8/11: Arlington (Million Day) Byk Style

[brianwspencer]

Stoked about The Alcova Kid.

Won't really dig into the card until a bit later today, but that one just exploded last time -- was very impressed by the one once he got clear in the stretch.

[miraja2]

I think the key race early in the day for hitting any pick-3s and/or pick-4s in the third race. It is an especially tough 2yo MSW to figure out. I basically agree with Scav that the first and second race will be pretty chalky.
I would go 2-5, and 1-2 in those two races respectively.
In that third race, I might take a second look at the 10, American Hustler. He is by Hussonet, who was a top sire of 2yos in South America for years. He is also out of a Boston Harbor mare, and we all know that one was one of the better 2yos of the 1990s.
On top of the pedigree, Asmussen is always tough with firsters and with 2yos in general, and while American Hustler's workouts are not exactly spectacular, he has been improving and his effort on Wednesday was solid. If he goes off at around his ML odds of 8/1, he might be a smart play.
I also like the 1,2, and 6 horses here a bit, so going deep in this one might be the only way to go.

[Lava]

I going with

Race 5 $50 Win #6 Spotsgone
Race 6 $50 Win #7 Man Above
Race 7 $50 Win #9 Pleasant Strike
Race 8 $50 Win #4 Lady of Venice
Race 9 $50 Win #5 The Tin Man

Race 6 $2 Pick 6 $256
6)3/5/6/7
7)1/4/5/9
8)4
9)1/5
10)3/10
11)5/8

[jwkniska]

watch the 8 in race 5. Guidry gets back aboard and I think is a viable price horse... especially since Fort Prado will be bet to nothing.

[Spiggle24]

Arl Million;I may be way off base but I'm singling the 8 Danak.The reason is weight.No other horse in this field has EVER won a race carrying 126lbs @ any distance but the 8 has won carrying131,128(going 9 panels easily),127,129,135, and when he did carry 126 he lost to a much better group.I welcome feedback on my theory.I've only been at this a short time but it's what jumped out at me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Spiggle24

Arl Million;I may be way off base but I'm singling the 8 Danak.The reason is weight.No other horse in this field has EVER won a race carrying 126lbs @ any distance but the 8 has won carrying131,128(going 9 panels easily),127,129,135, and when he did carry 126 he lost to a much better group.I welcome feedback on my theory.I've only been at this a short time but it's what jumped out at me.

Danak is a decent choice, but I wouldn't be singling him based strictly on weight. The Tin Man, Doctor Dino and Jambalaya consistently carry close to that weight. The horse that everyone should NOT be playing is After Market. Short rest getting 6lbs on a surface he will not like. I would be surprised to see him go off as the favored, probably 3rd choice. Dino or Danak will take money tomorrow.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Scav

Danak is a decent choice, but I wouldn't be singling him based strictly on weight. The Tin Man, Doctor Dino and Jambalaya consistently carry close to that weight. The horse that everyone should NOT be playing is After Market. Short rest getting 6lbs on a surface he will not like. I would be surprised to see him go off as the favored, probably 3rd choice. Dino or Danak will take money tomorrow.

aftermarket is a bill mott hartburn horse just like miesq..he is solid and will give great performance.......do not toss

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think the key race early in the day for hitting any pick-3s and/or pick-4s in the third race. It is an especially tough 2yo MSW to figure out. I basically agree with Scav that the first and second race will be pretty chalky.
I would go 2-5, and 1-2 in those two races respectively.
In that third race, I might take a second look at the 10, American Hustler. He is by Hussonet, who was a top sire of 2yos in South America for years. He is also out of a Boston Harbor mare, and we all know that one was one of the better 2yos of the 1990s.
On top of the pedigree, Asmussen is always tough with firsters and with 2yos in general, and while American Hustler's workouts are not exactly spectacular, he has been improving and his effort on Wednesday was solid. If he goes off at around his ML odds of 8/1, he might be a smart play.
I also like the 1,2, and 6 horses here a bit, so going deep in this one might be the only way to go.

I was looking hard and long at this race (3rd) tonight as well hoping to connect a score on the P3 for wagering money later.

The 2 Boss Lafitte has a very nice string of bullet works on the AP track at 5F a series of which are sub 60 sconds which on poly are more than decent.

