Calder Pick 5 for Saturday

[2MinsToPost]

Race 7 is brutal for me, brutal. I have watched some replays, looked at the PP's in DRF till I am blue. I just might go deep in this leg.

[2MinsToPost]

Done, not even gonna spend another second trying to put together a Pick 5 but rather concentrate on 2 or 3 Pick 3's, which can be played agressive with my budget

[31lengths]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Race 7 is brutal for me, brutal. I have watched some replays, looked at the PP's in DRF till I am blue. I just might go deep in this leg.

yeah...the 7th is tough.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Race 7 - Victorina, G City Gal, Rich Fantasy
R8 - Whatasoldier, Western Kind, Justice for Auston, Gin Rummy Champ
Race 9- Too Much Bling
Race 10 - Dubai Escapade
Race 11- Weigelia, Nightmare Affair, Friendly Island, Gaff, Lost in the Fog

3x4x1x1x5 = $60

I tried and tried to find a reason not to single Dubai Escapade and there is none that I can see. Same for Too Much Bling who got a ride last time out accurately described by a DT member as a "botched abortion." A lot of pace in race 7 makes me favor some of the closers, who are also the more talented entries IMO. Hate capping turf sprints like Race 8, I admittedly do very poorly in them, so I'll go a bit deeper there. Going deepest in the Smile, sentimentally hoping for LITF but using a good number of horses that have a nice shot at hitting at a longer price. Hope a good amount of entries single fog!

Please note, free past performances included if you didnt plan on playing Calder (so didnt buy DRF) and dont want to spend the $$$ now (like me!). Could only find nomination PPs for Race 8, which arent very good...

[DerbyCat]

Being from California, I follow the horses and jockeys from here closely and that certainly baises me (and not necessarily for the better)... but I am smart enough to realize that Russell Baze is minor league compared to the jocks he's racing against (and my home track is Bay Meadows where he is a god)... with that said, Russell won't win two races on Saturday but he can win and usually does it when least expected, so I have to chose between Victorina and LITF (or neither). I don't feel good about LITF (although I LOVE this horse) because he doesn't do well in large fields - I don't see him getting the lead and if he has to work too hard in the stretch I don't think Russell will be able to get him across first... I think I like the 20-1 longshot, Weigelia's chances better than Fog (that hurts me to say) I think Victorina has a shot in the 7th and I'll use her but if she wins, I don't believe LITF will. Just my thoughts...

My picks:

R7 - pp 1,7,8
R8 - pp 3,4
R9 - pp 5,6
R10 - pp 1,7
R11 - pp 5,7,10

Don't know exactly how I'm going to play these yet, I know it will be on a couple different tickets...

Good luck on Saturday everyone.

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

Being from California, I follow the horses and jockeys from here closely and that certainly baises me (and not necessarily for the better)... but I am smart enough to realize that Russell Baze is minor league compared to the jocks he's racing against (and my home track is Bay Meadows where he is a god)... with that said, Russell won't win two races on Saturday but he can win and usually does it when least expected, so I have to chose between Victorina and LITF (or neither). I don't feel good about LITF (although I LOVE this horse) because he doesn't do well in large fields - I don't see him getting the lead and if he has to work too hard in the stretch I don't think Russell will be able to get him across first... I think I like the 20-1 longshot, Weigelia's chances better than Fog (that hurts me to say) I think Victorina has a shot in the 7th and I'll use her but if she wins, I don't believe LITF will. Just my thoughts...

My picks:

R7 - pp 1,7,8
R8 - pp 3,4
R9 - pp 5,6
R10 - pp 1,7
R11 - pp 5,7,10

Don't know exactly how I'm going to play these yet, I know it will be on a couple different tickets...

Good luck on Saturday everyone.

The more I look at Weigelia, the more I like this horse. I think we will get every bit of 20-1 on this horse if not more. Bling and Dubai stand head and shoulders above their fields. If someone other than those 2 win then so be it. But I have got to make a stand by singling those two. I am sticking to my original ticket and playing it 6x for a total of $600.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

The more I look at Weigelia, the more I like this horse. I think we will get every bit of 20-1 on this horse if not more. Bling and Dubai stand head and shoulders above their fields. If someone other than those 2 win then so be it. But I have got to make a stand by singling those two. I am sticking to my original ticket and playing it 6x for a total of $600.

I personally think you are safe singling those two. There is just nobody in either of those fields that looks like they could really beat them. Singles do lose all the time - but I think you should feel comfortable singling them. If I play I am singling both as well. I agree about Weigelia also. Not a huge fan of the class jump, but I do like the turf to dirt angle and Lezcano aboard. Running up front against Lost in the Fog may not be anyones cup of tea though. If the price is right - around 20/1 - then I may have to jump in. If not, oh well. My personal choice in here is Gaff, though. Good luck with your ticket(s) - hope you hit big!

[zippyneedsawin]

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

[DerbyCat]

Zippy - Trust in the Derby Trail posters... I truly believe if you take a little from everyone here, they will lead you to the winning ticket - I've been following the advice of others here (and my own capping and knowledge) and my account is currently up over 200% in the past month! (yes, you folks here give great advice... just listen to each other!)

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

Pick 3 is not a bad way to go. You are basically playing a win bet if you single two legs of the pick 3. You might be in a case where a horse pays more for the win than the pick 3 pays.