Lawyer Ron's Time

[mes5107]

My 5 clockings of the Go For Wand:
1:49.50
1:49.41
1:49.28
1:49.34
1:49.25

I believe the track was rather fast, but the Go For Wand was run rather slow. I agree that Lawyer Ron probably did not earn a 128, but a 120 is not out of the question. Perhaps we should use Diamond Stripes as a projection horse at about a 106. That would give Lawyer Ron a 115 which is 23 points off of the raw figure of 138. Applying that variant to Ginger Punch would leave her running a 91.

If we use an average of both projections for the variant (-10 and -23) we get an average variant of -17. That gives Lawyer Ron a 121 and Ginger Punch a 97.

I think the times were right.

[JJP]

Let's face it; the actual time really doesn't matter. We know the gaps involved separating the horses. Lets take a look at the top 5 finishers showing their top route dirt figs, and their last race Beyers:

Lawyer Ron 109, 108 (last race)
Wanderin Boy 113, 90 (last race). His two top dirt figs, 113 and 111, were loose on lead wire jobs at the old biased Kee. Is it likely he ran superior to those numbers? Its highly doubtful.
Diamond Stripes 106 & 104---he's been in the 104-106 range for his last 4 starts.
Fairbanks-115 & 103--the 115 was a loose on the lead runaway job. The 103, accomplished in his last, would be a far more likely number he'd run.
Dry Martini- 107 & 107--This is a horse who very often runs in the 100-103 area. The 107 was accomplished on Bute, at a track that often produces Beyers that are suspiciously high.

Likely projected figures before the race:

Dry Martini--102
Fairbanks--103
Diamond Stripes---106

These are the most likely numbers that could've occurred. In reality, the differential between Fairbanks and Dry Martini should be 2 pts, not 1. Based on this, Wanderin Boy would be 2 pts higher (1 length at 9f) than Diamond Stripes, giving him a 108. He's run a 107 and 106 on non-old Keeneland surfaces, so that is plausible. Higher than a 108 would not be likely. So for Lawyer Ron, we add on 8 pts, giving him a 116, a solid new top, but very likely considering his win margin. These are my projected figures (I use the Beyer scale):

Lawyer Ron 116
Wanderin Boy 108
Diamond Stripes 106
Fairbanks 103
Dry Martini 101

[mes5107]

Very sound reasoning in constructing your figure. The only problem is that leaves Ginger Punch with a 92 BSF. While it is possible that she scored a 6 length victory at a 92 figure, I think that it is unlikely. I believe she ran a slower than normal figure, but 12 points is quite a regression in a winning effort.
The question this poses is whether or not the timer was functioning properly in both races. Steven Crist (http://www.drf.com/news/article/87120.html) argues that the Whitney was an unlikely record time, but I think that it is more likely that the Go For Wand was an exceptionally slow race and both clockings are correct.

[Travis Stone]

It is very possible (and likely) that Wanderin Boy ran a new top yesterday because he had everything go his own way on a track which favored his running style.

[31lengths]

Interesting....from the comments of the same article.

Steve Davidowitz says:

After Alan Klayman's report of the race clocking off the ABC Video Tape that he sdubmitted to this blog a few hours ago, I tried to time the race again off the NYRA website and the streaming video quality was poor. Would not trust my own previous clocking off that site. Strongly reitterate suggestion to NYRA to time this race with calibrated timing device off their in-house, real time, video replays). As others have suggested, the NYRA should do this as soon as possible.
Regards/Steve Davidowitz

Posted by: Steve Davidowitz | Jul 29, 2007 12:52:11 PM

[Merlinsky]

*shrugs* The time seems legit to me, every time I look at it and the race. Here's two of the comments from DRF.com's article that, to me, confirm it. (I think there's some sputtering about it being Lawyer Ron who did this performance and it's not really fair. If you go by what you might've thought him capable before his Derby flop, I could see him getting to this point one day. 128 might be crazy but no way is this a 107-110 performance either. His reputation was very what has he done for me lately and he's working his way back. He got a track record and it sure looked like he was turning in one with the way he ran. Sometimes your eyes aren't deceiving you when you look at the final time. Kinda refreshing and the horse should be recognized for that.)

Silver Charm says:

TVG ran a bit of a side-by-side comparison between this Whitney and the one by Left Bank seeming to reasonably confirm the time.

