My Belmont Analysis

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

Right.....I don't.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right.....I don't.

So if you were to liken this to humans and sports, a monster effort where an athlete is just drained (like LeBron in Game 5, I know you don't watch sports but others will know what I am talking about) and then the next game he comes out flat, no creedance to that?

I really think people over use the word bounce and regress, this I agree with, but I am a firm believer that not given ample time, a horse off this effort will not reproduce that peak effort, which i think is needed to win races like this one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think for the most part there is a very answerable reason why horses run well and why they run poorly. I prefer to use logic.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think for the most part there is a very answerable reason why horses run well and why they run poorly. I prefer to use logic.

Agree, but lets say that Saturday that Curlin gets a perfect trip and just doesn't fire, wouldn't an arguable conculsion be that 3 efforts in 7 weeks has taken a toll, thus regressing due to tiredness

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Agree, but lets say that Saturday that Curlin gets a perfect trip and just doesn't fire, wouldn't an arguable conculsion be that 3 efforts in 7 weeks has taken a toll, thus regressing due to tiredness

We'll have that discussion after that improbable event occurs.

[justindew]

I love how my posts always seem to turn into a debate between two other posters, often having nothing to do with my original post.

Do I get extra points for that?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We'll have that discussion after that improbable event occurs.

How improbable?

A number por favor?

Originally Posted by Scav

Agree, but lets say that Saturday that Curlin gets a perfect trip and just doesn't fire, wouldn't an arguable conculsion be that 3 efforts in 7 weeks has taken a toll, thus regressing due to tiredness

There is the possibility of this horse actually improving imo. He was a bit behind to begin with, and he might have actually become physically more mature. This is a possibility, I dont care about what sheets say.

So:
1. Get better (not mentioned)
2. Same Curlin
3. Tired, regression

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Scav

So if you were to liken this to humans and sports, a monster effort where an athlete is just drained (like LeBron in Game 5, I know you don't watch sports but others will know what I am talking about) and then the next game he comes out flat, no creedance to that?

I really think people over use the word bounce and regress, this I agree with, but I am a firm believer that not given ample time, a horse off this effort will not reproduce that peak effort, which i think is needed to win races like this one.

I don't think it is fair to compare the two scenarios. In his "monster effort" the defense simply did not double team him and Lebron went unmolested to the basket time and time again. In Lebron's "bounce" game he was double/triple teamed from the opening tip. The defense adjusted, and he had a good ball handling game with some nice assists - just not gaudy numbers. ( they won )...their is no defense in horse racing, unless you call race dynamics defense.

[Mortimer]

Hey, it’s all about value, right?
--------------------

Yes.



But only when it makes some sense.

I'm going to have you darted...you're too dangerous to nimrods.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Hey, it’s all about value, right?
--------------------

Yes.



But only when it makes some sense.

I'm going to have you darted...you're too dangerous to nimrods.

Turn on the light. Pull up your pants. Back away from the computer. Open a book.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Turn on the light. Pull up your pants. Back away from the computer. Open a book.

Go fucl< yourself.