Thoughts from a Novice Handicapper, Volume 2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

1) Know what wagers you are best at and stick to them. I brought a small amount of money to wager, as husband and I are pretty broke right now, and had lost it all by race 7 because I tried some trifectas. I need to stick to wins and exactas at this point. I'm better at those.

2)Always box your exacta. Because if you don't, that horse that has been an "also-ran" for the first 8 races of his career will choose to step it up and become a "ran."

3)Leave enough money for the last races. After losing what I was willing to lose, I sat out the last three races, with some money still in pocket, because I decided I wasn't going to make a bad day worse. And then watched as the horses I'd mentally boxed for an exacta won in the 8th race, the winner I'd picked for the 9th won (I tossed the Capote horse after the jockey switch) and, most heartbreaking, the exacta I'd picked came in in the 10th race, with the horse that won coming in at 17-1.

4)It is not at all satisfying to think, "I found a 17-1 long shot" when you didn't bet on said 17-1 long shot.

G/R,

All really good responses and insights to your day, or any day, at the track.. A few thoughts..

Re: 1. -- I've always felt that once you become a regular horseplayer that sticking to what has led to your biggest success should be your "meat and potato" wagering strategy.. For me, for years, it was exacta betting. It's not so much about being able to get a handle on the "right horses" as it is about confidence in your decision(s).

Re 2. -- Always box, but box with a weighted approach. If you love a certain horse at a square price and think a bomb could sneak into the exacta, there's no need to have them weighed equally in your wagers. If you love the "1" horse, a 1 (4-1), 2 (3-1), 3 (8-1), 4 (16-1) $2 four horse exacta box at $24 is better apportioned out boxing the 1-2-3-4 for a $1 ($12) and keying the 1 over the 2-3-4 for $4 ($12). Now when your 1 wins and your 2-3-4 come 2nd you've got a total of a $5 exacta. If the 1 comes behind the 2, 3 or 4 you've still got it covered, and if the 2-3-4 somehow hook up you've got a big hit.

There's no reason to spend 12 $2 increments, weighing every combination equally, when you believe the "1" is the most likely winner... Under the box scenario, you've given all 12 combos an 8% chance of coming in when your handicapping suggests to you that there is a far great likelihood than 8% that the 1 wins the race... By weighting the plays, you've apportioned 50% of your race investment on the 1 on top, 25% on the 1 second, and 25% on the 1 out of the exacta with your other horses 1st-2nd...

Re 3. -- Much like weighing exactas, weigh the races. Your budget should be split into "prime plays" (races where you have a TRUE opinion, a good feel) and "action plays" (races where you have a far less certainty of outcome but want action because you're at the track and it's what you're there for..). I've heard 66%-33% splits for "prime-action" budgets, 80-20, etc.. Your call. But by having a certain amount set aside for races you just don't "expect to win", you'll be certain to have money at the end of the day for a prime play that you absolutely "came there" to bet.

Re 4. -- See above.. "Action" budget dough is specifically for those plunges on 17-1 overlays.. Now when you spot something like that, you won't let it run without you because you don't have to worry that if it was a bad hunch it has cut deply into your bankroll. You have a bankroll for this kind of play which gives you the confidence to invest in 17-1 shots. Remember that with a 17-1 paying $36, you can be wrong 17 times, right once and break even... Be right twice and you've doubled your money...

Just a few thoughts about how I've dealt with those same issues developing as a horseplayer...