Actually a half in 47.37 for a race that appeared to be speed laden seems more out of whack than three-quarters in 1:10.28.

Once the investigation is completed there will be two groups of people with some explaining to do.

If the time is wrong then NYRA chairman Steve Duncker will need to explain to fans and a National Television audience why the Track Record they were told they had witnessed was bogus.

If the time is correct then the Track Superintendant needs to explain why he and his crew felt compelled to "goose the track" before the Big Race.

Posted by: Silver Charm | Jul 29, 2007 2:14:14 PM

Sal says:

I hand timed the Whitney twice and got the correct final time on each occasion.

I did the same thing in the Go For Wand and also got the correct final time.

In multiple clockings of each race, I came within 0.27 seconds of having every split correct. That tells me the fractional times are accurate as well.

To come away with 1:48 and change clockings, as Mr. Davidowitz did, I believe you have to start timing just after the gates open and before horses reach the finish line.

Basically, getting the final time plus run-up.

Posted by: Sal | Jul 29, 2007 2:25:09 PM

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

*shrugs* The time seems legit to me, every time I look at it and the race. Here's two of the comments from DRF.com's article that, to me, confirm it. (I think there's some sputtering about it being Lawyer Ron who did this performance and it's not really fair. If you go by what you might've thought him capable before his Derby flop, I could see him getting to this point one day. 128 might be crazy but no way is this a 107-110 performance either. His reputation was very what has he done for me lately and he's working his way back. He got a track record and it sure looked like he was turning in one with the way he ran. Sometimes your eyes aren't deceiving you when you look at the final time. Kinda refreshing and the horse should be recognized for that.)

i know the person who posted that on drf, and trust me, he's completely incompetent. i'm surprised he even knows how to turn a computer on, let alone use a stop watch.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by JJP

Let's face it; the actual time really doesn't matter. We know the gaps involved separating the horses. Lets take a look at the top 5 finishers showing their top route dirt figs, and their last race Beyers:

Lawyer Ron 109, 108 (last race)
Wanderin Boy 113, 90 (last race). His two top dirt figs, 113 and 111, were loose on lead wire jobs at the old biased Kee. Is it likely he ran superior to those numbers? Its highly doubtful.
Diamond Stripes 106 & 104---he's been in the 104-106 range for his last 4 starts.
Fairbanks-115 & 103--the 115 was a loose on the lead runaway job. The 103, accomplished in his last, would be a far more likely number he'd run.
Dry Martini- 107 & 107--This is a horse who very often runs in the 100-103 area. The 107 was accomplished on Bute, at a track that often produces Beyers that are suspiciously high.

Likely projected figures before the race:

Dry Martini--102
Fairbanks--103
Diamond Stripes---106

These are the most likely numbers that could've occurred. In reality, the differential between Fairbanks and Dry Martini should be 2 pts, not 1. Based on this, Wanderin Boy would be 2 pts higher (1 length at 9f) than Diamond Stripes, giving him a 108. He's run a 107 and 106 on non-old Keeneland surfaces, so that is plausible. Higher than a 108 would not be likely. So for Lawyer Ron, we add on 8 pts, giving him a 116, a solid new top, but very likely considering his win margin. These are my projected figures (I use the Beyer scale):

Lawyer Ron 116
Wanderin Boy 108
Diamond Stripes 106
Fairbanks 103
Dry Martini 101

Great minds think alike, and Hopkins definitely got this one right on the money.

[ELA]

I'm not quite sure what the alleged controversy is now about. Of course, as far as the time goes, that could have been a very serious issue; however, the time could have been and was verified and relatively very quickly. There might have been a time delay in getting the verification out, but the very next day on the backstretch it was a non-issue.

Regarding the Beyer #, I read the article(s) as everyone else has as well. The "human" or personal element of the Beyer # has always been present. Being that the track record time cannot be disputed -- as a "raw", recorded time -- that only leaves other "variables" at play. If the comprehensive data comes back with a 123, then it is what it is. However, we aren't talking about 123 here. We are talking about 116.

As a matter of fact, Mark Hopkins came right out and said that the horse never came close to 123. Of course he gave all the "data" to support that.

However, my question is -- why? Because Lawyer Ron never ran better than 109? I understand the 2005 Whitney and the afterthoughts of perhaps the #'s being mistaken or inaccurate, however, is there where a "wrong" is made "right" so to speak?

