Shakespeare

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If just the Americans show up then I'd agree he could win either race. Going to be a whole different story though with the Euros.

Which Euros? I certainly hope there are some new and improved models over the last two years.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Which Euros? I certainly hope there are some new and improved models over the last two years.

You may be right in the Mile, I have no clue who they have. In the Turf though I think Shakespeare could beat our best but doubt he can beat the best Europe will bring over.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You may be right in the Mile, I have no clue who they have. In the Turf though I think Shakespeare could beat our best but doubt he can beat the best Europe will bring over.

We all have a tendency to say " he can't beat the Euros " but sometimes the Euros aren't that special and often our milers are better than our distance horses ( there's a shock ). I'm not particularly up on the Euro milers, though Maduro was their best and he's now injured ( and wasn't pointing to the Mile anyway ), and if George Washington ends up being one of their better entrants I would certainly take my chances with Shakespeare.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We all have a tendency to say " he can't beat the Euros " but sometimes the Euros aren't that special and often our milers are better than our distance horses ( there's a shock ). I'm not particularly up on the Euro milers, though Maduro was their best and he's now injured ( and wasn't pointing to the Mile anyway ), and if George Washington ends up being one of their better entrants I would certainly take my chances with Shakespeare.

I don't even have to know who is coming in the Turf to feel pretty confident that we won't crack the top three. Who the heck is going to get there? English Channel? The Tin Man? Grand Courtier? I think Shakespeare could beat all of them but don't feel confident he'd be able to stretch out four furlongs and beat the Euros. He certainly would be a deserving favorite in the Mile.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't even have to know who is coming in the Turf to feel pretty confident that we won't crack the top three. Who the heck is going to get there? English Channel? The Tin Man? Grand Courtier? I think Shakespeare could beat all of them but don't feel confident he'd be able to stretch out four furlongs and beat the Euros. He certainly would be a deserving favorite in the Mile.

It's hard to believe that whichever Euro routers show up that the mediocrities we have going long will beat them. Look at Doctor Dino. He was hardly upper echelon over there. Somehow I would guess Dylan Thomas and Notnowcato could handle him. I have no idea whether Soldier of Fortune, Zambazi Sun, Lawman or the mighty Authorized are coming.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We all have a tendency to say " he can't beat the Euros " but sometimes the Euros aren't that special and often our milers are better than our distance horses ( there's a shock ). I'm not particularly up on the Euro milers, though Maduro was their best and he's now injured ( and wasn't pointing to the Mile anyway ), and if George Washington ends up being one of their better entrants I would certainly take my chances with Shakespeare.

Agree with Andy completely with his sentiments regarding the Mile. All you have to do is look at last years race. The winner, Miesques Approval, was nothing special. Never won another Grade(Group) I in his career. He's no where near the same quality horse as Shakespeare.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by rgustafson

Agree with Andy completely with his sentiments regarding the Mile. All you have to do is look at last years race. The winner, Miesques Approval, was nothing special. Never won another Grade(Group) I in his career. He's no where near the same quality horse as Shakespeare.

There is more than one way to look at this.

How long is the list of Group1/Grade 1 winning horses Shakes beat?

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He beat 5 grade 1 winning horses in the race yesterday.

That is what makes him a very nice horse.

[SentToStud]

Sometimes in the BC Mile, it's tough to see which Euros are going to be tough. LAst Tycoon, Barethea, Dome Driver were all pretty big number winners. Antonio Pius was a close 2nd to Singletary. I remember that Super paying $110k. I didn't have it. Last year it was kind of silly that they ran George Washington in the Classic instead of the Mile. Who knows how he would have done. GW and Lingarri have their preps coming up. A 3yo filly - Darjina (sp?) just beat older males in France. Miesque, Ridgewood Pearl and Six Perfections all won the BCM as 3 yo fillies, I believe. To me, the BCM is a crapshoot. Maybe that's because I cannot recall ever getting the race right.

[mp3]

sheakespeare did not walk bt kip deville. He was under a drive from the 1/8 pole to the wire. He had a perfect trip along the rail and was very fortunate to have gotten through. He also was getting 7lbs from kip who had a trip that does not exactly fit his running style. at scale weights and kip getting an outside stalking trip there will be nothing between these two. The shorter stretch at monmouth will also benefit Kip. I am all over kip in the futures at this point.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by mp3

sheakespeare did not walk bt kip deville. He was under a drive from the 1/8 pole to the wire. He had a perfect trip along the rail and was very fortunate to have gotten through. He also was getting 7lbs from kip who had a trip that does not exactly fit his running style. at scale weights and kip getting an outside stalking trip there will be nothing between these two. The shorter stretch at monmouth will also benefit Kip. I am all over kip in the futures at this point.

good luck, you'll need it if you're trying to get Kip Deville to win the BC mile.
If the shorter stretch at Monmouth benefits him so much, why did he recently place third on that track in a grade 3 race?