The dreaded Breeze figs have the 4 Recapturetheglory as a Group 1 star with The 2 BL and AH as solid Group 2 or moderate class advantaged.

At 15-1 with Van Deren clicking on 40% this meet albeit small numbers (4 of 10) the work out pattern decent and the second race angle I'll take a shot with Recapturethegold over Boss Lafitte/American Hustler and try and take advantage of those that have either run or worked Arlington and will generate a price. Small reverse exacta's 4/2,10 and hope to generate enough scratch to play more seriously later in the day.

[docicu3]

4TH 1/16 Turf

My guess it that this race will be taken off the turf to perserve the course for the more important races later (Racing Secretary should get an earful for running 4 turf races BEFORE the Million) Capping for either/or, no difference in Poly/Turf anyways

1. #9 Neosho Red (15/1)
2. #11 Wayoff (5/1) (Huge jock switch)
A. #3 The Alcova Kid (15/1)
B. #6 Holy Thursday (2/1)

If your right that it will be taken off then everything chnges as there are a number of horses here that seem almost like MTO's

Having said that why are you tossing the #1 Jump'ien with Douglas staying on after moving too quickly last race and running out of gas because of that move. If on turf the #'s are solid with almost 3 pair up's on the sheets and closing numbers are very similiar to 3,6. I agree Robbie is a trade up on the 11 but the 1 is a very competitive horse here.

Do you know something about the 9 that isn't obvious as first time grass, have never seen anything about sire Dave and Busters other than it's a great sports bar up here in Rockville (chain?) The numbers are very close to the
1's except this ones never been on green. Dam do anything special on grass?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by docicu3

4TH 1/16 Turf

My guess it that this race will be taken off the turf to perserve the course for the more important races later (Racing Secretary should get an earful for running 4 turf races BEFORE the Million) Capping for either/or, no difference in Poly/Turf anyways

1. #9 Neosho Red (15/1)
2. #11 Wayoff (5/1) (Huge jock switch)
A. #3 The Alcova Kid (15/1)
B. #6 Holy Thursday (2/1)

If your right that it will be taken off then everything chnges as there are a number of horses here that seem almost like MTO's

Having said that why are you tossing the #1 Jump'ien with Douglas staying on after moving too quickly last race and running out of gas because of that move. If on turf the #'s are solid with almost 3 pair up's on the sheets and closing numbers are very similiar to 3,6. I agree Robbie is a trade up on the 11 but the 1 is a very competitive horse here.

Do you know something about the 9 that isn't obvious as first time grass, have never seen anything about sire Dave and Busters other than it's a great sports bar up here in Rockville (chain?) The numbers are very close to the
1's except this ones never been on green. Dam do anything special on grass?

TG wise, out of a small sampling, D&B's horses have jumped up almost 8pts. That alone is enough for me to include and play him straight. And if it goes to the Poly, his numbers are as competitive as anyone else in the field.

I am tossing the 1 because he is a hanger at short odds. I have seen the horse run multiple times and I don't care if this horse was as fast as Secretariat, he is getting zero of my money. He doesn't have the will to win in my opinion

[Scav]

Originally Posted by docicu3

I was looking hard and long at this race (3rd) tonight as well hoping to connect a score on the P3 for wagering money later.

The 2 Boss Lafitte has a very nice string of bullet works on the AP track at 5F a series of which are sub 60 sconds which on poly are more than decent.

The dreaded Breeze figs have the 4 Recapturetheglory as a Group 1 star with The 2 BL and AH as solid Group 2 or moderate class advantaged.

At 15-1 with Van Deren clicking on 40% this meet albeit small numbers (4 of 10) the work out pattern decent and the second race angle I'll take a shot with Recapturethegold over Boss Lafitte/American Hustler and try and take advantage of those that have either run or worked Arlington and will generate a price. Small reverse exacta's 4/2,10 and hope to generate enough scratch to play more seriously later in the day.

All you need to do with Recapturetheglory is look at the opening odds on him. If he is 3 or 4/1 first click, the horse is live as live is, but if he is dead, he is a no play. She doesn't push her babies and usually sees what they have first out. Recapture broke a length slow and then got bumped around pretty bad, I expect him to hit the board tomorrow