1st week of Del Mar/Poly

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Honu

I have a theory , Im not a gambler but from watching the races on the Poly at Del Mar you need to be looking at the horses that run consistant fractions of twelve , horses that run twelves for the eigths but cant catch the front speed are the horses that seem to be doing the best .

If a horse that's going beyond a mile over this surface, even a top class horse, is running 12 for each furlong, he's going way too fast and will bite the dust through the lane.

As an example, just take a look at the talentless April claimer Sun Boat, in his victory in the 8.5 furlong Grade 2 San Diego Stakes on Saturday.

After a quarter mile he was dead last, 10 lengths off of a 24.54 first quarter. So, basically, he ran his first quarter in the 26's. A couple of 13 and small change 1/8ths to start. From there he picked it up and ran a steady diet of eights in the mid-to-high 12's.

Had a horse in the San Diego ran 12 flat eights throughout the entire running of the race, he'd have won by about 20 lengths.