Praise For Del Mar

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by The Bid

They vanned another one off in the first today. Never unsaddled, vanned off in distress after pulling up bad.

It's funny, but the trouble line on that race only says, "dropped back in the stretch and gave way." No mention of being vanned off in distress. Did you see the 7th race? The trouble line on Americanrevolution says, "gave way and was eased late." I know the DRF has listed horses being vanned off before. Are these horses being included in the statistics on the safety of Polytrack? Or are they only keeping track of horses that break down and are euthanized right there on the track?

For the record, I live in Southern California. I don't mind the All Weather tracks as long as they play fair. I do not like the Polytrack for the reason that it doesn't. I would have preferred that all the tracks in California had switched to the same surface. I'm betting very light at Del Mar, if at all, until they finish the experiment the first meet with the new surface is. Same thing with the upcoming meet at Golden Gate with the Tapeta surface. Who knows how that will play? Maybe the DTers in England? Good luck to them. I did okay at Hollywood Park this year (better than I usually do) and will bet Santa Anita with more confidence, due to the fact that both tracks have the Cushion Track surface.

[The Bid]

You are looking at the wrong race, race number 1.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...081307USA1.pdf

[Scav]

The people that are complaining about the surface just need to chill out as eventually it will play fair. I agree with The Bid in that it has changed the game and that this is far from dirt racing but it takes time for the track sup to understand the track. Arlington has really turned into a delight to play from a poly perspective. All types have been winning (the stats in the program will tell you closers are winning at the best clip but that is early meet heavy when they were figuring out the track).

In all honesty, I think the move to poly helps the younger generation of horse players, like myself, because we do not have the 20 years of experience on one surface built up in the brain and we are somewhat allowed to even the playing field a little.

But on the other side of the coin, I could care less what they are racing on as long as I can find a winner

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Your second paragraph confuses me. Could you explain it further.

Some people have been playing tracks like Del Mar and Hollywood Park for 20 years, they have all these built up angles and experiences with wagering. Perfect example is that Ata Dynaformer horse with EG Burnison or wahtever his name is. I had NO IDEA who tha person was, but for 20 years he has been sneaking horses in and someone caught on to it. The fact that the surface has changed, it has opened it up for younger people to create their own angles from the start, we are essentially getting new tracks thus new angles.

You don't beat this game right away, it takes experience, time and a beating. Right now, everyone is back to square one with polytrack

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Scav

Some people have been playing tracks like Del Mar and Hollywood Park for 20 years, they have all these built up angles and experiences with wagering. Perfect example is that Ata Dynaformer horse with EG Burnison or wahtever his name is. I had NO IDEA who tha person was, but for 20 years he has been sneaking horses in and someone caught on to it. The fact that the surface has changed, it has opened it up for younger people to create their own angles from the start, we are essentially getting new tracks thus new angles.

You don't beat this game right away, it takes experience, time and a beating. Right now, everyone is back to square one with polytrack

Scav,

The past 2 years have been the first 2 that I've started playing So-Cal tracks on a somewhat frequent basis. Why? The field sizes. Whether it has something to do with the switch to poly or not, the field sizes are getting bigger, and therefore bettable. Yuo're still seeing the 5 and 6-horse fields, but not nearly as much as a few years ago.

[JJP]

I believe Arlington had 24 breakdowns last year, not 40. As for the earlier comment about randomness with Polytrack, there's no question its more random. Until the majority of horses have run 5-6 times over it, one can only draw limited conclusions. I'll bet TP, where 95% of the non-maidens have run over it, and I feel speed at least has some chance. But the crap that they run on at Kee, AP and Dmr is just brutal to watch. It looks like all the speed tires, and the deep closers can't get in gear quick enough, and the midpack runners basically inherit the win with their one paced style. And ALL the runners look like they are struggling in the stretch. Let's hope PETA doesnt watch these debacles.

I find some horseman's comments very strange: they talk about the surface not "breaking away" like dirt, yet the horses' hooves must be sinking in further because the times are so much slower. What gives? And supposedly the horses come back after a race or workout and barely blowing? Yet it seems that every horse is struggling in the stretch....yet another contradiction.

[theiman]

I have a question regarding the DM surface vs other polytracks at Arlington, Keeneland, TP, and Woodbine. It seems DM Management was insistant on not watering the track, as some horsemen had asked to perhaps tighten it up, or make it firmer. Now DM will get no rain during their meet at all. Yet the other polytracks all get rain during their meets and the tracks seem to play fairer or at least time wise a bit more normal. What effect would one or two rounds of the water truck, a day, have on the track, that rain at the other places have been able to handle? I cant see it hurting the track as the rain is supposed to filter thru the track and keep it "fast" all the time. Was it something to do with not putting the "jelly" thing into the DM polytrack vs the other poly's?

