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#1
07-17-2006, 05:33 PM
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#2
07-17-2006, 05:57 PM
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Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?
Saying that he is a "fraud" or "overrated" doesnt mean he is not a good horse. He demonstrated that he is a quality horse, maybe not an "all time great" or "the best sprinter in the country" but a quality horse none the less. But how can anyone with a logical unbiased brain not see that this horse is not anywhere close to what he was being billed as? Yes, he won some graded stake races last year, but against what? I know, I know...Ive heard it a million times- he beat what loaded into the gate. But still, does that really mean anything? What loaded into the gate is the magical question? Hot space? Social probation? better than bonds? Querreal? There was nothing in there to test him early and if there was, there was nothing of quality that was going to run him down last year. He has faced two fields that would have any semblance of quality and has been soundly thrashed in both. When do the excuses end? Are we that desperate for a hero? For those that disagree, please name me just ONE quality sprinter that he has beaten over the last two years and by quality i mean top ten. Just one. For those that disagree, how many open company races as he won? For those that disagree, name me ONE grade 1 sprint that you honestly think he would win at this point. Just one. Remember, this was a horse that was billed as "the eclipse champion" and an "all time great" by many. If he was being hailed as a good sprinter that was capable of stepping up and winning a couple of nice races, then "fraud" wouldnt be applicable. But after how he was hyped, races like the smile or the comebacker at golden gate should have been breezes.
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#3
07-17-2006, 06:26 PM
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You guys are just too caught up with the grade of the race. There were really no true Grade I horses last year. LITF had a much better record than anyone else last year. If you didn't give him the eclispe for best sprinter, you would have had to given it to Silver Train. People couldn't give it to Silver Train because his record was simply inferior to LITF. Both horses had pretty much run against 3 yer olds all year, but LITF was running against the best 3 year olds and he kept winning. ST was losing to medicore 3 year old. They weren't going to give the award to ST off the one big win. The rest of his year was just not good enough. Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 07-17-2006 at 06:39 PM.
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#4
07-17-2006, 06:39 PM
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You said earlier in this thread that you wont "judge him when he doesnt fire" but when do you judge him if that is the case? When he is dancing past overmatched garbage? Let me give you what i have heard over the last couple of months and tell me what you think: Sept 05- he doesnt need to go to belmont for a prep. Nah...he just needs to stay home and collect a check and not tire himself out before the big dance. This is one of the best sprinters of all time. Oct 05- (after bc loss) he just wasnt himself today. It just wasnt him. I mean- look who beat him. Those horses arent any good and it proves that he just wasnt right. Too much travel. April 06- He doesnt need to go to gulfstream for the richter scale or Aqueduct for the carter. For the first time out, lets just give him an easy preop. May 06- (after loss) The layoff and the weight took its toll. It wasnt the real foggy. You will see next time. June 06- (after aristides win) That was the real fog today. It didnt matter what he beat, he beat what dared to load against him. July 06- (after loss in smile) He didnt show up today. Nope- he didnt fire. Hes acting studdish. He has a quarter crack. The post hurt. He didnt like the track. He was giving too much weight. This wasnt the real fog. When is it ever going to be "the real fog" that loses? Horses dont "fire" for a reason and when you disregard the factors that lead to a hrose not "firing" you are being blinded by the hype. It seems fog doesnt "fire" when there is a horse in the race that is capable of beating him. Its as simple as that. He isnt a pig but he isnt close to being the best sprinter in the country. And if that is the case, he is a fraud.
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#5
07-19-2006, 08:49 AM
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Amazing. Goo-gooism at its finest. The fact that this horse has NEVER beaten a decent field and has lost every time he has faced one is not enough to convince the goo goos that this horse was overrated.
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#6
07-19-2006, 09:18 AM
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For those of you who were never members of the "other" forum ... ... it was I ... little old me ... who coined the term "goo-goo" 2+ years ago ... to describe the naďve dreamers who ... in the Spring of 2004 ... had declared that year's 3YOS to be the greatest crop in American history. So, yes ... I'll take both the credit ... and the blame ... for coining that term.
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#7
07-19-2006, 09:39 AM
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Who did Leroidisanimaux ever beat? He never beat any really good horses. When he finally faced a tough field in the BC Mile, he lost. I could make the same arguments that you guys made about practically any horse. There are only a few horses over the past 10 years, that you couldn't make these argumnets about. The only horses that you couldn't make such arguments about are horses that are pretty much undefeated and have beaten really good horses. The only horse I can think of that you could say that about would be Ghostzapper. He was practically undefeated and he beat a couple of very good horses in Saint Liam and Roses in May. But there's even a big knock on Ghostzapper. He hardly ever ran. You could argue that the only reason his recrd was so good was because he ran so infrequently. You guys think you're making these brilliant arguments but you're not. We know that LITF is not doing well. We know he's got physical problems. His trainer has been very concerned about these problems, so concerned that they may retire the horse in July. Horses don't retire in July unless they are hurt. What more do you need to know? Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 07-19-2006 at 09:41 AM.
