CD: Foster, N. Dancer & Jeff Cup Fields

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'll go with jonesboro, some local flavor....

whewwwwww.........i will go with some out-of-town flavor....

how can you like Jonesboro in a race loaded with speed? I just want to make sure I'm not missing something.

[SentToStud]

I'm betting against D Stripes based on the jump along with thinking he's got to pass three pretty good G2 winners. I can't see anyone other than Master C. Magna or Wanderin Boy winning. I'm using those three with a bump on Wanderin Boy. I think he's going to sit right off the rabbit and although he probably won't be setting the pace, I think he controls it. He's also likely to be a bit underbet in here with the other percieved speed. I don't think Flashy Bull or Jonesboro get a sniff of the front here. Looks like a real good race and a very nice card and pick-4. good luck.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I'm betting against D Stripes based on the jump along with thinking he's got to pass three pretty good G2 winners. I can't see anyone other than Master C. Magna or Wanderin Boy winning. I'm using those three with a bump on Wanderin Boy. I think he's going to sit right off the rabbit and although he probably won't be setting the pace, I think he controls it. He's also likely to be a bit underbet in here with the other percieved speed. I don't think Flashy Bull or Jonesboro get a sniff of the front here. Looks like a real good race and a very nice card and pick-4. good luck.

I disagree with you regarding Wanderin Boy's chances to sit off of a fast pace and prevail.
In his last twelve races Wanderin Boy has been on the lead at the first two calls in nine of them. He has finished in the money in all nine of those races with five wins. The three times he was not in the lead at the first or second call, he finished sixth twice and seventh once, with BSFs at least five points below his other efforts. In my opinion he is almost the classic definition of a "need-the-lead" horse. If the track is dry I think he gets cooked here by the rabbit (and all the other speed in the race) and I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him finish off the board.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I disagree with you regarding Wanderin Boy's chances to sit off of a fast pace and prevail.
In his last twelve races Wanderin Boy has been on the lead at the first two calls in nine of them. He has finished in the money in all nine of those races with five wins. The three times he was not in the lead at the first or second call, he finished sixth twice and seventh once, with BSFs at least five points below his other efforts. In my opinion he is almost the classic definition of a "need-the-lead" horse. If the track is dry I think he gets cooked here by the rabbit (and all the other speed in the race) and I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him finish off the board.

Fair enough, that's what makes it interesting. Looking back at his races in '07 and '06 in 2-turn races among the losses were races won by Bernardini, Invasor (twice) and Premium Tap. There is no such quality in this race and his Clark was so awful that it's a toss for me.

Also, I didn't mean to imply that he's got to sit off the pace. I think he will be where Nakitani wants him and that's most likely to be sitting outside , just off of Mr U. If WB had drawn inside, I wouldn't like him as much. Last, I'll be using a couple others as I noted.

As an aside, who do like on top?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Fair enough, that's what makes it interesting. Looking back at his races in '07 and '06 in 2-turn races among the losses were races won by Bernardini, Invasor (twice) and Premium Tap. There is no such quality in this race and his Clark was so awful that it's a toss for me.

Also, I didn't mean to imply that he's got to sit off the pace. I think he will be where Nakitani wants him and that's most likely to be sitting outside , just off of Mr U. If WB had drawn inside, I wouldn't like him as much. Last, I'll be using a couple others as I noted.

As an aside, who do like on top?

I like Diamond Stripes the best.....although the race is certainly wide open.
Wanderin Boy seems to me like a horse whose style just won't work in this spot. Look at the four races in the last two years that he ran over a 106. Those are also the only four races in which he has been over a length clear of the field at the first call. It has happened every time. If he is over a length clear of the field....he runs a 106 or better. If he isn't....he doesn't.
Wanderin Boy has certainly been facing tough competition (especially compared to a horse like Diamond Stripes) but when he doesn't get his way on the front end - like in the Whitney and the Clark - it isn't just the Invasors and Premium Taps that run by him. He finished sixth in both of those races.
Either way, it should be an interesting race.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by JDank34

whewwwwww.........i will go with some out-of-town flavor....

how can you like Jonesboro in a race loaded with speed? I just want to make sure I'm not missing something.

