CRC: Summit of Speed Pick Five

[ateamstupid]

Leg D (Race 11): 23RD RUNNING OF THE PRINCESS ROONEY HANDICAP (GRADE I). $500,000, F&M-3+, 6 FURLONGS.

1 - SONGOFTHESOUTH (Douglas Potter / Eddie Nunez)
Concerto filly came out of nowhere with that last effort, running a new top by 13 points on the BSF scale and 4 1/2 points on the TG scale in taking a local N3L by 5 1/4 over a sealed track. Could've been that last nuance that contributed to the big effort, but perhaps she's turned a corner. She gets in very light and has shown versatility. Still seems to be on the outside looking in.

2 - NOSSA CANCAO (A.C. Avila / Omar Berrio)
CA shipper did some good things in the winter, namely run a big second at 37-1 in the G1 Santa Monica H. at SA, although she's struggled to recapture that form since. She always seems to come with her run, but it rarely ever seems to be enough to get her across the wire first. Berrio confident enough to fly cross-country for the ride and closers usually fare well in Summit races, but she looks like an outsider at this point.

3 - INDIAN FLARE (Bobby Frankel / Aaron Gryder)
Juddmonte mare certainly is very good when at her best, but it seems to take her quite a while to get back to her top after a big race, and she's coming off a very big effort with her score in the G2 Vagrancy H. at BEL. Dangerous and versatile, but questionable as to whether she can avoid regression.

4 - SELVATICA (Julio Canani / Jorge Chavez)
Lightly-raced six-year-old certainly is familiar with the winner's circle, having scored seven times in 12 starts, including six of eight since summer of '05, and she's been earning very good figures in the process. Problem is, she's a need-the-lead type who will perhaps be racing against some other quickies as well as the grain of the racetrack. Gets the acid test.

5 - MARYFIELD (Doug O'Neill / Elvis Trujillo)
Elusive Quality mare ran a big one two back in the G2 Distaff BC H. on the AQU inner, scoring by 2 1/4 despite trouble at 6-1, but she was far up the track in the G1 Humana Distaff and now her regular pilot, Chavez, ends up aboard the girl to her inside. She's very tough when on her game, but that big AQU win is clouded by a lot of other unimpressive flops in graded stakes competition. Can't endorse her.

6 - SHAGGY MANE (Don Chatlos, Jr. / Cornelio Velasquez)
CA-bred filly has proven to be a very valuable $12,500 claim, reeling off four of five following the purchase, including the $300,000 Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint before fading in the Humana Distaff last out. Willing to forgive that effort, as it just seems like six furlongs is her maximum distance, and she cuts back to it today. Problem is there is an abundance of speed in this race and Chatlos has admitted that he's willing to go :43 and change to outrun Selvatica early. Not sure that's the smartest strategy on this oval. She's a tough customer, but going to try to beat her on top.

7 - G CITY GAL (Todd Pletcher / Chris Decarlo)
Another speedster in a gassy field, this NY shipper scored under a confident ride in MTH N2X last out, and she certainly developed into a useful little runner last year, actually running third in last year's Azalea BC despite being steadied twice in the lane. Decarlo in for the ride, she's got good figures and gets in pretty light. Just a matter of how far she can lay back.

8 - RIVER'S PRAYER (Paula Capestro / Clinton Potts)
Devon Lane gray comes into this tugging a three-race winning streak, but it wasn't exactly against terrors on the SA and HOL grass, although she did beat Indian Flare, a contender in here, in the G3 Las Cienagas H. She's pretty unproven on dirt though, and she hasn't shown the ability to stalk or sit off the pace. Pass.

9 - TRUE AND TRUE (Wesley Ward / Frank Alvarado)
Bay four-year-old came back off a lengthy break to run third in the $45,000 No Winking locally, a reversal from her strong form at the end of her sophomore season. Other than the layoff, she didn't have much of an excuse, and not sure how much she's going to improve second back, considering that she drilled like she meant it for her return.

10 - MYKINDASAINT (Bubba Cascio / Gerard Melancon)
LA shipper hasn't taken to the grass much, but ran a big one turf-to-dirt two back, scoring by 3 1/4 at 25-1 in the $73,000 Pan Zareta BC at FG. Didn't show much in her last start over this oval, popping and stopping in the Azalea BC. Nevertheless, she's been working well, will have her regular rider, has a barn that's superb off the layoff and will be a huge price. Mykindaplay.

11 - STOLEN PRAYER (Eddie Plesa, Jr. / Manoel Cruz)
Comes into this off the best race of her life, an impressive score by 4 1/2 in the $50,000 Ema Bovary, and if she repeats that effort (1 3/4 TG), she's got a puncher's chance. Wide post isn't ideal though, so Cruz will have to do a lot of maneuvering to give this filly a real shot.

12 - DIXIE DREAMER (Marty Wolfson / Jermaine Bridgmohan)
Should benefit from plenty of pace in the race, and the barn switch to Wolfson (who's hitting at 34% this meet) can only be positive, but she's yet to run a race big enough to suggest she can win this. Wouldn't count her out of the exotics though.

