My Belmont Analysis

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I simply can't see Curlin and Hard Spun both missing the trifecta....

That would be shocking to say the least.

I didn't take it to mean that it was his prediction for the trifecta. Afterall, he did say about Curlin, "If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress."
I took his 1,2,3 to be what he thought were the top three betting options in the race. While I don't know that I agree with him, it is a bit different than boldly predicting a Curlin-less trifecta.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I didn't take it to mean that it was his prediction for the trifecta. Afterall, he did say about Curlin, "If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress."
I took his 1,2,3 to be what he thought were the top three betting options in the race. While I don't know that I agree with him, it is a bit different than boldly predicting a Curlin-less trifecta.

This is not my prediction, but instead it is how I will bet the race. I may play Rags to win if she climbs to 5-1. Otherwise, I will use her on top (no pun intended) of CP West and Tiago, and hope for the best. If my life depended on me picking the winner, obviously I would take Curlin.

[Scav]

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

If he isn't....

Who is?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

[Scav]

Maybe I worded it wrong, but I really don't think he wins, but I have zero idea who will win, but I just don't think he does it....I fully expect a dull effort from him, maybe a one paced 3rd.

I might consider a win wager on Tiago, even though I can't stand Smith, how much trouble can he get in on a closer in a 7 horse race.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

Then bet him.

Im not at 4/5.

Whoops.

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.


I need to read before I type.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Most over and misused term in handicapping. Where is the value when the ticket is a loser. I can see taking a chance with yout $8 tri wheel but do you really think it will win?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over and misused term in handicapping. Where is the value when the ticket is a loser. I can see taking a chance with yout $8 tri wheel but do you really think it will win?

You are bound to have losing tickets in this game, it is minimizing the big ones and ultizing opportunities like this one, where there is a short priced favorite who I think has very little chance to finish 2nd, let alone win.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Come to the dark side Scavs...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

This is not my prediction, but instead it is how I will bet the race. I may play Rags to win if she climbs to 5-1. Otherwise, I will use her on top (no pun intended) of CP West and Tiago, and hope for the best. If my life depended on me picking the winner, obviously I would take Curlin.

Oh.....well in that case I have to go from defending you, to questioning your sanity.
You think Curlin is the most likely winner.....and you are going to bet exactas and trifectas.......and not use him at all? That makes no sense to me whatsoever. I think Curlin might be a bit vulnerable, but I would be SHOCKED if he doesn't hit the board here.
If you like the three you mentioned, why not take a shot at using them on top of the horse you consider the most likely winner?

[slotdirt]

Wanderin Boy won the Alysheba, which I believe is ungraded. Semantics, of course.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Wanderin Boy won the Alysheba, which I believe is ungraded. Semantics, of course.

'Twas graded for the first time this year.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Oh.....well in that case I have to go from defending you, to questioning your sanity.
You think Curlin is the most likely winner.....and you are going to bet exactas and trifectas.......and not use him at all? That makes no sense to me whatsoever. I think Curlin might be a bit vulnerable, but I would be SHOCKED if he doesn't hit the board here.
If you like the three you mentioned, why not take a shot at using them on top of the horse you consider the most likely winner?

For one, I don't play trifectas. I am a win bettor, and I also play Pick 3s and Pick 4s. Occasionally, I play exactas. My goal in all races, especailly races where the pools are inflated, is to find value and cash a big ticket. I like to bet a little to try and win a lot. If Curlin wins, I don't see any of the exotics paying much. That, combined with my opinion that he MIGHT regress, dictates that I leave him off my tickets. However, I like your idea of playing my two "prices", Tiago and CP West, over Curlin. I may end up doing that.

The one strong opinion that I have is that Rags To Riches has a legit chance to win. So I'm trying to come up with a way to make a respectable score off of that opinion. Playing her over Curlin is not worth it, in my opinion.

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

For one, I don't play trifectas. I am a win bettor, and I also play Pick 3s and Pick 4s. Occasionally, I play exactas. My goal in all races, especailly races where the pools are inflated, is to find value and cash a big ticket. I like to bet a little to try and win a lot. If Curlin wins, I don't see any of the exotics paying much. That, combined with my opinion that he MIGHT regress, dictates that I leave him off my tickets. However, I like your idea of playing my two "prices", Tiago and CP West, over Curlin. I may end up doing that.

The one strong opinion that I have is that Rags To Riches has a legit chance to win. So I'm trying to come up with a way to make a respectable score off of that opinion. Playing her over Curlin is not worth it, in my opinion.

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

I agree with you completely on that one. I really like her chances.

[tector]

I think R2R is going to be the second betting choice (or possibly very close to it), and I just don't see the value there. Any other day, there is not much chance I'm going to chase the exacta in a 7 horse field that requires me to punch the heavy favorite over the second betting choice. I am not going to change that just because the race is called "The Belmont".

Given the freakish field size, and the price on the favorites, the Derby offers all kinds of betting opportunities not present in most races. The same is often not true in the Preakness, and it is almost never true in the Belmont. From a betting perspective, the Belmont is JAR (just another race).

And perhaps I'm dreaming, but I just have the sense that Pletcher's record with calling "audibles" leaves something to be desired--and that is how I perceive this move.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

I was worried you were going to leave him off completely.

I think what may be being misunderstood is that just because a horse is the " most likely winner " ( every race has one ) doesn't mean you ( or one ) is betting that horse. The likeliest winner might be 30% to win ( not to say that is easily definable ) but is therefore worth betting against at 8:5 or less. However, it is important as a handicapper, and especially as one who handicaps publicly, to both understand and define the most likely winner. Many races effectively go through one horse. However, how the player deals with that horse will decide how well he ( or she ) does betting said race.

When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "

I feel like it's more confusing than irresponsible. Maybe that actaully makes it irresponsible. I have found that I need to go a step or two beyond a normal explanation when not using a big favorite. Some people don't seem to understand the idea of seeking value elsewhere, especially in big races. Of course, most serious racing fans understand completely.