Declans Moon back today

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Considering that Ellis is 33% off the layoff, I highly doubt the horse will need a race.

DM is a Champion, but that was a year and a half ago, other than Bellamy Road and Flower Alley that wasn't a great group and he didn't face those two, there's enough concern to say he's an automatic here...

[Gander]

33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?

Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.

[Danzig]

ah yes, another good day for racing, with an intriguing race on each coast.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Gander

33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?

Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.

There are two horses that are better than the horse coming off the layoff? What are you smoking? You could buy either one of those horses for $100,000. You couldn't buy DM for $1 million. DM is a Breeeder's Cup caliber horse. Ron says he is the best horse he has ever trained by far. Ron has trained a ton of Grade I horses and Ron is not one to talk up his horses.
Doug O'Neil trains the two horses that you think are better than DM. I can guarantee you that even Doug would tell you that neither of his two horses are in the league of DM. I can practically guarantee you that Doug would have never entered either of his horses in this race if he knew that DM was running. I'm sure he'd scratch them if he could but it's not easy to get a horse scratched in a 5 horse field. You actually need your vet to lie and say that there is something wrong with the horse. Don't get me wrong, guys do it but it's somewhat of a hassle. There is no way that he will be able to get both horses scratched.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There are two horses that are better than the horse coming off the layoff? What are you smoking? You could buy either one of those horses for $100,000. You couldn't buy DM for $1 million. DM is a Breeeder's Cup caliber horse. Ron says he is the best horse he has ever trained by far. Ron has trained a ton of Grade I horses and Ron is not one to talk up his horses.
Doug O'Neil trains the two horses that you think are better than DM. I can guarantee you that even Doug would tell you that neither of his two horses are in the league of DM. I can practically guarantee you that Doug would have never entered either of his horses in this race if he knew that DM was running. I'm sure he'd scratch them if he could but it's not easy to get a horse scratched in a 5 horse field. You actually need your vet to lie and say that there is something wrong with the horse. Don't get me wrong, guys do it but it's somewhat of a hassle. There is no way that he will be able to get both horses scratched.

It's no surprise that O'Neil scratched Areyoutalkintome. I'm sure he would scratch the other horse too if he could. That was why Ron kept it a secret that DM was running. He knew the race would never go if the other trainers knew he was running.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Gander

33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?

Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.

You are right that the 33% stat is misleading. If all of Ellis's horses were as good as DM, the stat would be more like 60%. Many of his horses coming off layoffs are not great horses.