I'll bet that Borel takes back and tries the rail skimming trip.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by JDank34

whewwwwww.........i will go with some out-of-town flavor....

how can you like Jonesboro in a race loaded with speed? I just want to make sure I'm not missing something.

your own pick perhaps??

just don't see anyone with a clear shot, i think any of them could win it....and lately, the foster has produced some high price winners. who knows?

besides, i thought it would be boring to go with wanderin boy...

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm confused.....because there were a couple longshot winners of the Foster that somehow increases the chances of the longshots in this year's race?

That makes a lot of sense.

[Zaf]

Me thinks Wanderin Boy has a good shot here.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Me thinks Wanderin Boy has a good shot here.

Me thinks not!

[JDank34]

I am not a Kenny McPeek fan, BUT Loose Leaf absolutely freaked last time at CD in his first true route race over conventional dirt. I like him at a price over the typewriter horse Chelokee.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Me thinks Wanderin Boy has a good shot here.

The other reason that I don't particularly like Wanderin Boy here is that betting Zito's horses in graded stakes races and flushing your money down the toilet have yielded very similar results recently. (101 .05 $0.38)
But the MAIN reason remains the likely pace scenario.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm confused.....because there were a couple longshot winners of the Foster that somehow increases the chances of the longshots in this year's race?

That makes a lot of sense.

You don't have one? It's a must for handicapping.

[the_fat_man]

Diamond Stripes

Loose Leaf

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm confused.....because there were a couple longshot winners of the Foster that somehow increases the chances of the longshots in this year's race?

That makes a lot of sense.

no

but i don't see anyone in here that stands head and shoulders above the rest, and don't see a need in picking a fave. that would be kind of stating the obvious, wouldn't it? gee, i think master command will win...what's the point?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no

but i don't see anyone in here that stands head and shoulders above the rest, and don't see a need in picking a fave. that would be kind of stating the obvious, wouldn't it? gee, i think master command will win...what's the point?

It's about analyzing races....and saying longshots have won this race in the past somehow elevates the chances of longshots in today's race defies logic.

A reasonable analysis, for instance, of this race would be something like....

Diamond Stripes has shown enormous potential in all of his races, particularly in the Pegasus, when he overcame very real trouble to beat a decent field in a reasonably fast time. This is his first major test against proven horses but if one horse emerges out of this race to make a major impact in big races this year he appears to be the logical choice.

Master Command has certainly done nothing wrong this year but his record may be slightly deceiving. He had very soft trips, in soft pace races ( which won't be the case today ), against markedly softer competition. When faced with more severe pace scenerios, and more genuine horses, he has not performed particularly well in the past.

Magna Graduate took advantage of a very strong pace last time, in a race where the only real competition failed to come out of the gate, and is another who has not performed well, at least recently, under anything but the best of circumstances.

Wanderin Boy has clearly run a number of very fast races, and if allowed to make the lead, could be very dangerous even if setting a relatively fast pace. However, if denied the lead, which may well be the case if Mr. Umphrey stays in the race, he is unlikely to deliver his peak performance.

Flashy Bull, the only other actual contender in this race, has clearly improved, but was he game in holding off Hesanoldsalt or does Hesanoldsalt have trouble winning stretch duels? Certainly Flashy Bull was not flattered by the thrashing Papi Chullo gave Hesanoldsalt last week but it is also quite possible that under his new connections Papi Chullo may be a factor in major races later this year. This horse is a bit of a wildcard, in that he always had some potential, running credible races early in his career and now finally beginning to deliver, and he may have as more upside than most here, save perhaps Diamond Stripes.

These are the merits and possible drawbacks to the contenders in this race. I think Diamond Stripes is the likeliest winner, Wanderin Boy is dangerous if Mr. Umphrey scratches, and Flashy Bull may be possible, and is a use in multi-race bets if, like me, you do not like either Pletcher entrant.

