What about Steppingwolfer

[Samarta]

I love him in this race....I actually posted in an earlier thread that I think it's a two horse race between SW and Jazil.....

[hockey2315]

he'll be in the money but i doubt he can keep close enough to the lead at that distance to close on everybody- i'll put my life's savings on him showing though

[Togacapper]

I agree somewhat some other things need to happen. As for his derby performance I believe this colt had every chance to get 2nd I just think the plethcer horse got first run on him as he was closing from way back. And he seems to be improving very well. Although I dont think he's as good as some of these it's just the 1 1/2 that to me looks like this horse will be better than these.

[Togacapper]

And Albarado guarantee's a win huh who is he Joe Namath.

Originally Posted by Samarta

I think it's a two horse race between SW and Jazil.....

The only problem here is that they are both stone closers and need everyone else to melt down for them to form the exacta....I just don't see that happening...the fact is that Bluegrass Cat was faster than these horses going into the Derby and he still remains the fastest of this bunch (according to Ragozin figs).

I have never been a huge fan of Bluegrass Cat, but the race goes through him according to the figs, and his tactical speed gives him an added edge over Jazil and Steppenwolfer.

Also, don't discount Hemingway's Key underneath (although I hate this horse too) for Zito, who has a great history having horses fire huge in this race and obviously can get one ready for 1 1/2 miles as good as any...

Things could change, but right now I like:

1) Bluegrass Cat
2) Deputy Glitters
3) Hemingway's Key

Jazil and Steppenwolfer obviously figure to clunk up underneath too, but I'll play Hemingway's Key at a better price in most TRIs.

I have never believed in Bob and John and still don't...Sunriver is likable, but the facts are that he still ahsn't run lights out fast....100 Beyer and barely getting by a Catalano's turf horse just doesn't get it...obviously, Pletcher wouldn't have gutted him in the Peter Pan, but the fact that he was cranked for the Derby (if he were to drawinto the field) and under a hard drive in the Peter Pan to win suggests to me that he gave close to a best effort in that race and won't move up too far off of it - so playing against him.

The others are simply too slow to win this race on paper, but I guess there could be a Sarava in the wings since there is technically no "big" horses amongst this bunch....we'll see next week!!!

[Togacapper]

Appreciate your input Cunningham

[Togacapper]

Cunningham if ya have the time explain to me why Deputy fits in this race and why?

Originally Posted by Togacapper

Cunningham if ya have the time explain to me why Deputy fits in this race and why?

1) He likes Belmont (when its not raining)
2) He possesses some of the best tactical speed of the colts that you KNOW will relish the 1 1/2-mile distance.
3) And he has run Rag figs that rival with the top horses in here...when he beat Bluegrass Cat in the TB Derby, BG Cat actually ran a better number (3) than DG (4) because of the trouble BG Cat encountered. But, the fact still remains that he can throw a sub-5 effort when he fires and not many in this prospective field can - or at least has to this point.

I thought Deputy Glitters was faster than Bob and John heading into the Wood, but obviously he didn't like the slop....betting DG is sitting on a big effort on a dry Belmont oval

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

I'm with Cunningham on the tri actually, those are my top 3. I think Zito will have Hemingway's Key ready to roll. The only horse that I am really worried about is Oh So Awesome as Team Valor shipped him here just for this race

[Togacapper]

Very strong oppinion I appreciate it. I don't look at those figs but I have used them from someone I know who uses them. I had a vey good undercard at Churchill due to those figs on Derby Day.

Originally Posted by Togacapper

I had a vey good undercard at Churchill due to those figs on Derby Day.

Exactly...they were pretty on-key that day, and actually, if you boxed the 4 fastest horses by the Rag numbers coming into the Derby, you would have hit the $800 EX with Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat (all you had to do is throw out the Blue Grass Stakes, which everyone knows KEE form doesn't hold up at CD)....

..I can't find my Derby day Rags at the moment, but I believe BARBARO looked to fire a 3-5 (he obviously fired much lower than that range in a breakout effort), BLUEGRASS CAT looked to fire a 3-5, SWEETNORTHERSAINT looked to fire a 1-4 (and he was my main play because he had clearly run faster than the rest coming in), and Brother Derek looked to run a 2-4.....all else were clearly second best...this formula produced the EX and the top 3-of-4 finishers in the race, with Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek obviously encountering a lot of traffic.

...I made a small fortune that day and the Rags were a huge part of the reason.....to me, it is easily the most accurate speed figure on par, and I would suggest everyone take the opportunity to learn the system...I think you'll see your handicapping improve..(and no, I'm not getting paid by Ragozin).

..the one thing that sucks about them is that they are over-priced...freaking $40/day!!!

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The only problem here is that they are both stone closers and need everyone else to melt down for them to form the exacta....I just don't see that happening...the fact is that Bluegrass Cat was faster than these horses going into the Derby and he still remains the fastest of this bunch (according to Ragozin figs).

I have never been a huge fan of Bluegrass Cat, but the race goes through him according to the figs, and his tactical speed gives him an added edge over Jazil and Steppenwolfer.

Also, don't discount Hemingway's Key underneath (although I hate this horse too) for Zito, who has a great history having horses fire huge in this race and obviously can get one ready for 1 1/2 miles as good as any...

