Cotillion Handicap

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Good luck.

I guess part of my problem is that I think very little of Moon Catcher.

And even less of Delaware Park for the number of times you disparage the place....

... Moon Catcher has the best TGH number in the race at the distance and did beat the likes of Cotton Blossom, High Heels and Bear Now in a Grade II stake for what ever the grading system is worth these days at 8.5F.

I don't really have a strong desire to play Moon Catcher either but it wouldn't pass for evidence of utter insanity to take the horse with the best figure at the distance even if it did win a grade II at that State Fair track in Wilmington Delaware.

What the hell, when horses like Hard Spun and Barbaro come out of a snake pit like this winning the races they have the last couple years what can you expect??

The race isn't being run at the Spa where at times some Delaware shippers perform poorly, it's in Philly where Delaware form is no where near as much of a negative.

[miraja2]

What, no love for Syd N Carly's Rose? I have always felt that running seventh (out of eight) in an ungraded stakes race was the perfect setup for a G2 race featuring five graded stakes winners.
I agree with DaHoss that this one (like a lot of races featuring Octave) is probably a no-bet. The only thing that makes less sense to me than betting Octave here, is trying to beat her here. I'll pass.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by miraja2

What, no love for Syd N Carly's Rose? I have always felt that running seventh (out of eight) in an ungraded stakes race was the perfect setup for a G2 race featuring five graded stakes winners.
.

Is that angle listed in the DRF ?

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

The 3 fillies you just mentioned don't belong in the same sentence with Octave. I am all for trying to beat a favorite, especially a heavy one who I don't personally care for. But, as you have alluded to, Delaware form for some reason doesn't seem to translate at other tracks. Moon Catcher at least appears to do her best work at Delaware. It seems like her only shot is alone on the lead and there are other speeds in there.

This happens to be TGH race of the week so the sheets are there for everyone to see. I don't think we can say "Delaware doesn't seem to translate...." in all cases. It is true that many a heavy favorite shipper "at" Delaware have gone down hard on the dirt track. When we are talking about Delaware shippers the poor record at Saratoga is hardly the standard. The Spa at times plays like a glorified 6 week BC with the quality of horses in the majority of races run there. Optional claimers filled with graded stakes runners are not the norm at most tracks.

Having said that Trombetta shipped to the spa this summer and had some success so blanket devaluing is probably not good for your bankroll. Some very good trainers with national presence like Matz and Jones do alot of work there and bring success elsewhere. I still think Lake's New York failures have a chance of reversing somewhat. All I am saying is you can't throw out all stakes horses from Delaware.

For this race..

I like the angle about late developing 3 year olds who have improved recently continuing winning ways in this race and will try to beat Otave as well with Bear Now/Moon Catcher/Octave,Talking Bout Love and let the race hopefully bring value boxing combinations of these.

If Octave wins the race I lose if not I got a shot at decent payoffs.

[golfer]

The problem/question I have regarding Moon Catcher is, while her race 2 back was great and stands out in this field, it was what is termed an "isolated top" (by me anyway). That race was nearly 6 points better than anything she had run before, and in her last race she only got back to her previous level. I don't feel all that comfortable playing horses to get back to "isolated tops", unless the odds are extreme.
Any other TG users, (Steve?) have any opinions on what I just stated?

I would rate Bear Now and Talkin About Love higher, because they have both run their tops (2) twice.