Saturday's Results

[GPK]

Didn't I read somewhere that he said his crop of 2yo's this year just really isn't as good as years past?

[GPK]

After the cobra venom found in Biancones barn...wonder if others sat up and took notice?

Originally Posted by GPK

After the cobra venom found in Biancones barn...wonder if others sat up and took notice?

Maybe the labs have caught up with shiat and soon who knows he just might heat up when his people develope the new shiat that passes untill word gets out and atest is found for the new crap or could it be other trainers got his cocktail and table s might be evening a little all that would is 1 groom to get pissed and leave and he was in the know

[sumitas]

that's about right. TP is no wunderkind and his horses are there to make money for the big time owners. Does he cheat ? It starting to look like it isn't it ? Let's keep the testing and regulations going to bring these big time frauds down to reality.

[Hoist Her Flag]

There is something going on. The main thing I notice as a few have mentioned is the "re-breaking". Until I read that on here, I couldn't put a finger on it, but the last few years, his horses have had that "extra" down the stretch, I can't remember the horses name now, but there was a 7 furlong race at GP this winter. The horse dueled the entire 7 furlongs and pulled away late. AGS looked absolutely lethargic down the stretch yesterday. Octave and Fairbanks no extra gear. His 2 YO's have been bad this year so far.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

There is something going on. The main thing I notice as a few have mentioned is the "re-breaking". Until I read that on here, I couldn't put a finger on it, but the last few years, his horses have had that "extra" down the stretch, I can't remember the horses name now, but there was a 7 furlong race at GP this winter. The horse dueled the entire 7 furlongs and pulled away late. AGS looked absolutely lethargic down the stretch yesterday. Octave and Fairbanks no extra gear. His 2 YO's have been bad this year so far.

That's a great point about the "Re-Break"! The re-break has been what has differentiated Pletcher horses from all others. Sorry to join this thread so late, and I'm glad Andy brought this up. I've been thinking about it for a while, but didn't want to be called a "conspiracy theorist".
There is OBVIOUSLY something different with his barn.. and Mr Byck talks with the person who would have the most knowledge of what it is every Tuesday!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I know the majority of Pletcher horses really look like they are missing that added something - but super trainer Steve Asmussen is putting on a dazzling statistical exhibition at Presque Isle Downs.

He's 4-for-73 at the meet - and his record with post time favorites is a remarkable 1-for-30!

In fact, if you take out Catonight (an Asmussen 10K claimer who's 2-for-2 at the meet) - his record is 2-for-71 overall and 0-for-29 with post time favorites.

And it's not like his favorites have been lukewarm ones in wide open claiming races - they've mostly been overwhelming favorites.

I was even thinking of doing a piece about this - but, when you see the takeout rates and how the horse players are being treated here - it's hard to write about something as fluffy and flowery positive as a proven cheater coming off of a six month suspension and burning up enough money to fill the Grand Canyon.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Raysva

Maybe the labs have caught up with shiat and soon who knows he just might heat up when his people develope the new shiat that passes untill word gets out and atest is found for the new crap or could it be other trainers got his cocktail and table s might be evening a little all that would is 1 groom to get pissed and leave and he was in the know

I think something has been discovered and he is being scrutinized. There seems to be no other explanation for his sudden and sustained down swing. And when they do indeed catch him again, make him do his suspension during a meaningful time rather than in the dead of winter, like they did for his Saratoga suspension.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by GPK

Didn't I read somewhere that he said his crop of 2yo's this year just really isn't as good as years past?

That's something else I was going to bring up.. TP certainly did not dominate the 2yo races at Saratoga this year. That's always been a major contributor to his winning %.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

That's something else I was going to bring up.. TP certainly did not dominate the 2yo races at Saratoga this year. That's always been a major contributor to his winning %.

Honestly....its the price he pays for having English Channel stabled at Belmont during the week I was at Toga.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

Didn't I read somewhere that he said his crop of 2yo's this year just really isn't as good as years past?

He only won with one firster on the dirt in 2006 at Saratoga.

Maybe his crop isn't nearly as good as it has been in the past, though he certainly has the numbers ( maybe more ), but he dramatically underperformed across the board in Saratoga.

Here are his numbers for the previous five years....


2007 13 / 115 11% Wins 36% ITM 0.75 ROI

2006 24 / 116 21% 50% 1.73

2005 22 / 100 22% 49% 1.60

2004 33 / 120 27.5% 56% 1.80

2003 35 / 125 28% 57% 2.21


Overall 127 / 576 22% 50% 1.63

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He only won with one firster on the dirt in 2006 at Saratoga.

Maybe his crop isn't nearly as good as it has been in the past, though he certainly has the numbers ( maybe more ), but he dramatically underperformed across the board in Saratoga.

Here are his numbers for the previous five years....


2007 13 / 115 11% Wins 36% ITM 0.75 ROI

2006 24 / 116 21% 50% 1.73

2005 22 / 100 22% 49% 1.60

2004 33 / 120 27.5% 56% 1.80

2003 35 / 125 28% 57% 2.21


Overall 127 / 576 22% 50% 1.63

HUGE dropoff doesn't begin to describe it.

[sumitas]

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

[SuffolkGirl]

Maybe he is just spread a bit too thin. He gets great horses but really, they are just being thrown into the factory, albeit a formerly very efficient and effective factory.

I don't bet his horses to win, but I do need to remember to put them in exotics.

If owners come to the conclusion that he is spread too thin, maybe some other deserving trainers will get an opportunity.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SuffolkGirl

Maybe he is just spread a bit too thin. He gets great horses but really, they are just being thrown into the factory, albeit a formerly very efficient and effective factory.

I don't bet his horses to win, but I do need to remember to put them in exotics.

If owners come to the conclusion that he is spread too thin, maybe some other deserving trainers will get an opportunity.

don't hold your breath hun...

[Port Conway Lane]

I just checked his maidens in the last 30 days and while the results at the spa were below par he is 23% with all maidens. His top tier maidens appear to be below par. The graded stakes and allowance runners have been underperforming more so than his maidens.
I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I know the issue was discussed here, but I wonder: aren't people on the backstretch discussing Pletcher's recent numbers?

Yes. They are.

Eric

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Is it the horses ? Does he have the same staff as last year ? Did his suspension change his methods ?

i think that is a good, reasonable question.