looking back

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The wide trips dont matter when you run the leader runs the first 6f in 1:15.37 and the mile in 1:40... the stumble was negated by the incredibly slow pace. It allowed her to settle and be perfectly comfortable. A stumle like that in the Derby would have been lights out, and we may never have seen this filly run against the males again.

I have no idea why you would think this? Ground loss is ground loss regardless of pace. Running further than your rivals is a disadvantage period. The stumbling instance may be negated by a slower pace because she did not have to work hard to catch up. But simple physics says that 4 wide is 4 wide no matter the speed you are doing it at.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

But simple physics says that 4 wide is 4 wide no matter the speed you are doing it at.

Physics may say that...however, ground loss is most certainly more significant in some situations than others.

Let's say you have a 12 horse field, with a very short run to the first turn. If a horse gets hung up four-to-five wide, while up on a fast early pace....that horse is almost certainly going to ran FAR below his best form.

I've seen horses breaking from those very difficult posts, in much slower paced races, get hung up through the first turn...and still run to their best form.

I know a lot of other very capable trip handicappers (BTW would agree with me on this) feel the same. When the pace is very slow, I actually don't mind it that much if the runner I bet is caught out in the clear.

[ArlJim78]

Adding a hot pace and a wide post are two other important variables that effect the outcome. But like Cannon said the ground loss is the same. Its just that in the scenario you've described those other factors exacerbate the effect on the overall performance.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Adding a hot pace and a wide post are two other important variables that effect the outcome. But like Cannon said the ground loss is the same. Its just that in the scenario you've described those other factors exacerbate the effect on the overall performance.

That's very true.

However, just from watching so many races for so long, If they are flying up front...and my horse is a closer I'd strongly prefer he'd be inside the other closer or closers, and hopefully would not be hindered by the tiring horses in front of him...and either get a dream run up the rail...or be able to get off the rail and get the kind of "inside-out" trip you like.

If the pace is slow--they are probably up against it no matter where they are placed...but I see horses positioned outside often run as good or better than horses positioned inside of them.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Physics may say that...however, ground loss is most certainly more significant in some situations than others.

Let's say you have a 12 horse field, with a very short run to the first turn. If a horse gets hung up four-to-five wide, while up on a fast early pace....that horse is almost certainly going to ran FAR below his best form.

I've seen horses breaking from those very difficult posts, in much slower paced races, get hung up through the first turn...and still run to their best form.

I know a lot of other very capable trip handicappers (BTW would agree with me on this) feel the same. When the pace is very slow, I actually don't mind it that much if the runner I bet is caught out in the clear.

explain grass racing

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

explain grass racing

I obviously agree with your point in an earlier posts about biases.

As for grass races...I still think in those turf races, the faster the pace is early, the more ground you want to save through the first turn. Fast paced turf races are often won by horses who make "inside-out" moves. Having a fairly good tactical spot while saving some ground around the first turn, and swooping around the tiring horses who are backing up inside of them.

John Velazquez has always had dazzling ROI stats in turf races throughout his career...and he rarely makes a great effort to save ground in most turf races...he's the one rider I'd actually prefer (off of stats) in a slow paced turf races. Ramon Dominguez makes a great effort to save ground, and is very skilled at riding the inside...he's also always had great ROI numbers on turf...and would be my pick for best rider in fast paced turf races.

[MisterB]

The placement of the rail has allot to do with the start, and the outcome. Some courses are even on a different level from inside to outside. So called the groove, or the hump.