I am all for a safe surface yet it seems the research and scenarios to keep a surface safe, and competive were not done.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by JJP

I believe Arlington had 24 breakdowns last year, not 40. As for the earlier comment about randomness with Polytrack, there's no question its more random. Until the majority of horses have run 5-6 times over it, one can only draw limited conclusions. I'll bet TP, where 95% of the non-maidens have run over it, and I feel speed at least has some chance. But the crap that they run on at Kee, AP and Dmr is just brutal to watch. It looks like all the speed tires, and the deep closers can't get in gear quick enough, and the midpack runners basically inherit the win with their one paced style. And ALL the runners look like they are struggling in the stretch. Let's hope PETA doesnt watch these debacles.

I find some horseman's comments very strange: they talk about the surface not "breaking away" like dirt, yet the horses' hooves must be sinking in further because the times are so much slower. What gives? And supposedly the horses come back after a race or workout and barely blowing? Yet it seems that every horse is struggling in the stretch....yet another contradiction.

JJ, I was including morning breakdowns also in that 40 number, 24 was during races. I think that 40 number is actually larger

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Scav

JJ, I was including morning breakdowns also in that 40 number, 24 was during races. I think that 40 number is actually larger

Why are you up so late?

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Scav

JJ, I was including morning breakdowns also in that 40 number, 24 was during races. I think that 40 number is actually larger

Thats quite possible if you factor in the morning training.

I think there's going to be one very strong angle when Hawthorne opens: speed horses who tired at AP.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think you are thinking way too much into it, as if there is anything the Keeneland and Del Mar poly have shown is that it really is almost impossible to see a pattern. Trainer's sneaking in horses has nothing to do with poly but I see what you are saying. I just think the poly, with it's unpredictability will be nearly impossible to get angles from.

Your way off. I have scored on a plethra of horses with poly form that have gone to a dirt track and ran like crap and then all of a sudden they come back to poly and score at 10/1. There are plenty of patterns/angles out there, especially when you follow a poly surface like I do with Arlington.

The poly/dirt angle is going to be the strongest pattern out there, much stronger then poly/turf angle

[Scav]

More so, one of the strongest plays this year has been horses that had poly success at Keeneland going to Churchill, they were strong plays against and a majority of them didn't run as 'solid' as they did at Keeneland, this led to some super pick three/pick four scores at Churchill

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I forgot who I was talking to. Thanks for the lesson.

Let me ask you this, how much have you played tracks with poly, on a consistent basis?

[ArlJim78]

The great thing about poly is the amount of misinformation going around and that people tend to react irrationally when faced with this new variable.

I find it very hard to believe that synth. is totally random surface.
One of the main problems is the belief that fast horses are better. Or horses with a high cruising rate are better. It might just be this surface plays to endurance in a very diff. way that grass. And the horses you think or thought were crap (for whatever reason; its usually price or level run at on dirt), are actually tough animals in a war of attrition on a tiring surface. Or maybe they have a hoovestrike and stride that works well on the surface under certain conditions.

There has to be a way to cap it. It may be People are going to have to change notions and old habits drastically. I just have a hard time labeling a horse as crap when he/she has just beaten 9 other horses just because I lost a bet.

Hell maybe its just a matter of a horse relaxing and not battling the surface. Especially if they have been bred for, and trained on dirt.

I am glad it is here. And I am glad it adds some confusion. Because that leaves openings for folks willing to try and figure it out. I have seen many more horses in each race on the stuff, and larger payouts. I dont see what is wrong with that unless you are stuck on old methods that dont work anymore.

Now after stating all this betting stuff. I would much rather watch a horse run on dirt because its beautiful the way the horses can stride out on it. It really makes the horses look like the great athletes they are.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Not very consistent. I played both Keeneland meets and dabble at Cali. I just thought your "angles" are basic handicapping, no offense.

They might be basic, but the public sure hasn't picked up on them yet.

How can you argue about something that you haven't had alot of experience with?

Sometimes the simplest angles go over looked, which happens on all surfaces, but as aj said, people overreact to this stuff, all they have to do is change up their capping a little

[miraja2]

I think the addition of a third surface has to help good handicappers in the long run. Being able to track the patterns of dirt-to-poly and poly-to-dirt performances is crucial.
At Arlington, for example, there have been a number of horses coming in off nice performances at CD or Hawthorne that have been seriously overbet (especially on Saturdays when there is a lot of dead money at the track) because the switch to poly wasn't given enough consideration. I also think the "turf horses love poly" angle has been seriously overblown, so horses with good turf form are often severely overbet in their poly debuts.
So like I said, I think the addition of a third surface helps the good handicappers. That, of course, is why I hate it. I need something to help us crappy handicappers.