8/11: Arlington (Million Day) Byk Style

[viscount26]

Scav,
Which sequence is the pk 3 & pk 4

grassy ass

[Scav]

Pick 3's in all races except the last two
Guaranteed 250k pool for races 7-9
Pick Fours in races 2 and 9

[ArlJim78]

nice formatting scav. is that what you meant by Byk style?
for true Byk style you have to add color though.

[Scav]

Yes, I made my picks based on his format

THE "1-2/A-B" SELECTION FORMAT

Additionally, for those that missed it the last time, here is an explanation of the thinking behind my "1-2/A-B" format:

1. Best horse, at best price, with an opportunity to win (often a value play, sometimes a 'too good' ML fave)
2. Most likely winner at any price (frequently the 'most obvious' horse)
A. Horse that has chance to win but is more likely an exotics player
B. Exotics filler for tri/supers (often a short-priced 'must use' that I'm trying to beat)

[brianwspencer]

Stoked about The Alcova Kid.

Won't really dig into the card until a bit later today, but that one just exploded last time -- was very impressed by the one once he got clear in the stretch.

[miraja2]

I think the key race early in the day for hitting any pick-3s and/or pick-4s in the third race. It is an especially tough 2yo MSW to figure out. I basically agree with Scav that the first and second race will be pretty chalky.
I would go 2-5, and 1-2 in those two races respectively.
In that third race, I might take a second look at the 10, American Hustler. He is by Hussonet, who was a top sire of 2yos in South America for years. He is also out of a Boston Harbor mare, and we all know that one was one of the better 2yos of the 1990s.
On top of the pedigree, Asmussen is always tough with firsters and with 2yos in general, and while American Hustler's workouts are not exactly spectacular, he has been improving and his effort on Wednesday was solid. If he goes off at around his ML odds of 8/1, he might be a smart play.
I also like the 1,2, and 6 horses here a bit, so going deep in this one might be the only way to go.

[Lava]

I going with

Race 5 $50 Win #6 Spotsgone
Race 6 $50 Win #7 Man Above
Race 7 $50 Win #9 Pleasant Strike
Race 8 $50 Win #4 Lady of Venice
Race 9 $50 Win #5 The Tin Man

Race 6 $2 Pick 6 $256
6)3/5/6/7
7)1/4/5/9
8)4
9)1/5
10)3/10
11)5/8

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think the key race early in the day for hitting any pick-3s and/or pick-4s in the third race. It is an especially tough 2yo MSW to figure out. I basically agree with Scav that the first and second race will be pretty chalky.
I would go 2-5, and 1-2 in those two races respectively.
In that third race, I might take a second look at the 10, American Hustler. He is by Hussonet, who was a top sire of 2yos in South America for years. He is also out of a Boston Harbor mare, and we all know that one was one of the better 2yos of the 1990s.
On top of the pedigree, Asmussen is always tough with firsters and with 2yos in general, and while American Hustler's workouts are not exactly spectacular, he has been improving and his effort on Wednesday was solid. If he goes off at around his ML odds of 8/1, he might be a smart play.
I also like the 1,2, and 6 horses here a bit, so going deep in this one might be the only way to go.

I was looking hard and long at this race (3rd) tonight as well hoping to connect a score on the P3 for wagering money later.

The 2 Boss Lafitte has a very nice string of bullet works on the AP track at 5F a series of which are sub 60 sconds which on poly are more than decent.

The dreaded Breeze figs have the 4 Recapturetheglory as a Group 1 star with The 2 BL and AH as solid Group 2 or moderate class advantaged.

At 15-1 with Van Deren clicking on 40% this meet albeit small numbers (4 of 10) the work out pattern decent and the second race angle I'll take a shot with Recapturethegold over Boss Lafitte/American Hustler and try and take advantage of those that have either run or worked Arlington and will generate a price. Small reverse exacta's 4/2,10 and hope to generate enough scratch to play more seriously later in the day.