HOL: Bigs/Scavs $30k Hits!

[whodey17]

Hey Scavs - what do you think about the Shem beating Idiot Proof in the 7th?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Hey Scavs - what do you think about the Shem beating Idiot Proof in the 7th?

I think Idiot Proof (home track, 45 day layoff, two nice 6f works) is gonna break 1:09, and there isn't a horse in here that can do that. It is also important that a horse like this has proven to run well fresh (see easy winner two back off the same type of layoff). While I won't argue with people using the 1 or 6 in this race, I just think that he will be allowed to go 44.8 or 45 and if that happens, the race is over. if they make him go 43.4-44.0 they will have a slim shot

[Scav]

While not posting a ticket, I will post the structure that I am using and where I might add horses if the early DD comes up 5-5

4x4(1)x3(1)x5x1x2(1)

(1) means I might add one in that location, only going to add one more horse if I add one so it will be in one of those locations

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think Idiot Proof (home track, 45 day layoff, two nice 6f works) is gonna break 1:09, and there isn't a horse in here that can do that. It is also important that a horse like this has proven to run well fresh (see easy winner two back off the same type of layoff). While I won't argue with people using the 1 or 6 in this race, I just think that he will be allowed to go 44.8 or 45 and if that happens, the race is over. if they make him go 43.4-44.0 they will have a slim shot

Makes good sense. I dont think there is any horse than can go with Idiot Proof.

[letswastemoney]

Hey is there anyone that likes Kooky Kelly in the 4th? I mean she was caught 4 wide last time in the Skipper Mike race. I think with the improved post position here she'll win.

[ArlJim78]

If I were playing I’d go with a bigger ticket like this, I just don't see obvious places to single with strong conviction. Maybe Idiot Proof and cut the ticket in half. but I just don't trust a horse that looks to have trouble carrying his speed at SA, coming to cushion.

Race 3
3 Our Partner
6 Casual Thunder
7 Rival Islands

Race 4 – going wide enough to snag the winner-anybodies guess here how they run
2- Kooky Kelly
3- Steel Kitten
4- King City Kitty
5- Skipper Mike
6- Warrens Devonlane
7- Stitchit

Race 5 – I am not taken by Unusual Suspect like many are- has class from last year but don’t see any development, still running the same type of race, no turf experience, think this one is overbet and won’t win. Like fresher developing horses with more upside.
5- Yankee Bay
7- Grey Rover
8- Bernasconi

Race 6
4- Dennybuck
1A- Headcoach
10- Weft

Race 7 – I can’t single Idiot Proof because although fast does appear to have distance limitations and with no cushion race exp he may get caught.
4 – Idiot Proof
6 – Shem

Race 8 – Think the winner is one of two horses
3 – Star Quality
5 - O Bee Naki

Play 3 x 6 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $1,296

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Race 5 – I am not taken by Unusual Suspect like many are- has class from last year but don’t see any development, still running the same type of race, no turf experience, think this one is overbet and won’t win. Like fresher developing horses with more upside.

What? You reading the right PPs? Unusual Suspect won his turf debut at Del Mar last August. He's been a close 4th in two stakes on turf, and second in a G3 on this turf course. And he's an Unusual Heat, whose offspring move up enormously on turf. He had a sprint prep (with a slow early pace) coming off the layoff and is now ready for his best distance.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

What? You reading the right PPs? Unusual Suspect won his turf debut at Del Mar last August. He's been a close 4th in two stakes on turf, and second in a G3 on this turf course. And he's an Unusual Heat, whose offspring move up enormously on turf. He had a sprint prep (with a slow early pace) coming off the layoff and is now ready for his best distance.

i must have been thinking about something else when i said no turf experience. I'm at work now and don't have pp's.

that said i still do not like him whatsoever in here. he'll have to beat me.

[Late Fires]

Taking a shot and thinking about mixing it up with three tickets:

Ticket 1: 6,7 / 4,5 / 4,5,6,8 / 1 / 4,6 / 2,5,7
Ticket 2: 3,6,8 / 5 / 2,4,8 / 1 / 4,6 / 3,5
Ticket 3: 6 / 5,6 / 1,3,4 / 1,8 / 4 / 2,3,5,7,10

[whodey17]

well i am done.