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#1
08-01-2007, 08:50 PM
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AP Through July 22: Closers- 33% Stalkers 25% Pressers: 17% Speed: 25% Winning Margin: 1/2 length or less: 30% 3/4-2: 34% 2 1/4- 4: 22% 4 1/2+ 14% Outside: 54% Inside: 46% Chalk: 29% 3-1 or less: 48% 7-2 to 9-1: 34% 10-1 + 18% Average Payoff Poly: $15.00 Turf: $13.39
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"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote 
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#2
08-01-2007, 10:58 PM
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More on this story . . .
http://www.drf.com/news/article/87205.html I see both sides of the fence on this. However, as much as I hate to say it, I think a good amount of the criticism is "crying" -- and that's not meant as criticism. The bettor is used to, wants, is looking for, etc. -- a bias, pattern, trend, whatever you want to call it. Reliability is something that could be ideal, but it plays both ways. Regardless, does this make handicapping more difficult? It sure does. Of course. But we have to act, react, and adapt to that. It's not the same arguement that Baffert is making -- two different tracks -- nobody bets on "races in the morning" and if you can't see what the works are, mean, and are reflective of, etc., well that's another issue. The trainer -- is looking for consistency. Sure, in an ideal world, that would be ideal. It's safe, reliable, etc. However, Baffert is taking this arguement to an extreme; or perhaps Zayat is. This is not taking the speed out of the track, or the game. It's a byproduct, not a goal. Cause and effect? Should there be tweaking? OK, but I think in the larger picture, that decision needs to be left to the experts -- or the closest ones to being an expert, and I don't think Baffert or Zayat fall into that camp. The majority of the trainers and jocks I've spoke with are positive about the surface. Sure, there's a learning curve, a life-cycle, and change is inevitable -- liked, disliked, wanted, or not. I think Baffert is distorting the real issue here. Talking about "taking the speed out" is somewhat narrow-minded. How does it affect him more than others? Because of the yearlings, 2yo's, etc. he bought? What about other trainers? It's a futile arguement. The claims of the manufacturers about maintenence, ongoing costs, and everything else is also not the issue here. You can't unring a bell. That's more scapegoat type of excuses to distort or deflect the arguement as well. I don't think that saying "weather was neglected" or not taken into consideration, or anything of the like for that matter, justifies anything. Eric
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#3
08-01-2007, 11:10 PM
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By STEVE ANDERSEN DEL MAR, Calif. - The first two weeks of racing on Del Mar's new Polytrack synthetic surface have left trainer Art Sherman baffled at times on the best way to prepare his horses. He says the course he trains over in the morning is firmer than it is during the afternoon, when abundant sunshine makes the course more tiring. It has not been an easy transition for a trainer long-accustomed to racing on a speed-oriented conventional dirt track, and it has forced him to change his training style. "I let them gallop and open up in the last part," he said, referring to a quicker finish during morning exercise. "I'm putting more miles in them. I'm training hard. I'm trying to adapt in how I train. It's been a long process. "A couple of horses that ran well at Hollywood Park, I thought they'd run well and they staggered in." Put simply, Sherman wishes the course played quicker, but realizes that is unlikely to occur. "I've had a couple of different issues," Sherman said. "I think we have two different tracks from the morning to the afternoon. I wish they could tighten it down. If they could tighten it down, that would be the way to go." Sherman said one adjustment he has made is expecting slower times for workouts and races. He had two horses - All Thee B and Movie Fan - work six furlongs in 1:16.80 on Wednesday morning. On a conventional dirt track, or even a Cushion Track synthetic surface such as Hollywood Park's, that would be slow time, but the time did not concern Sherman. "That was a decent work," he said. "They would have gone in 1:14 on a different surface. You have to adjust." Friday, Sherman starts Mike's Trippin in the eighth race, a maiden claimer over 5 1/2 furlongs. Mike's Trippin, winless in six starts, has enough speed to be an early factor. How the 3-year-old will handle his first start on Polytrack is a mystery to Sherman. Sherman is convinced that Mike's Trippin needs every advantage to win Friday. He fears the track is not conducive to front-runners, which will make it more difficult for Mike's Trippin to win despite the race's short distance. The modest race is Mike's Trippin's first start as a gelding, according to Sherman, who took the precaution of shipping the 3-year-old from Hollywood Park to Del Mar last week to give him a few extra days of training on Polytrack. "He's a speed horse," Sherman said. "Maybe by the last race, the track might tighten up." --------------- Riot, u asked what others? Shirreffs and Sherman to name a couple who have come forward in the past day. As I said, if u know anyone that works around there or anyone that knows anyone, ask. U will come to realize there are others.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#4
08-02-2007, 12:03 AM
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In the end the market will tell us if its acceptable to both horsemen and the player, if no one runs and even worse if no one plays then you will see changes.
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#5
08-02-2007, 12:12 AM
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just train the horses differently
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#9
08-02-2007, 12:34 AM
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From an exercise-physiology standpoint, btw, it's known that if too many miles are added to a horse in training, it can reduce it's speed. I think this "new surface" challenge will showcase trainers who are more adept at identifying an individual animals assets and weaknesses, and training an individual animal to top potential. Some animals get by on innate ability, some are brought to new heights beyond expectation due to astute training. As ArlJim said, someone is winning these races  Quote:
A horse that could fly for 7 furlongs over a hard, fast track may only be able to reproduce a similar performance over 6 or 6 1/2 without the assistance of the faster track. Dirt and turf tracks vary widely between different race tracks, all have their own reputations - and as handicappers, we all know that. Some tracks historically have favored front-runners, and allowed them to carry their speed farther than at other tracks, some tracks favor stalkers or even closers. I think we all know what style California historically is known for That's why I'm very interested in seeing what CA horses get on the Derby prep race trail next year - how will they do?So it doesn't surprise me that some trainers will have some horses that don't do as well on this surface as on another, or on cushion vs. poly, on Keeneland poly vs Arlington, etc. They may have to learn how to spot their horses a bit differently to give the horse the optimal chance to perform to it's best level. Quote:
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"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#10
08-02-2007, 07:42 AM
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#11
08-02-2007, 08:43 AM
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__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote
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#13
08-02-2007, 09:21 AM
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I'd also like to compare it to AP's dirt numbers same time last year. I'm sure they differ, but maybe not as much as other track's dirt to poly conversions, based on what I've been reading about Delmar and saw at Keeneland
__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote
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#14
08-02-2007, 09:59 AM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#15
08-02-2007, 11:00 AM
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Since Zayat and Baffert likes speed horses so much, maybe they should move to Charles Town and Mountaineer..
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#16
08-02-2007, 01:16 PM
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or Monmouth
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#17
08-06-2007, 08:41 AM
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http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...cle.cgi?id=318 in the left section of that page, go to the "At A Glance" tab and pick your track. Hope this is what you were looking for....
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#18
08-06-2007, 12:46 PM
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#19
08-06-2007, 01:17 PM
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through 8/4
Saratoga dirt; fav win%, fav itm%, ave win payout, %wire sprints, %wire routes 26%, 61%, $6.38, 17%, 25% DelMar poly; 33%, 66%, $6.39, 30%, 5% So far we've heard that at Del Mar because of the polytrack it's totally random, you can't make any sense of the outcomes. Like its some topsy turvy world where you can't apply any rules that handicappers normally would use. Well it would seem that somebody is clued in because so far looking at favorites it is more predictable than Saratoga. Notice also that the statements that people make about speed not holding up well only applies to routes. at sprint distances speed is doing much better than at Saratoga.
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#20
08-07-2007, 02:19 AM
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Hybrid Mode