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#8
07-19-2006, 09:46 AM
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Bing Crosby is coming up, or didn't they want him to lock up with Bordonaro?
__________________
I'm like evil, I get under your skin Just like a bomb that's ready to blow 'Cause I'm illegal, I got everything That all you women might need to know
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#9
07-19-2006, 12:47 PM
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Who did he beat? Name one quality field
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#10
07-19-2006, 12:53 PM
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Two words ... Andy Kaufman.
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#11
07-19-2006, 09:40 AM
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#12
07-17-2006, 06:38 PM
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[quote=dalakhani]Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?
According to that logic, every sprinter out there has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions. Silver Train gets beat time and time again. he's only won 6 times out of 16 races. According to your logic, he has proven time and time again that he is vastly overrated. You could say the same thing for every horse in that race on Saturday. LITF has hardly proven time and time again that he is overrated. He's only lost 3 times in his entire career. Don't give me that argument that his record is bad facing older horses in graded races. It's not true. He has faced older horses in graded races 3 times. He's won 1 out of 3. That means he's batting .333. That's probably a better batting average than practically every horse in that race on Saturay. How many of those are batting over .333 in graded races against older horses. Probably not too many. And many of us believe that LITF did not fire in his two defeats.
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#13
07-17-2006, 06:44 PM
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[quote=Rupert Pupkin]
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There wasnt a tenth of the hype surrounding any of the horses in that race compared to LITF. Not a tenth. Based on the hype, he should have spanked those horses regardless of the excuses. Quit trying to talk around the point here. The point is that he was vastly overrated. Can you actually disagree with that?
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#14
07-17-2006, 07:24 PM
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[quote=dalakhani]
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#15
07-17-2006, 08:43 PM
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Rupert
RP “You statement that "he fires in every race that fits the pace description and competition level that I previously gave and he mis-fires every time he is in against tough horses" is totally untrue. He's gone :43 1/5 and won by 10 lengths. “
That was at Golden Gate and it was a three horse field!!!! You should pay less attention to times and more to pace figures, the quality of the competition, and the way the horse ran, how many obstacles did he overcome, how hard was he asked, etc. RP “The only race he lost last year was the BC Sprint. That was one race. That is hardly proof of anything. A more obvious reason for his poor performance was because he had one too many trips across the country and one too many hard races. “ Is it really more likely that it was due to the travel? Take a look at the following. I alluded to his performances being predictable with the Bris pace and speed figures. Below I am using Bris terms E1-pace figure to the quarter, E2-pace figure to the half, LP-pace figure from the half to the end, SPD-final speed figure. Here is the average pace profile for LITF. This is an average of all his races. E1 E2 LP SPD 95 107 92 102 Now here are the figures he ran in his last four races prior to the Smile Aristides - finished first E1 E2 LP SPD 88 103 102 107 Golden Gate sprint - finished second in four horse field. Only one real competitor. E1 E2 LP SPD 101 110 81 96 BC - Sprint - finished seventh E1 E2 LP SPD 100 115 82 100 Bay Meadows Speed – finished first in a five horse field E1 E2 LP SPD 94 103 105 109 You say he didn’t fire in the races that he lost. I am saying that he most definitely did fire and he actually ran faster initial pace figures than he normally does to the quarter and the half. In fact they were too fast for him to sustain and his late pace suffered as well as his speed. Those races caused him to work harder early than he did when he went 43 and change against two horses at GG. I don’t know the numbers for the Smile yet but I’m sure that they were huge for E1 and E2. LITF looks to have run his worst race to date but I will also say that I think it was the most challenging field he’s faced in terms of front end speed. Maybe it’s you who needs to learn a bit more on evaluating horses when they race against weak fields. I was the one who wasn’t fooled by his wins over weak fields. Frankly this is so obvious I’m surprised that it is taking people so long to catch on. Last edited by ArlJim78 : 07-17-2006 at 10:14 PM.
