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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Good description of wsex.com. Before the 2007 Ky Derby, their future odds were embarrassingly bad. But with the 2007 Derby futures, wsex was actually competitive with odds from Pinnacle, TheGreek, etc.
I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.
--Dunbar
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I'm thinking you are just a bit high on the odds of him not making the race. My guess is Pletcher is going to do his normal "train him up to the race" which would really make it difficult to believe he won' be there. While i know there is always that chance that something could go wrong in training, it seems like a most unlikely scenerio. With that in mind, if he does train up to the race, coming off of his last 2 wins, IMO he'd be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-5 no matter who he is running against. Even though the 3YO's are talented, see Bernardini on how those 3YO's perform in the Classic. Tiznow is the only 3YO to win the Classic since 2000. Now don't misunderstand, I won't be betting LR in the future book or on race day. But for those Pletcher lovers and those who love LR, 7-2 right now is awfully enticing. He did look pretty damn good last Saturday.
09-07-2007, 11:25 AM
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