Tiago derby gallop out

10 pnt move up · #1 06-07-2007, 09:36 AM

Its overblow I can tell you that,

I will share what Mike told me after the race and that was he was never out of horse at any point but the horse just did not want to mix it up in the traffic, the horse wants to be clear of other horses unlike street sense who seems to just accelerate through traffic. The gallop out was just a illusion of other horses on respirators and the other being pulled up. If he wins its because he has matured and improves to make up that 7-8 beyer points he is shy of.

Scav · #2 06-07-2007, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Its overblow I can tell you that,

I will share what Mike told me after the race and that was he was never out of horse at any point but the horse just did not want to mix it up in the traffic, the horse wants to be clear of other horses unlike street sense who seems to just accelerate through traffic. The gallop out was just a illusion of other horses on respirators and the other being pulled up. If he wins its because he has matured and improves to make up that 7-8 beyer points he is shy of.

1) Mike who

2) TG wise, he needs to improve about 4 points, or 10 lengths, into Curlin, now if Curlin regresses and Tiago moves forward, like he should, then he has a shot

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 06-07-2007, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Mike who

Tyson

Scav · #4 06-07-2007, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Tyson

Spinks?
Johnson?
Jordan?

The Indomitable DrugS · #5 06-07-2007, 09:49 AM

Can I place a bet on Smith.....

Just a hunch

10 pnt move up · #6 06-07-2007, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Can I place a bet on Smith.....

Just a hunch

they dont call you the Indomitable for nothing.......

Yes, Smith, sorry thought it was implied.

Scav · #7 06-07-2007, 10:27 AM

I'm an idiot. My lack of reading skills, or more so reading too fast, didn't process it correctly.

2 Dollar Bill · #8 06-07-2007, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Tyson

Chicken ?

10 pnt move up · #9 06-07-2007, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

2) TG wise, he needs to improve about 4 points, or 10 lengths, into Curlin, now if Curlin regresses and Tiago moves forward, like he should, then he has a shot

But he does not have to be right according to TG, Curlin almost assuredly will "Bounce" using their logic back to a slower number, same with Hard Spun, Tiago should only have to improve slightly using TG. It would not surprise me if he is their pick given the Bounce logic?

Scav · #10 06-07-2007, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

But he does not have to be right according to TG, Curlin almost assuredly will "Bounce" using their logic back to a slower number, same with Hard Spun, Tiago should only have to improve slightly using TG. It would not surprise me if he is their pick given the Bounce logic?

He is an 'exotic' use according to TG.

I think Curlin has to move back and both Slew's Tizzy and Tiago are horses that are going to move forward. How forward, I don't know, but I think the value is there on them to invest in the notion of one of them freaking....

SundayStar · #11 06-07-2007, 10:53 AM

to me, the "gallop out" is one of the most overrated handicapping angles. who cares what they do after the race is over?

but............ i do like tiago to hit the board

Bobby Fischer · #12 06-07-2007, 10:54 AM

After three strides past the wire I wouldn't get very hyped about what happens other than to view it as a positive sign that the horse wasn't falling apart.

whodey17 · #13 06-07-2007, 10:59 AM

I agree that gallop outs are over analyzed unless it is during a workout. But Curlin should improve off of his Preakness race. I do not care what the TG people say, Curlin will run better in the Belmont than he did in the Preakness. Tiago is my pick to round out the trifecta. I like Rags to get 2nd. More than likely, I will key Curlin on top with Rags and Tiago with all.

Derby73 · #14 06-07-2007, 11:10 AM

I can't understand why anyone thinks Tiago can win this race; well, outside of the fact that it's a horse race and anything can happen.

In his best race, Tiago ran 1 1/8 in 1:49 2/5. Assuming he can run another 3/8 in the time he ran the last 1/8 in that race, he runs a mile and half in 2:29 and a fraction. Using the same approach, Slew's Tizzy, who hasn't gone more than 1 1/16 doesn't look much better.

OTOH, Curlin can slow down in the last 5/16 versus his Preakness time and do 2:26 or close to it.

I know that's a simple analysis and I'm no expert, but I don't understand folks being excited about any horse's chances of beating Curlin with the exception of Hard Spun, and that's mild excitement. I will probably throw Prado in because of recurring Birdstone nightmares.

For what it's worth, Jay Cronley's picks on espn.com:

Curlin
Hard Spun
CP West
imawildandcrazyguy

Punch line from an old 'priest at the race track' joke: "Son, don't you know the difference between blessing a horse and giving it its last rites?"

SniperSB23 · #15 06-07-2007, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He is an 'exotic' use according to TG.

I think Curlin has to move back and both Slew's Tizzy and Tiago are horses that are going to move forward. How forward, I don't know, but I think the value is there on them to invest in the notion of one of them freaking....

There is no way Slew's Tizzy moves forward here at 12 furlongs. This horse has started fast and decelerated the whole way in each of his past two races. Not the running style for the Belmont.

Cajungator26 · #16 06-07-2007, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

There is no way Slew's Tizzy moves forward here at 12 furlongs. This horse has started fast and decelerated the whole way in each of his past two races. Not the running style for the Belmont.

This picture is worth a thousand words. Can we say full of steam?

rocknrowl · #17 06-07-2007, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Its overblow I can tell you that,

I will share what Mike told me after the race and that was he was never out of horse at any point but the horse just did not want to mix it up in the traffic, the horse wants to be clear of other horses unlike street sense who seems to just accelerate through traffic. The gallop out was just a illusion of other horses on respirators and the other being pulled up. If he wins its because he has matured and improves to make up that 7-8 beyer points he is shy of.

That quote from Mike Smith leads me to believe he has a great chance to at least hit the board in the Belmont. The field is much smaller so he shouldn't have to mix it up with any other horses in traffic and it sounds like the distance should be no problem for him.