There is a "human" element to the Beyer #, and we all know it's not science or exclusively formulaic.

Eric

[JJP]

Yes there definitely is. If they assigned Lawyer Ron a 123, it would not only been a huge new top for him, but for a number of horses in the field. The chances of numerous horses in a race jumping up and either running new tops or dramatically improved figures (with the exception of 2YO races and early season 3YOs) isn't very likely. Could Wanderin Boy run a 115, not only in defeat, but away from the old rail biased Keeneland? I seriously doubt it. Could Diamond Stripes run a 113? Maybe with a perfect trip in a winning effort; doubtful here in defeat. Could Fairbanks run a 110 without the aid of an easy lead? Doubtful. Could Dry Martini run a 109, only 2 pts better than his win in Iowa? Maybe but the 107 he ran was in a winning effort, on Bute and the figure maker at PrM is often on the too generous side. Not impossible, but not likely he ran a 109. Kudos to Hopkins and Beyer for nailing this one.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I had the Whitney a 115 and the Go For Wand a 91.

I used the same variant for both races.

I think the Go For Wand was a much less impressive race than people think, and doubt the track changed speeds so much in that 30 minutes of time.

If anything, the track would have changed speeds before the Grade 2 sprint stake.

However, the top 7 finishers in that race had only been seperated by four lengths, and it didn't come back eye-opening fast. The last place finisher in the race ran 1:09 and change.

Like the Go For Wand...it was another unimpressive race.

If anyone is looking to try and take away from Lawer Ron's performance, I guess you'd have to start with the fact that the ultra moderate Magna Graduate was the post time favorite in the Whitney.

[Merlinsky]

I still think all the rubbarb about the time and Beyer (specifically whether he set the track record) was at least partially motivated by the idea that Lawyer Ron's gonna be slugging it out with the other mid-range stallions once he hits the shed and something like a track record at Saratoga at a mile and an eighth in a G1 is an achievement certain folks would just love to take away from him so he doesn't pull mares from their stallion. I don't think the DRF article would be written the way it was if they were trying to validate the time of a Bernardini for example. He's more people's horse than blue blood and it just burned somebody that they didn't think him capable of it and he proved himself. So the 'well that can't be right, I didn't see it coming' plus 'a record like that costs somebody money' caused a controversy to crop up where it could've been handled much more professionally. There's a way to be upbeat and say you're excited a record may have been obtained and are hoping to validate it as soon as possible versus practically declaring you expect that the timer was broken as so many did. It sure looked like a horse running a track record time to me, when I saw that race, and a 116 because the other races on the card weren't as strong when LR turned in something this flashy is stupid. Wonderful performances are supposed to stand out. Gotta take him down a peg though. Just can't help themselves. It could be the best performance he does from here on out but so what? Let him have the career highlight if he earns it. If he can't go over 112 from here on out, oh well. Some days a horse just feels good.

[letswastemoney]

I think Lawyer Ron's performance sort of "carried" the other horses to do better than they normally would.

[31lengths]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I still think all the rubbarb about the time and Beyer (specifically whether he set the track record) was at least partially motivated by the idea that Lawyer Ron's gonna be slugging it out with the other mid-range stallions once he hits the shed and something like a track record at Saratoga at a mile and an eighth in a G1 is an achievement certain folks would just love to take away from him so he doesn't pull mares from their stallion. I don't think the DRF article would be written the way it was if they were trying to validate the time of a Bernardini for example. He's more people's horse than blue blood and it just burned somebody that they didn't think him capable of it and he proved himself. So the 'well that can't be right, I didn't see it coming' plus 'a record like that costs somebody money' caused a controversy to crop up where it could've been handled much more professionally. There's a way to be upbeat and say you're excited a record may have been obtained and are hoping to validate it as soon as possible versus practically declaring you expect that the timer was broken as so many did. It sure looked like a horse running a track record time to me, when I saw that race, and a 116 because the other races on the card weren't as strong when LR turned in something this flashy is stupid. Wonderful performances are supposed to stand out. Gotta take him down a peg though. Just can't help themselves. It could be the best performance he does from here on out but so what? Let him have the career highlight if he earns it. If he can't go over 112 from here on out, oh well. Some days a horse just feels good.

Well said and good points.

Barry Bonds