Arlington-Washington Futurity

[miraja2]

Gold Coyote will almost certainly be the favorite, but I would be very hesitant about playing him in this spot. Betting a favorite that is stretching out to 8f for the first time AND is trying poly for the first time doesn't seem like a smart play to me.
If Texas Wildcatter and/or TJ's Posse really go off at around 6/1, I think either of them could be a good play.

[brianwspencer]

Sebastian County has been sloooooow in his first two, but he's bred well and his older brother won this racea few years ago.

He looked good, even if he was slow, overcoming some light trouble last time to get his second win.

Something tells me there's more to him than we know so far. That 10/1 looks mighty nice on a runner I think is waiting to show more.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Gold Coyote will almost certainly be the favorite, but I would be very hesitant about playing him in this spot. Betting a favorite that is stretching out to 8f for the first time AND is trying poly for the first time doesn't seem like a smart play to me.
If Texas Wildcatter and/or TJ's Posse really go off at around 6/1, I think either of them could be a good play.

I personally will take TJ's Posse anywhere above 4-1.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

I personally will take TJ's Posse anywhere above 4-1.

You won't find a 2yo trained by Asmussen or ridden by Emigh go off as the 4th or 5th choice in a race very often. You especially don't see it very often when that colt is 2 for 2 lifetime with a stakes win already under his belt. When you do find it, it certainly might be a smart play.
As for brian's pick, I don't particularly like Sebastian County's chances here, but I suppose it is always a bit dangerous to throw out horses that have proven they can win on poly in favor of horses that have not. The colt is 2 for 2 at Arlington.....but I think he is in a bit over his head in this one.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

As for brian's pick, I don't particularly like Sebastian County's chances here, but I suppose it is always a bit dangerous to throw out horses that have proven they can win on poly in favor of horses that have not. The colt is 2 for 2 at Arlington.....but I think he is in a bit over his head in this one.

Don't get me wrong -- he's certainly biting off a big piece here considering how slowly he ran in his last two.

I'm just going solely on the 2 for 2 AP poly angle, the fact that he still DID manage to win both races (with some trouble in the last), and that I simply think he's going to turn out to be a much faster horse than we've seen so far. Whether tomorrow is the day he becomes that faster horse -- well that's why it's gambling

But at 10-1, I definitely like his chances in comparison to how the race looks like it's going to be bet.

[ArlJim78]

I'm leaning slightly towards Blackberry Road followed by TJ's Posse.
I liked the looks of the debuts of Texas Wildcatter and Wicked Style but winning right back against horses with more experience is a lot to ask.
I don't like Gold Coyote for the reasons miraja gave.