Things could change, but right now I like:

1) Bluegrass Cat
2) Deputy Glitters
3) Hemingway's Key

Jazil and Steppenwolfer obviously figure to clunk up underneath too, but I'll play Hemingway's Key at a better price in most TRIs.

I have never believed in Bob and John and still don't...Sunriver is likable, but the facts are that he still ahsn't run lights out fast....100 Beyer and barely getting by a Catalano's turf horse just doesn't get it...obviously, Pletcher wouldn't have gutted him in the Peter Pan, but the fact that he was cranked for the Derby (if he were to drawinto the field) and under a hard drive in the Peter Pan to win suggests to me that he gave close to a best effort in that race and won't move up too far off of it - so playing against him.

The others are simply too slow to win this race on paper, but I guess there could be a Sarava in the wings since there is technically no "big" horses amongst this bunch....we'll see next week!!!

how can you believe in Jazil but not Bob and John, they have almost identical pedigree, and BanJo defeated jazil on this track in the wood. Steppenwolfer will like this race, he has chased Lawyer ron all spring, gaining in the 9th furlong and in the derby showed that 10f is okay as well. he will continue to plod on after many have stopped.
right now Jazil, And Steppenwolfer are my top 2 picks.
who can forget jazil closing in the wood in the slop on this track, who can forget him closing in the KD at 10f.
is something changed now ??
he will be kicking down this stretch AGAIN, nothing has changed,
except this time there will be enough runway to catch BanJo.

[Thunder Gulch]

How many "closers" have won the Belmont? We hear it every year about how someone will appreciate the extra distance, but history tells us that you must be on or near the front at the quarter pole. Steppenwolfer and Jazil may like the added distance, but I'm betting it won't get them in the top 2.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

How many "closers" have won the Belmont? We hear it every year about how someone will appreciate the extra distance, but history tells us that you must be on or near the front at the quarter pole. Steppenwolfer and Jazil may like the added distance, but I'm betting it won't get them in the top 2.

well i'm betting that they will, why don't you just mail me your money instead of wasting it.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Secretariat

well i'm betting that they will, why don't you just mail me your money instead of wasting it.

LOL

Closers don't typically win the Belmont. Just because there is added distance, doesn't mean that they are going to close better. Each race is ran according to the distance of that particular race... I do see at least one of them hitting the board though.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

How many "closers" have won the Belmont? We hear it every year about how someone will appreciate the extra distance, but history tells us that you must be on or near the front at the quarter pole. Steppenwolfer and Jazil may like the added distance, but I'm betting it won't get them in the top 2.

Victory Gallop did.

But I do think Jazil has a better shot than Steppenwolfer.

[Thunder Gulch]

Yeah, Victory Gallop did, but he would shred either of these two we are discussing, and he is the only one in 15 years...Kinda like frontrunners in the Derby, exceptions happen, but you don't want to try to make money with them.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Yeah, Victory Gallop did, but he would shred either of these two we are discussing, and he is the only one in 15 years...Kinda like frontrunners in the Derby, exceptions happen, but you don't want to try to make money with them.

I am sticking with BobandJohn. (Although I did love Victory Gallop! I think I was the only one happy that he won the belmont.)

My tri box (as of right now) is B&J; Deputy Glitters and Jazil. If it is a sloppy track take out DG and put in Bigdog's horse.

Originally Posted by Secretariat

how can you believe in Jazil but not Bob and John, they have almost identical pedigree, and BanJo defeated jazil on this track in the wood. Steppenwolfer will like this race, he has chased Lawyer ron all spring, gaining in the 9th furlong and in the derby showed that 10f is okay as well. he will continue to plod on after many have stopped.
right now Jazil, And Steppenwolfer are my top 2 picks.
who can forget jazil closing in the wood in the slop on this track, who can forget him closing in the KD at 10f.
is something changed now ??
he will be kicking down this stretch AGAIN, nothing has changed,
except this time there will be enough runway to catch BanJo.

I just disagree...Bob and John has never beaten good horses...his Sham win was against weak company and everytime he stepped up to face the best on the West Coast he got his head handed to him....His Wood win was AWFUL IMO...he had difficulty putting away a sprinter in Keyed Entry, and the two CRAWLED home in around 40 seconds for the final 3/8s...Jazil finished great and actually made up around 18-lengths, finishing the final 3/8s in 36 and change..I bet Jazil thta day and was pissed when he couldn't get up....I do believe Jazil is a better closer than Steppenwolfer (IMO) and has a better shot at having success in the Belmont...I am just not convinced he can kick down the likes of BLUEGRASS CAT, SUNRIVER and DEPUTY GLITTERS when he figures to be 10-lengths out of it coming into the far turn...just my opinion...

I have never thought Bob and John was of the best in this class...I think he'll be a better 4-year-old...he has a clumsy way of going and doesn't appear to lay his belly down everytime he runs and has lacked the fired to run with the best horses when the real running comenced in the stretch....not my kind of horse at all...I'll take my chances playing against him...it has worked well to this point.

Go back and review his lifetime pps and look at what happened to him everytime he stepped up to face good 3-year-olds out there on the West coast..