6/29: BEL (P4); HOL (Carry)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by rainmandon

Steve, in the 4th at Hollywood, you are showing #8 Truckee Lite (5-1 ML) as a value play; and showing #11 Slew Faced (8-1 ML) as the most likely winner at any price. I'm thinking that if SF is the most likely winner and has higher odds than TL, he should be better value than TL. Do you feel that SF will be bet down lower than TL, or that he will be used more in exotics, thus reducing his "exotic value".

I've only been on the site for a few days and have really been enjoying it. GL to all.

Don..

You're right.. The explanation of the 1-2/A-B is 'thumbnail' sketch... I'm making Truckee Lite a single in the sequence, so I kind of have to put him on top.... I suppose the #6 (Surfer Kris) should be the "2." horse with the 11/12 as the exotics players. The three under Truckee seem interchangeable to me a bit...

Pleased to have you here. Welcome...

[ArlJim78]

I've worked through the first half of the Holly card. For what it's worth, in third I've got it 9/3/1 with Gotta Go Gal on the suspect list for the reasons mentioned by others.

In the fourth race, on my figures I've got Surfer Kris as a big standout. Most likely this will be a single for me. I think this horse rolls over this field easily.

Keep up the good work!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

In the fourth race, on my figures I've got Surfer Kris as a big standout. Most likely this will be a single for me. I think this horse rolls over this field easily.

Because of the drop? My only question is why drop from MSW all the way to 25k when you could go to 40 or 50k, that scares me a little. Also going to a completely different distance. Different friends at this level. I am at 6-7-8-9 and can easily be talked out of the 9.....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Because of the drop? My only question is why drop from MSW all the way to 25k when you could go to 40 or 50k, that scares me a little. Also going to a completely different distance. Different friends at this level. I am at 6-7-8-9 and can easily be talked out of the 9.....

yes the drop, but primarily because he is simply faster, and has a good route foundation. the distance is also a bonus imo. the horses he just ran very respectively against, frank the Barber and Vice Admiral are much much better than this field. sometimes its best not to overthink a drop, sometimes its just to get the win and purse and not a sign of a big problem.

[Kasept]

BELMONT: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Kasept

BELMONT: http://internetstuff

so much for my single in the 1st leg of the P6

As expected there's a bunch.....Glad I didn't really dig into this card yet

Steve, R6 - now that we don't have True Cause as part of that Godolphin entry, do you feel as strongly about this selection on top w/ Minefield?
Trainer stats are a relatively small sample with obvious quality stock, but 55% of 11 off the +180 days and 32% first time with is hard to ignore

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Steve, R6 - now that we don't have True Cause as part of that Godolphin entry, do you feel as strongly about this selection on top w/ Minefield?

For purposes of the P4, yes. Prefer to isolate there and fish elsewhere for prices including the nightcap. If you don't accept the entry in the 6th, then it gets wacky needing 2-3 to cover.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yes the drop, but primarily because he is simply faster, and has a good route foundation. the distance is also a bonus imo. the horses he just ran very respectively against, frank the Barber and Vice Admiral are much much better than this field. sometimes its best not to overthink a drop, sometimes its just to get the win and purse and not a sign of a big problem.

I agree with Jim. Surfer is a single in the pk6, and I am adding the 5,10,12 at big odds in the pk4. I am not a beliver in Truckee on top but he is a plodder who should hit the board. With Paula owning and traing, and purchasing this one for $17k, I think it is in for the win. Plus it was 55-1 on the board last out, so while it has not run too bad it is obvious the public has been looking for a drop. That does influence sometimes.

[jms62]

TGIF ... Weekend mode starts with the late Pick-4

1,2,5,9/5,6/2,5,7,1,4,9/1,8==>$96.00
5,9/5/2,9/1,2,5,6,8,9======>$24.00
5,9/3,4,7/1,2,9/8,1========>$36.00
2/3,4,5,6,7/2,1,7,8/1,8=====>$40.00
======
196.00

Good Luck All

PS...

Great day yesterday Steveo...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

I agree with Jim. Surfer is a single in the pk6, and I am adding the 5,10,12 at big odds in the pk4. I am not a beliver in Truckee on top but he is a plodder who should hit the board. With Paula owning and traing, and purchasing this one for $17k, I think it is in for the win. Plus it was 55-1 on the board last out, so while it has not run too bad it is obvious the public has been looking for a drop. That does influence sometimes.

I am hoping to get all nuts on this thing tonight, but it entails hitting the early DD without Noble Court, I like Cerin's horse a little. 1,5/1 DD

[Rootdog1]

Well, good luck.....I am not crazy about that play but I will cheer you home Scavs as I want you to come hard at the 6 tonight.

[-BT-]

Steve,

maybe i'll bring you some luck tonight b/c there is no way Jimmie Pong gets anywhere on my tickets. The reason why i say it will bring you luck is b/c i've been standing on an iceberg the last month or so. This horse is a consistent hanger, cost me a nice PK4 last out and though it looked like he was gonna get by Lil Nugget in the previous race he just hung on and held the 2nd place spot.

gl all

-bt-

[Rootdog1]

the 11 is the sleeper, I'm telling ya....

[Rootdog1]

Got 4 going in on the pk6

3)1,9,11
4)6
5)1,4,7
6)1,2,5,9,11
7)3,8
8)4,9,14
$540

pk4's
1)2,3
2)1,7
3)1,9,11,4
4)5,6,10,12
$48

5)1,4,7
6)1,2,11
7)8
8)4,6,8,9,14
$45


Good Luck ALL

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

the 11 is the sleeper, I'm telling ya....

Nice call.

Blew my pk4 in 2nd, but used him to start pk3. Wishing I went deeper in 3rd leg now... / 6,8,14 / 7.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I've worked through the first half of the Holly card. For what it's worth, in third I've got it 9/3/1 with Gotta Go Gal on the suspect list for the reasons mentioned by others.

In the fourth race, on my figures I've got Surfer Kris as a big standout. Most likely this will be a single for me. I think this horse rolls over this field easily.

the 5f in the 3rd scares me a bit....all of the chalk will be stalking or closing....do you think any other prices look interesting? Like the 11 which adds blinkers back and continues to drop?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

the 5f in the 3rd scares me a bit....all of the chalk will be stalking or closing....do you think any other prices look interesting? Like the 11 which adds blinkers back and continues to drop?

i'm can't find anything really. the 11 adding blinkers? well they tried that before, i'm not buying it. to me it looks like they in desparation mode and will try anything, dropping, blinkers, etc. don't think it will matter.

I would be shocked if the winner wasn't either the 9 or 3, perhaps the 1.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i'm can't find anything really. the 11 adding blinkers? well they tried that before, i'm not buying it. to me it looks like they in desparation mode and will try anything, dropping, blinkers, etc. don't think it will matter.

I would be shocked if the winner wasn't either the 9 or 3, perhaps the 1.

look at the 4, rocketship and getting Lasix BACK finally

[Rootdog1]

yes scavs, just added the 4 to my pk4...specially since the speed ball 7 Melodious has scratched......