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#1
06-06-2007, 10:09 PM
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I just thought it was a funny line.
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#2
06-06-2007, 10:26 PM
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Other than what seems to me like a little bit too much love for CP West....that sounds pretty good to me.
If Zito and Prado get that one across the line first, it would be a MUCH bigger shocker to me than Birdstone was.
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#3
06-06-2007, 10:33 PM
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wrote this for Metro Philadelphia newspaper.... -------------------------------------------------------- 1. Imawildandcrazyguy- It’s a common misconception that a come-from-the-clouds running style, like he has, is beneficial here in the longest Triple Crown race. He’s just not in the same class as many of these. 2. Tiago- While he probably has a quicker turn of foot than his full-brother, Derby winner Giacomo, he is going to have to run down some very talented horses late if he is to find the winner’s circle. Although that’s unlikely to happen, a 3rd place effort is not out of the question. 3. Curlin- I was wrong when I said he wouldn’t fire in the Derby. I was wrong when I said he needed a rest before the Preakness. Clearly, this is a very talented racehorse. If he doesn’t regress, he wins. And I’m tired of predicting that he will regress. But at odds-on, it’s your call, and a tough way to make a buck. 4. CP West- This was my Preakness long shot pick, and he looked like a winner with about ½ mile to go. Then he stopped running. If he takes another step forward, a top-3 finish is within reach. It will have to be a big step, although you do get Nick Zito and Edgar Prado in your corner. Remember Birdstone? 5. Slew’s Tizzy- This guy is about 3 lengths better than a stablemate of Curlin’s named Forty Grams. That makes Slew’s Tizzy about 12 lengths worse than Curlin. 6. Hard Spun- I doubt he would have won, but an ill-timed move in the Preakness certainly did not help his chances, and he was only beaten by 4 lengths. That being said, I think others in here are more likely to take the step forward needed to beat Curlin. 7. Rags to Riches- I would love nothing more than to see this chick crush the boys. Her half-brother, Jazil, won this race last year. I like her chances, but at 3-1, I don’t see a whole lot of value. Still, in my opinion, she’s the second most likely winner if Curlin fires. And if he doesn’t…... I have yet to cash a ticket in the Triple Crown this year, as my top picks, Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Derby and Street Sense in the Preakness, finished 10th and 2nd, respectively. In an effort to turn a profit for the series, I’m going to hope (not predict) against hope that Curlin ran his best race in the Preakness, and I will leave him off my exacta tickets. Same with Hard Spun. While the odds of both failing to crack the top two spots in the race are not great, a case can be made for others being better on this day. Hey, it’s all about value, right? 1. Rags To Riches 2. CP West 3. Tiago --------------------- Crinkle Trash can
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#4
06-06-2007, 10:38 PM
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I don't think anyone can assume a lightly raced horse like Tiago can't win. He might very well lose by a ton, by he hasn't raced enough to give a true indication of his ability.
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#5
06-06-2007, 11:59 PM
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Quote:
tiago is dreadful. if tiago wins, i will let drugS tell me his theories about street sense for 12 hours a day for a full year.
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#6
06-07-2007, 01:16 AM
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Quote:
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#7
06-07-2007, 06:06 AM
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you guys can't stop discussing the bounce theory, can ya?
Seriously, might it be fair to say that this "theory" comes from analyzing thousands of races, and time after time seeing horses coming off big efforts running worse in their next start? Not every time, certainly, but a large enough percentage of the time to feel the need to create a theory about it. The beauty of the bounce theory is you don't need a concrete reason why it may happen, you just need it to happen, and there can be any number of "logical" reasons for a horse to run poorly. The important thing is to predict it, then bet accordingly. You can predict it due to a horse running a big top fig in his last race, or due to logical reasons such as an anticipated speed duel on the front, etc.. Now Curlin has, from a fig standpoint, done something very few horses have ever done; start off extremely fast, repeat that 3 more times, then explode in the Preakness. There is a possibility that he won't run as well in the Belmont. If he doesn't regress, he will stamp himself as one great horse.
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