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#16
07-17-2006, 09:43 PM
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Retirement a possibility for Lost in the Fog
By CHUCK DYBDAL In the wake of Lost in the Fog's ninth-place finish Saturday in the Grade 2 Smile Sprint at Calder, trainer Greg Gilchrist said that he and owner Harry Aleo are giving thought to retiring the colt. Lost in the Fog, the champion sprinter of 2005, will get a rest, Gilchrist said, and a decision on his future will be made when he returns to training. "We're not leaning one way or the other," he said. "We'll give him time to get his feet underneath him and see how he is. We want to determine if he can be competitive at the level he should be. If it were going to take two or three months to bring him back, and there was only one race left for him this year, we'd probably retire him." Gilchrist said Lost in the Fog didn't seem to try in the Smile, in which he carried high weight of 125 pounds and was the even-money favorite. Aleo and Gilchrist have said that Lost in the Fog, a 4-year-old by Lost Soldier, would race as both a 4-year-old and 5-year-old, and this is the first time they have questioned that plan. "You can't put a positive spin on it," Gilchrist said. "It's the first time I've seen him not try. He carried a lot of weight, but that had nothing to do with running that poorly. He's got a lot of problems, things like quarter cracks and bumps and bruises. It's nothing life-threatening or career-ending, but they catch up with him." Earlier at Calder on Saturday, the Gilchrist-trained Victorina won the Grade 3 Azalea Breeders' Cup Stakes. Gilchrist said he expected a good race out of Victorina but that he wasn't sure how Lost in the Fog would run. "There were no surprises for me Saturday," trainer Greg Gilchrist said. "I wasn't surprised she ran well, and it didn't surprise me the other horse didn't." Lost in the Fog and Victorina, both owned by Aleo, were scheduled to arrive at Golden Gate Fields late Tuesday afternoon.
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#17
07-17-2006, 10:53 PM
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"Maybe it’s you who needs to learn a bit more on evaluating horses when they race against weak fields. I was the one who wasn’t fooled by his wins over weak fields. Frankly this is so obvious I’m surprised that it is taking people so long to catch on."[/quote]
As I said before, I have no problem judging a horse's ability even off a maiden win. Practically every horse I have bought or have tried to buy privately was off a race where they pretty much beat nobody. I usually don't buy horses after they have won a stakes race. I usually buy horses off a maiden win and sometimes an allowance win. It's the way the horse moves that is the most important thing. I don't care who is behind them. There doesn't have to be anyone behind them. As I told you before, I can judge a horse's ability from watching them work alone. At the 2 year old sales, the horses don't work in company. They usually work either an 1/8th of a mile or a 1/4 of a mile alone. If I didn't have a great eye, people wouldn't fly me all over the country on private jets to pick out horses for them. My eye is as good as anyone's in the business. I don't think anyone's batting average is higher than mine when it comes to picking out huge winners to buy. I tried to buy both Roses in May and English Channel before either of them had ever won a stakes race. We tried to buy Wild Fit off of her maiden win. We were offering huge amounts of money for these horses too. We offered $800,000 for Wild Fit off her maiden win. We offered $700,000 for English Channel off an allowance win and $1 million for Roses in May off an allowance win. These horses beat nobody in the races I tried to buy them off, yet we had no problem offering huge money for these horses because I was extremely confident in the ability off all three of these horses. I didn't look at any pace figures either. I am one of the only people in the business who gets a free 10% ownership in every horse I select. It must be beacuse I'm a nice guy. Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 07-17-2006 at 10:56 PM.
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#18
07-19-2006, 10:06 PM
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[quote=dalakhani]Why is there so much blind faith in an animal that has proven to be vastly overrated on multiple occasions?
How can you possibly say that LITF was overrated? Sincerely, The 2005 USC Football Team Not to put a damper on this fun thread, but there is so much emotion being used on the words "overrated" in this thread? Just to state the obvious, but "Ratings" are obviously opinions (including those people that voted for the eclipse). People are going to have opinions on both sides of this fence (neither right and neither wrong). I also saw some references in this thread to translating the odds (or lack thereof on Saturday) and translating those odds to how the horse is "rated". For the record LITF has a >+10% ROI (if I did my math correct) which by definition he is underrated (yes I know the argument will be that he would be overrated based on the small sample size of G1/G2 races against older horses). BTW by using this definition there should be a 500 post thread on this board describing how overrated Dubai Escapade is.
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#19
07-19-2006, 10:14 PM
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[quote=bogeydaman]
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Would you bet LITF will win a g1 before he is done?
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#20
07-19-2006, 10:30 PM
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[quote=dalakhani]
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I do know that she didn't fire though. She didn't even want to switch leads on Saturday which is unusual for her. She stayed on her left lead through much of the stretch. She did eventually switch to her right lead, but she did it much later than normal. There was clearly something bothering her.
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