Any Given Saturday

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Thanks for understanding wha I am saying. It is a challenge.

just to be clear. I was not being complmentary. I think it is a sham and agree that it is bad for racing.

Also, this is why I wonder why anyone would take a horse to a freshman sire that hasn't proven anything in the shed. How many drop from their initial offering and how many jump up like Storm Cat. Why take your horse to AGS when Distorted Humor (I think) is the one that produced AGS. Now that I have said this I am sure AGS will go on to be the leading sire of 2010.

It's a risk, but it could turn out to be very profitable. If you plan to sell the resulting colt/filly as a foal or yearling it's almost certain that you will get more if it is by a freshman. In this game it's all about taking risks with stallions, freshman sires will always be in demand.

Over in Europe, everyone is banking on Hurricane Run to prove himself. I think his yearlings will sell very very well. It seems like every mare owner wants to go to him.

[NoChanceToDance]

Has anyone heard the actual price paid for AGS?

Rumour is $50million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that is true, it is becoming a joke.

He was worth a lot of money and you can be sure that winstar wouldn't have let him go for any less than his value and much more on top, so $50milllion might not be too far off.

You guys better hope that he or one of the others sires the Derby winner in 2011 or there will be trouble!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Has anyone heard the actual price paid for AGS?

Rumour is $50million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that is true, it is becoming a joke.

He was worth a lot of money and you can be sure that winstar wouldn't have let him go for any less than his value and much more on top, so $50milllion might not be too far off.

You guys better hope that he or one of the others sires the Derby winner in 2011 or there will be trouble!!

no way it's that high. smarty jones didn't even go for that much. then look at hard spun--word was about 18 million, and about twice that for street sense.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no way it's that high. smarty jones didn't even go for that much. then look at hard spun--word was about 18 million, and about twice that for street sense.

I wouldn't be so sure. Win Star were so excited to be standing him as a sire next year, they would not have accepted a bid unless it was sky high. I'd go as far as saying they wouldn't have accepted anything lower than twice his true value.

Don't forget, if Hard Spun wins a Gr1 before he retires, the price goes up another $15million, doesn't it?

I really wouldn't be surprised if it were close to $50million.

Win Star wouldn't get rid of a really good stallion prospect unless the offer couldn't be turned down

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I wouldn't be so sure. Win Star were so excited to be standing him as a sire next year, they would not have accepted a bid unless it was sky high. I'd go as far as saying they wouldn't have accepted anything lower than twice his true value.

Don't forget, if Hard Spun wins a Gr1 before he retires, the price goes up another $15million, doesn't it?

I really wouldn't be surprised if it were close to $50million.

Win Star wouldn't get rid of a really good stallion prospect unless the offer couldn't be turned down

rumor was that street sense was in the mid-30's. based on that, i just don't think AGS would go for that much--no way to justify him being 14 or so mill higher than the derby/bcj winner.
winstar may have been excited--but my gosh, 50 million?! no way. the stud fee that would require in order to even break even would be amazing--even with shuttling to australia where they can't command the same stud fee as here. most farms want to break even on purchase price within 3/4 years. think about the stud fee, mares to cover, need to shuttle to make that 50 mill.
any given saturday is no fupeg.

and win star would take the money, rather than work at making a stallion--which is risky-- if it's all right there in one lump sum.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Has anyone heard the actual price paid for AGS?

Rumour is $50million!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that is true, it is becoming a joke.

He was worth a lot of money and you can be sure that winstar wouldn't have let him go for any less than his value and much more on top, so $50milllion might not be too far off.

You guys better hope that he or one of the others sires the Derby winner in 2011 or there will be trouble!!

if one of those sires sires a derby winner in 2011, their stud fee would skyrocket to about 50 million.

then again, their first 3yos wont be running in the derby until 2012, the year the world is supposed to end.

there will be a triple crown winner in 2011 at least, just not by one of those 2yos from those sires you mentioned.

[Danzig]

all i know is, if darley is indeed shelling out this kind of money to buy up all the breeding stock in order to 'knock off' coolmore they are

a-idiots
b-letting emotion get the best of them
and
c-too rich for their own good.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

all i know is, if darley is indeed shelling out this kind of money to buy up all the breeding stock in order to 'knock off' coolmore they are

a-idiots
b-letting emotion get the best of them
and
c-too rich for their own good.

Nope, actually they are only c. Them buying these stallions is the equivalent of us buying a DVD on sale at Target for $9.99. I sh!t you not. Do the math, it is scary how insignificant $50 million is to them.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Nope, actually they are only c. Them buying these stallions is the equivalent of us buying a DVD on sale at Target for $9.99. I sh!t you not. Do the math, it is scary how insignificant $50 million is to them.