13 - MIRACULOUS MISS (Steve Klesaris / Jose Lezcano)
Dead closer comes in off a layoff of over seven months, but if there's one runner in here who should get a beneficial setup, it's this one, and she's proven the ability to win at six furlongs despite spotting the field double digits. Main issues are the huge field, making navigation potentially difficult in the stretch, and the potential for nasty weather, as her worst run came over a wet track. Still mighty dangerous considering the fractions they're likely to run.

13 - Miraculous Miss
Devastating kick picks 'em all off in the lane if run is clear and track is fast
7 - G City Gal 3RD
Dangerous if able to pick up from year end form
6 - Shaggy Mane 2ND
Cutback to six panels makes her pretty darn scary
3 - Indian Flare
Harbors potential if able to watch duel from afar

[ateamstupid]

Leg E (Race 12): 24TH RUNNING OF THE SMILE SPRINT HANDICAP (GRADE II). $500,000, 3+, 6 FURLONGS.

1 - WEIGELIA (Mike Trombetta / Cornelio Velasquez)
Was starting to think this Safely Kept six-year-old was losing a step, then he busts out with a wire job in the Ponche H. two back, from the 12-hole no less. That effort earned him a -2 TG, besting his previous top of -1, so he's obviously got plenty of pep left in that step. Certainly takes to this course (17/8-2-2) and that can be key in Summit races. Working strongly at DEL for this. Will have to outrun some real quick ones to get to the front in here, so the rail draw isn't optimal, but he stands a longshot chance.

2 - HOW'S YOUR HALO (Brian Prichard / Manoel Cruz)
Speedy colt really jumped up three back to run a huge and narrow second behind Paradise Dancer in the $40,000 Radar Love, but that seems to be the exception rather than the rule, as he does a lot of retreating in most of his races. Was crushed by Mach Ride last out, albeit after contesting a hot pace, but he's made a living running behind some of these, and now he's got two tough shippers to deal with as well. Probably a pace casualty.

3 - PARADISE DANCER (Kirk Ziadie / Jose Lezcano)
CRC veteran has kept his form tremendously since the $40,000 claim by Ziadie, winning a few overnights and running few bad races. Plenty capable of coming off the pace, which should serve him well in this, and he's been putting up some big numbers recently. He earned a -2 1/4 TG for his win over How's Your Halo last fall and earned a 106 BSF for his trouncing of Kopper Kilgoar before that. His last was certainly strong too, although he wasn't facing much. Definitely a threat from off the pace, probably at a fair price.

4 - FABULOUS STRIKE (Todd Beattie / Robby Albarado)
The wild card to this race, this Smart Strike gelding showed serious promise running with some solid sprinters last spring and summer at BEL, but it wasn't until the fall that he really turned it on, starting a string of easy wins and giant figures at MNR. He ran 115, 119 and 118 on the BSF scale and -3 3/4, -6 and -5 1/4 on the TG scale at MNR before trying his luck in the G3 Aristides at CD last out. The result? Another easy win, a 115 BSF and -3 1/2 TG. With that said, he was allowed to walk through the first quarter-mile that day, and the race was over right about then, so we still don't know what he's going to do against a quality field on a pressured pace. Could be the real deal, and probably is, considering that he's been running big races for a long time now, but we'll see today if he's truly the cream of the crop.

5 - KOPPER KILGOAR (Tim Hills / Manny Aguilar)
Notebook gelding has yet to run anything close to competitive with this caliber of field.

6 - MACH RIDE (Steve Standridge / Elvis Trujillo)
Useful sprinter turned into a potential superstar with his last start, a monstrous front-running score in the $50,000 Champali, a race for which he earned a 108 BSF and -2 TG. Guess the blinkers really helped him out, eh? Super thing is that he's proven in the past that he doesn't need to be on the lead to be successful, so he looks like the best alternative to the top two.

7 - SMOKEY STOVER (Greg Gilchrist / Aaron Gryder)
Connections of the fallen Lost in the Fog ship in this white-hot gelding, fresh off his third stakes win in a row, and he draws perfectly to stalk the pace or head out if for some reason there's a lack of pace. Recent figures (113, 105, 111 BSF, -3, -3/4, -3 1/2 TG) make him a clear contender and set up for a nice East/West showdown with Fabulous Strike.

4 - Fabulous Strike
Won't get such an easy time of it against these
7 - Smokey Stover 3RD
Should get the dream trip, hot to the touch
6 - Mach Ride 1ST
New horse in blinkers?
3 - Paradise Dancer 2ND
Old-timer can still throw down with the big boys

EXACTA - $111.60
TRIFECTA - $396.40

[ateamstupid]

Weather and scratches pending:

3,6 / 1,3,4,9 / 2,4,6,8 / 13 / 4,7

2x4x4x1x2 x $2 = $128

EDIT: For some reason, the Pick Five doesn't contain the feature race (The Smile), so that play is rendered useless. Will try to come up with a different play (P3 or P4).

[Bigsmc]

Holy crap Joey. Very nice job breaking it down.

Good luck Bro.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

O-e-y.....money

[ateamstupid]

Small stab at the Pick Four instead.

4,6,8 / 3,4,6,7,13 / 4,7 / 1

3x5x2x1 x $2 = $30.

[Kasept]

Super work O-E-Y.. Now I know why you were irked that the P5 didn't sequence out to the Smile... Good luck the rest of the way...