistics that were used to show that either "polytrack is great" or "we need polytrack"! They were meaningless when "pro" poly just as they are meaningless when "anti" poly. The difference is hardly anyone was willing to acknowledge that point last year, but suddenly when it goes against the safety line everyone can see the flaws.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Cannon,

I agree, but this was my point. Isn't this the exact same kind of statistics that were used to show that either "polytrack is great" or "we need polytrack"! They were meaningless when "pro" poly just as they are meaningless when "anti" poly. The difference is hardly anyone was willing to acknowledge that point last year, but suddenly when it goes against the safety line everyone can see the flaws.

Bingo. I haven't heard anyone say how many of the breakdowns at AP in 2006 were from big class dropdowns. Certainly, the Chicago Tribune never mentioned it. So I guess its ok to mention only the breakdowns if you are pro-synth. Part of the blame for the one sided media coverage must go to TVG. Simon Bray and Frank Lyons kept droning on and on how wonderful it is......"just like European racing....the field canters toward the quarter pole, then everyone starts trying". To Carruthers credit, I haven't heard him throwing bouquets toward the Polytrack crowd.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Cannon,

I agree, but this was my point. Isn't this the exact same kind of statistics that were used to show that either "polytrack is great" or "we need polytrack"! They were meaningless when "pro" poly just as they are meaningless when "anti" poly. The difference is hardly anyone was willing to acknowledge that point last year, but suddenly when it goes against the safety line everyone can see the flaws.

Understood but what difference does it really make?