[Pedigree Ann]

While much of this analysis is dead on, I don't see how that makes Diamond Stripes ' the likeliest winner.' A possible winner, yes, if he is capable of stepping up a few notches and he may be, given how lightly raced he is. But likeliest? I've seen too many of this sort (Mayan King, anybody?) to fall into that trap.

In comparing Hesanoldsalt form, do please recall the 1-turn 9f vs. 2-turn 9f factor. Papi Chullo LOVES Belmont's 1-turn 8f+ config; he is 3/3 there. The fact that he beat Hesanoldsalt by many does not detract from 'oldsalt's TWO-turn form. The dynamics of the races are very different.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

While much of this analysis is dead on, I don't see how that makes Diamond Stripes ' the likeliest winner.' A possible winner, yes, if he is capable of stepping up a few notches and he may be, given how lightly raced he is. But likeliest? I've seen too many of this sort (Mayan King, anybody?) to fall into that trap.

In comparing Hesanoldsalt form, do please recall the 1-turn 9f vs. 2-turn 9f factor. Papi Chullo LOVES Belmont's 1-turn 8f+ config; he is 3/3 there. The fact that he beat Hesanoldsalt by many does not detract from 'oldsalt's TWO-turn form. The dynamics of the races are very different.

Do you bet?

Hesanoldsalt had a very similar trip in both of his last two races and Papi Chullos's recent improvement has more to do with finally getting with a competent training outfit instead of having an owner act as a trainer than your unqualified one-turn/two-turn mumbo jumbo.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's about analyzing races....and saying longshots have won this race in the past somehow elevates the chances of longshots in today's race defies logic.

A reasonable analysis, for instance, of this race would be something like....

Diamond Stripes has shown enormous potential in all of his races, particularly in the Pegasus, when he overcame very real trouble to beat a decent field in a reasonably fast time. This is his first major test against proven horses but if one horse emerges out of this race to make a major impact in big races this year he appears to be the logical choice.

Master Command has certainly done nothing wrong this year but his record may be slightly deceiving. He had very soft trips, in soft pace races ( which won't be the case today ), against markedly softer competition. When faced with more severe pace scenerios, and more genuine horses, he has not performed particularly well in the past.

Magna Graduate took advantage of a very strong pace last time, in a race where the only real competition failed to come out of the gate, and is another who has not performed well, at least recently, under anything but the best of circumstances.

Wanderin Boy has clearly run a number of very fast races, and if allowed to make the lead, could be very dangerous even if setting a relatively fast pace. However, if denied the lead, which may well be the case if Mr. Umphrey stays in the race, he is unlikely to deliver his peak performance.

Flashy Bull, the only other actual contender in this race, has clearly improved, but was he game in holding off Hesanoldsalt or does Hesanoldsalt have trouble winning stretch duels? Certainly Flashy Bull was not flattered by the thrashing Papi Chullo gave Hesanoldsalt last week but it is also quite possible that under his new connections Papi Chullo may be a factor in major races later this year. This horse is a bit of a wildcard, in that he always had some potential, running credible races early in his career and now finally beginning to deliver, and he may have as more upside than most here, save perhaps Diamond Stripes.

These are the merits and possible drawbacks to the contenders in this race. I think Diamond Stripes is the likeliest winner, Wanderin Boy is dangerous if Mr. Umphrey scratches, and Flashy Bull may be possible, and is a use in multi-race bets if, like me, you do not like either Pletcher entrant.

You forgot the fact that no horse whose name started with the letter "M" has won the Foster in the last 22 years. Every true handicapper knows that is the REAL reason Master Command and Magna Graduate can't win. Don't you know your Foster angles?
Also Danzig, I don't mean to pile on, but the fact that longshots have won in recent years is not only irrelevant (as btw pointed out), but isn't it also just erroneous? Am I crazy or did St. Liam win this race just two years ago? I don't remember him being a big longshot.