Sorry to go off topic, but is this a world wide phrase now? Everyone around here is saying that now. It has sort of sprung up from no where.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Sorry to go off topic, but is this a world wide phrase now? Everyone around here is saying that now. It has sort of sprung up from no where.

yeah, same here.

i just started hearing that phrase about 35 years ago too.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Danzig

all i know is, if darley is indeed shelling out this kind of money to buy up all the breeding stock in order to 'knock off' coolmore they are

a-idiots
b-letting emotion get the best of them
and
c-too rich for their own good.

I wouldn't go as far as saying they are idiots, but B and C definitley come into it. They have become so hell bent on beating Coolmore they have let the business slip and forgot about their own breeding operation.

I'm not sure if this is to do with the feud with Coolmore, i simply think that they are desperate to get the leading freshman in 2010 and have the sire of the Derby winner in 2011 (it will be a bonus if they own the winner, also). When they bought Street Sense and Hard Spun (a deal which i think was done almost as soon as they crossed the line), they thought that would be all they needed. Then Curlin came and beat Street Sense and i bet they were thinking "sh!t", my guess is that they tried to get him, too......... then to dent them even further, AGS comes along and destroys Curlin, now their thoughts are "double sh!t".......... the only thing they can do (in their eyes) is buy AGS because he is competition to HS ans SS in the breeding shed.

The worrying thing is that these people don't care about making up the cost in stallion fees and if they wanted to they could just go on a mare spending spree and only breed their own mares by these stallions for the first couple of years. If that was to happen, it could be a major crisis.

I maitain the fact that buying the competition both in racing and breeding is slowly killing the sport, and almost 100% of that is being carried out by this organisation.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

It's a risk, but it could turn out to be very profitable. If you plan to sell the resulting colt/filly as a foal or yearling it's almost certain that you will get more if it is by a freshman. In this game it's all about taking risks with stallions, freshman sires will always be in demand.

Over in Europe, everyone is banking on Hurricane Run to prove himself. I think his yearlings will sell very very well. It seems like every mare owner wants to go to him.

very true. So we get expensive freshamn sires and expensive yearlings and when they finally get to the track they are Green Monkeying all over the place

[Bobby Fischer]

Do you guys feel this is a superior animal? I am talking horseflesh here not his recent running form.

Personally I think he is a nice horse for sure, but not a top of the breed animal. I think he has shown dramatic improvement as far as running goes in the last 3 months. That to me along with several others in his barn who showed dramatic improvent and or surprisingly brilliant finishes in the last 3 months is a credit to the trainer. It has been at the point where you see a Pletcher "2nd stringer" like Sam P. and you wonder if Sam P. will suddenly show this brilliant finish although nothing on his form suggests it. Mike Mitchell East. This is a horse that looked like he could never make it to 10 furlongs, now he suddenly is the best finishing 3yo.

I understand Distorted Humor is a popular sire and for that reason Any Given Saturday will be popular to some right away. I do not think AGS will be terrible as a sire, he may even produce a few precocious runners or show a little versatility, but I don't see him as a super-sire in waiting.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Do you guys feel this is a superior animal? I am talking horseflesh here not his recent running form.

Personally I think he is a nice horse for sure, but not a top of the breed animal. I think he has shown dramatic improvement as far as running goes in the last 3 months. That to me along with several others in his barn who showed dramatic improvent and or surprisingly brilliant finishes in the last 3 months is a credit to the trainer. It has been at the point where you see a Pletcher "2nd stringer" like Sam P. and you wonder if Sam P. will suddenly show this brilliant finish although nothing on his form suggests it. Mike Mitchell East. This is a horse that looked like he could never make it to 10 furlongs, now he suddenly is the best finishing 3yo.

I understand Distorted Humor is a popular sire and for that reason Any Given Saturday will be popular to some right away. I do not think AGS will be terrible as a sire, he may even produce a few precocious runners or show a little versatility, but I don't see him as a super-sire in waiting.

I'm of the complete opposite to this. He is a a grand looking son of Distorted Humor, who is improving with every run. I doubt there is any major stud out there that wouldn't want him. I think he has everything he needs to be a really top stallion.

Out of all new American stallions that Darley will have by next year, i think it will be Street Sense and Discreet Cat that disappoint in the breeding shed.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I'm of the complete opposite to this. He is a a grand looking son of Distorted Humor, who is improving with every run. I doubt there is any major stud out there that wouldn't want him. I think he has everything he needs to be a really top stallion.

Out of all new American stallions that Darley will have by next year, i think it will be Street Sense and Discreet Cat that disappoint in the breeding shed.

what do you mean by that??!

discreet cat will run for at least 3 more years dude!

[Indian Charlie]

now, i'm not really a fan of distorted humor, and i'm certainly no fan of this crop of 3yos, but one thing intrigues me about AGS as a stallion prospect.

actually, this is more to do about AGS's sire, distorted humor, but bear with me.

people are forgetting that not that long ago, DH first started out as about a 5k stallion. the mares sent to him werent really that good, and when you look at the way DH moves up his mares, well, his numbers for that are PHENOMENAL.

