Commentator is back

[blackthroatedwind]

Then why was your previous smart ass response necessary? Perhaps you would do better to give your actual point and not snide remarks that don't reflect well on you.

In response to this last post, I would say if the odds are accurate over time, then any random snapshot rates to be accurate. Obviously, as horsepleyers, we attempt to exploit inaccuracies in just this. On the other hand, do you honestly believe that in any random race we are always going to be correct in OUR assumptions of relative chances of winning?

Personally, by the way, if you lined Commentator up against the four horses you mentioned, assuming all were in their primes, at 6F, I believe Commentator should be 4:5. I suppose should Henny Hughes demonstrate his debut this year was legit he could be a threat, but based on all of their career races, Commentator is a superior animal...at least on his best day versus their best days.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Then why was your previous smart ass response necessary? Perhaps you would do better to give your actual point and not snide remarks that don't reflect well on you.

In response to this last post, I would say if the odds are accurate over time, then any random snapshot rates to be accurate. Obviously, as horsepleyers, we attempt to exploit inaccuracies in just this. On the other hand, do you honestly believe that in any random race we are always going to be correct in OUR assumptions of relative chances of winning?

Personally, by the way, if you lined Commentator up against the four horses you mentioned, assuming all were in their primes, at 6F, I believe Commentator should be 4:5. I suppose should Henny Hughes demonstrate his debut this year was legit he could be a threat, but based on all of their career races, Commentator is a superior animal...at least on his best day versus their best days.

You may not realize it, but you have a habit of talking down to people on here, and it gets pretty irritating. And I have a habit of being a smartass. I think we'll get along just fine.

We're gonna have to agree to disagree on Commentator, but I still say the point you made about his odds is still completely irrelevant and I think most would agree.

[Gander]

I dont think a 6F win is out of the question for Commentator. But a 6F win in the BC Sprint against real nice horses who undoubtedly find 6F as their best distances like Lost in the Fog, Bordonaro, Anew, Kellys Landing, Henny Hughes and Proud Tower Too seems a bit unlikely.

I think his better chance for glory comes in longer races he can steal away on the front end and I think a win in the BC Classic would be more likely than a win in the BC Sprint.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You may not realize it, but you have a habit of talking down to people on here, and it gets pretty irritating. And I have a habit of being a smartass. I think we'll get along just fine.

We're gonna have to agree to disagree on Commentator, but I still say the point you made about his odds is still completely irrelevant and I think most would agree.

I guess I need to talk down to more people here if they agree with you on the odds issue.

I'm open to any intelligent defense of your side. I certainly haven't heard one.

By the way, that wasn't talking down, that was honesty.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess I need to talk down to more people here if they agree with you on the odds issue.

I'm open to any intelligent defense of your side. I certainly haven't heard one.

By the way, that wasn't talking down, that was honesty.

I'm the one that needs an intelligent defense?

Your "point" is that because Commentator would be "no worse than second choice" in the BC Sprint, that somehow makes him more likely to win to win the race than if he were third or fourth choice, and I have no intelligent defense?

Guess the horses learned how to read odds, because you seem to think how the races are bet affect how the horses run.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm the one that needs an intelligent defense?

Your "point" is that because Commentator would be "no worse than second choice" in the BC Sprint, that somehow makes him more likely to win to win the race than if he were third or fourth choice, and I have no intelligent defense?

Guess the horses learned how to read odds, because you seem to think how the races are bet affect how the horses run.

So as not to appear to be talking down to you I will be as succinct as possible...

That response was your stupidest and least thought out yet. The only thing you are demonstrating is that you don't have a clue as to what I am talking about. Sorry, you are also demonstrating a complete lack of understanding of probability.

At the risk of talking down to you, as you don't seem to be leaving me much choice, statistically speaking the second choice has a better chance of winning ( this means he WILL win more often ) than the third or fourth choice.

We need some BC Futures now. Why doesn't horse racing put up some BC Futures up this time of year? I know some people here have some pull, how about suggesting it to somebody.

Originally Posted by boldruler

We need some BC Futures now. Why doesn't horse racing put up some BC Futures up this time of year? I know some people here have some pull, how about suggesting it to somebody.

That has long been talked about....Churchill Downs owns the Derby and Oaks so they can implement that wager on their races, but the NTRA and BC committee would have to initiate a BC future wager.....I agree 110% that there is a market for it.....BTW, Vegas allows future wagering on the BC but I don't think they have begun it yet if I'm not mistaken....

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So as not to appear to be talking down to you I will be as succinct as possible...

That response was your stupidest and least thought out yet. The only thing you are demonstrating is that you don't have a clue as to what I am talking about. Sorry, you are also demonstrating a complete lack of understanding of probability.

At the risk of talking down to you, as you don't seem to be leaving me much choice, statistically speaking the second choice has a better chance of winning ( this means he WILL win more often ) than the third or fourth choice.

As will I (be succinct)..

I made the point that I don't believe Commentator can keep up with Henny Hughes, Anew, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, etc. at six furlongs.

Your response, essentially was:

"Well, out of those four, probably only Lost in the Fog will take more money!"

Kudos.

Your point is ridiculous. Using your logic, I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

As will I (be succinct)..

I made the point that I don't believe Commentator can keep up with Henny Hughes, Anew, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, etc. at six furlongs.

Your response, essentially was:

"Well, out of those four, probably only Lost in the Fog will take more money!"

Kudos.

Your point is ridiculous. Using your logic, I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race.

Oh boy!

Yes " I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race " this is not only true according to my " logic " but it is true statistically and would be proven just that over time. In fact, believe it or not, this is the entire point. This is a mathematical concept and NOT a handicapping one and I have NEVER claimed it was anything else. YOU may be insinuating I have but I think if you really reread the chain of events in this thread, you will see that is not the case.

I understand full well that there will be many races where you or I will NOT think the second choice is the second likeliest winner ( and believe it or not, in a true mathematical universe, we will also probably be right in this assumption on occasion ). That, however, is not, nor was it ever, the point I was making.

Honestly, I think you, Byk and I could probably hash this out over a drink sometime this summer. Byk can bring along his abacus in a desperate attempt to keep up.