[SentToStud]

I agree w/ mp3. Also, you can't lose the fact that Remarkable News was the 2nd favorite in the race yesterday. A nice horse, sure but he's certainly not scaring anyone.

That said, Shakes is very nice.

[mp3]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good luck, you'll need it if you're trying to get Kip Deville to win the BC mile.
If the shorter stretch at Monmouth benefits him so much, why did he recently place third on that track in a grade 3 race?

terribloe analogy. Monmouth race at 1 1/16 and they tried to rate him well off the pace

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good luck, you'll need it if you're trying to get Kip Deville to win the BC mile.
If the shorter stretch at Monmouth benefits him so much, why did he recently place third on that track in a grade 3 race?

that was at 1 1/16th mile. kip deville is a much superior horse at a mile than 1 1/16th. he's proven that beyond question 1 mile is his best distance.

i doubt shakespeare has fired his best shot. his first win was a 1 turn mile, which made me question him, and the woodbine race really didn't set up pace wise for him. the race set up much better for kip deville than shakespeare. kip sat comfy on a fair to moderate pace. shakespeare did get the hedge, but he was a ton more horse than the 3 he passed. i doubt any of those 3 could turn the tables on him. just look at the difference between shakespeare and art master in the past two races. shakespeare stepped up markedly from 1st to 2nd out, and you have to think there is more horse there. he looks very good right now. very tough.

i liked kip in the woodbine. i think dehoss and btw could vouch for that, and i was excited how he ran. he got beat by a better horse, a horse that looks special.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

that was at 1 1/16th mile. kip deville is a much superior horse at a mile than 1 1/16th. he's proven that beyond question 1 mile is his best distance.

i doubt shakespeare has fired his best shot. his first win was a 1 turn mile, which made me question him, and the woodbine race really didn't set up pace wise for him. the race set up much better for kip deville than shakespeare. kip sat comfy on a fair to moderate pace. shakespeare did get the hedge, but he was a ton more horse than the 3 he passed. i doubt any of those 3 could turn the tables on him. just look at the difference between shakespeare and art master in the past two races. shakespeare stepped up markedly from 1st to 2nd out, and you have to think there is more horse there. he looks very good right now. very tough.

i liked kip in the woodbine. i think dehoss and btw could vouch for that, and i was excited how he ran. he got beat by a better horse, a horse that looks special.

oh I also liked Kip in that race, it looked like he was ready to fire a good one. I liked Kip, Shakespeare and Remarkable News. I was leary of trusting Shakespeare more being second start off of that very long layoff. But yes I agree, he was much the best as it wasn't any type of a gift set-up for him.

on the 1 1/16 race at Monmouth, 200 yards more than a mile, less than six seconds. pretty short difference in distance to distinguish and claim a horse much better at one than the other. I agree that distance is not his friend but i don't know that he is that limited that he cant win a race at 1 1/16 miles.

[ultracapper]

you wouldn't think 220 yards means that much, but just look at his record. it screams, in his instance anyway, that 220 yards means everything.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

you wouldn't think 220 yards means that much, but just look at his record. it screams, in his instance anyway, that 220 yards means everything.

i see only one 1 1/16 mile race in his pp's, and it was one of his best lifetime figures, as good a figure as all but one of his mile races.

now his 9 and 10 furlongs attempts were disasters, so yeah i do agree that he has limitations.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You could have driven a truck through the hole that Shakespeare got through and he made up significant ground in a race he probably shouldn't have.

I don't care how open the rail was. At the quarter pole he was 8 lengths behind on the outside and hopelessly beaten. He ran the last quarter in 22:2.

[RolloTomasi]

When you get down to it, its hard to go against the thinking that Shakespeare is flat out better than Kip Deville. But certainly its far from crazy to give Kip Deville a big shot in the BC Mile.

Firstly, it will be his third start off a layoff. After peaking in early spring, his connections tried to kill him at Hollywood, yet mercifully gave him a brief freshening before his return at Monmouth. Quite comfortably, you can tolerate his loss there as a "tuneup".

In the Woodbine Mile, while Shakespeare did surge past him, Kip Deville was pulling clear from the rest of the field and visually seemed to dig in when the winner came up the inside. For all the exuberance over Shakespeare's finish, to me, he merely wore down those horses in the final 1/8th. He seemed to be fastest before the 1/8th pole when he exploded away from Becrux who was rallying mildly at the time.

You can't take away how much ground Shakespeare made up from the top of the lane home, but obviously the Monmouth turf course will have a much shorter stretch. In that regard, Kip Deville has a distinct edge over Shakespeare with his good tactical speed. He will almost certainly get the jump on that rival heading for home.

Finally, if you like to play off of trends, in the most recent BC's, the 2nd tier horses have gotten it done in the Mile. Particularly those with the same sort of tactical speed as Kip Deville, such as Singletary and Artie Schiller.

Shakespeare may finish best in this year's Mile (though he's no cinch given his injury record), but Kip Deville might reach the wire first.