Both his average earnings index, and the other figure they use to compare how much a stallion moves up a mare compared to other stallions those mares have been bred to are sky high, and the comparative index blows away any other sire (as of the last time i checked). he even blows away indian charlie in that regard (who has routinely got the worst book of mares a big name stallion can possibly get).

now that we are actually seeing well bred mares being sent to DH, such as is the case with AGS, i think we are going to see a high demand for sons of DH. i wouldnt be surprised to see him become the next really big sire of sires, much like mr p or northern dancer were.

has any stallion's stud fee moved up as fast as DH by the way? from about 5-10k to 225k in well under 10 years.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Do you guys feel this is a superior animal? I am talking horseflesh here not his recent running form.

Personally I think he is a nice horse for sure, but not a top of the breed animal. I think he has shown dramatic improvement as far as running goes in the last 3 months. That to me along with several others in his barn who showed dramatic improvent and or surprisingly brilliant finishes in the last 3 months is a credit to the trainer. It has been at the point where you see a Pletcher "2nd stringer" like Sam P. and you wonder if Sam P. will suddenly show this brilliant finish although nothing on his form suggests it. Mike Mitchell East. This is a horse that looked like he could never make it to 10 furlongs, now he suddenly is the best finishing 3yo.

I understand Distorted Humor is a popular sire and for that reason Any Given Saturday will be popular to some right away. I do not think AGS will be terrible as a sire, he may even produce a few precocious runners or show a little versatility, but I don't see him as a super-sire in waiting.

It is hard to know for sure, but I think he has a good chance to be a good sire. His pedigree is extremely impressive. Not only is he by Distorted Humor, but his dam (Weekend in Indy) is by AP Indy and out of a stakes winning daughter of Spectacular Bid. Weekend in Indy's other foal was also a graded stakes winner.
Now, because most of Distorted Humor's best runners have been either geldings (Funny Cide and Commentator) or relatively new sires (Flower Alley) it is impossible to know if he will make a good "sire of sires" but he certainly might.
As for AGS's performances on the track, other than his two uninspired performances in April and May of this year, he has five wins and two places from seven starts, and given his recent success, seems to be still on the upside of his career. I think he has a better shot than most of becoming a good sire...........if he can overcome the guilt of letting down DrugS.

[Cannon Shell]

Points in no particular order
1. Darley's American breeding operation has been pretty lousy
2. It is no secret that Sheikh Mo wants to do anything in his power to hurt Coolmore (which he has)
3. There is zero chance that they paid $50 mill for AGS
4. Winstar has Distorted Humor, they dont need AGS (plus they think that they going to get one like him every year...), why not cash out before he possibly gets exposed?
5. Speculating on the success of future stallions is difficult because other than proof of being top class, racing performance does not have that much to do with it.
6. Darley's buying these three year olds up because they are convinced that this is an outstanding crop and they want to be a bigger player in the stallion ranks in USA (which they now are)
7. I don't think that they will buy Curlin unless he wins out the rest of the year , then all bets are off.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Points in no particular order
1. Darley's American breeding operation has been pretty lousy
2. It is no secret that Sheikh Mo wants to do anything in his power to hurt Coolmore (which he has)
3. There is zero chance that they paid $50 mill for AGS
4. Winstar has Distorted Humor, they dont need AGS (plus they think that they going to get one like him every year...), why not cash out before he possibly gets exposed?
5. Speculating on the success of future stallions is difficult because other than proof of being top class, racing performance does not have that much to do with it.
6. Darley's buying these three year olds up because they are convinced that this is an outstanding crop and they want to be a bigger player in the stallion ranks in USA (which they now are)
7. I don't think that they will buy Curlin unless he wins out the rest of the year , then all bets are off.

There is every chance they paid $50million for him. Money is no object for them and WinStar had already expressed their delight about standing him next year. There is no way they would have let him go for any less than twice what he is worth. With his pedigree and race record, and the fact he is still improving (so it seems) he would easily be worth $20million at least as a stallion prospect.

Sure, they have Distorted Humor, but these days studs want as many sons of their stallions as they can get. Just like Coolmore wanted as many sons of Danehill as they could get.

I'm pretty certain that they wouldn't have let him go for anything less than $40million.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

There is every chance they paid $50million for him. Money is no object for them and WinStar had already expressed their delight about standing him next year. There is no way they would have let him go for any less than twice what he is worth. With his pedigree and race record, and the fact he is still improving (so it seems) he would easily be worth $20million at least as a stallion prospect.

Sure, they have Distorted Humor, but these days studs want as many sons of their stallions as they can get. Just like Coolmore wanted as many sons of Danehill as they could get.

I'm pretty certain that they wouldn't have let him go for anything less than $40million.

Without saying too much, your number is very high.