Lava Man

[TitanSooner]

obnoxious.. and Kimmeastar hasn't even made a post yet

[letswastemoney]

Bring out The Green Monkey to CA. They'll get their easy G1 and it's off the stud! lol

[TitanSooner]

bunch of numb nuts

[Riot]

I didn't see any public handicapper that rated Lava Man higher than third place, at best.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Riot

I didn't see any public handicapper that rated Lava Man higher than third place, at best.

There is this little local paper, The Daily Racing Form, and three of their four Del Mar handicappers had him picked second. He was the consensus selection to win.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

There is this little local paper, The Daily Racing Form, and three of their four Del Mar handicappers had him picked second. He was the consensus selection to win.

How can you be the consensus selection to win if nobody places you first ?

I didn't look at the DRF consensus (never worked for me <g>). I saw that Brad Free, the main DelMar DRF guy, placed him third behind Hello Sunday and Big Booster; Ellis Star from Equibase put him third behind AP Xcellent, Tiago. I didn't see the rags, TG had LM very vunerable, and the exacta results as very, very likely based on their analysis.

Interesting comments on the Siro's handicapping show this morning, from Cary Fotias. He said he noticed that at Keeneland, the times over the Polytrack are good (meaning reasonable for the class and ability of the horses), but that Del Mar Polytrack is indeed playing extremely slow time-wise. They ran out of time, so couldn't talk about it further, wish they could have.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Riot

How can you be the consensus selection to win if nobody places you first ?

I didn't look at the DRF consensus (never worked for me <g>). I saw that Brad Free, the main DelMar DRF guy, placed him third behind Hello Sunday and Big Booster; Ellis Star from Equibase put him third behind AP Xcellent, Tiago. I didn't see the rags, TG had LM very vunerable, and the exacta results as very, very likely based on their analysis.

Interesting comments on the Siro's handicapping show this morning, from Cary Fotias. He said he noticed that at Keeneland, the times over the Polytrack are good (meaning reasonable for the class and ability of the horses), but that Del Mar Polytrack is indeed playing extremely slow time-wise. They ran out of time, so couldn't talk about it further, wish they could have.

It's based on a point system. A horse that is selected first gets five points, a horse that is picked second gets two and it's one point for third. The selections went:

Hello Sunday-5, Big Booster-2, Lava Man-1
Porfido-5, Lava Man-2, Tiago-1
Albertus Maximus-5, Lava Man-2, Awesome Gem-1
Sun Boat-5, Lava Man-2, Tiago-1

Total points
Lava Man-7
Hello Sunday-5
Porfido-5
Albertus Maximus-5
Sun Boat-5
Tiago-2
Big Booster-2
Awesome Gem-1

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

bunch of numb nuts

if you call two of them 'a bunch', you pretty much described mine.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

obnoxious.. and Kimmeastar hasn't even made a post yet

I've read them,and.............. I will stay quiet! I'll let you guys do the talking.

Lava Man should be pointed tactically toward Grade 1 and Grade 2 turf races in California - avoiding After Market. These artificial surfaces don't serve him well. Think of his last 4 starts on Turf in Southern Cal:

1) Wins Khaled in course record time
2) Wins the Whittingham going away
3) Wins the Sunshine Millions Turf easily
4) Finishes second to After Market in a 1:59 going 1 1/4 while clearly ahead of the third place horse.

Turf is where his future lies.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by FairPlay

Lava Man should be pointed tactically toward Grade 1 and Grade 2 turf races in California - avoiding After Market. These artificial surfaces don't serve him well. Think of his last 4 starts on Turf in Southern Cal:

1) Wins Khaled in course record time
2) Wins the Whittingham going away
3) Wins the Sunshine Millions Turf easily
4) Finishes second to After Market in a 1:59 going 1 1/4 while clearly ahead of the third place horse.

Turf is where his future lies.

According to his trainer at the start of the year, turf was going to be his primary surface this year. I was looking forward to it as I have felt that he runs better on the grass. I guess they just looked at the slim pickings in the California older male division on dirt and couldn't resist. It's kind of hard to blame them though when they've been able to win the another SA Hcp and another Hollywood Gold Cup in the process. I think that because of that, they had to take a shot in the Pacific Classic. But it's got to be turf from here on out. I think he could even handle up to 12f on the grass.

[Riot]

Turf is where his future lies.

I think the Del Mar poly to turf is going to be an extremely strong angle on this horse next time he runs in CA.