A Lesson Learned

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin was unquestionably under-trained going into the Kentucky Derby.

I'm not exactly sure why people thought he needed a rest.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin was unquestionably under-trained going into the Kentucky Derby.

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

what else would he say? "i thought he might have a chance to run well"

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what else would he say? "i thought he might have a chance to run well"

He had the "best horse" going in....of course he has a right to think he would win.

In his final workouts leading into the Derby---he was being trained in a manner that would suggest that his connections biggest concerns would be his ability to see out the distance.

After running a sub 12 final 1/8th in his previous start, at 9 furlongs...I'm not sure why.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He had the "best horse" going in....of course he has a right to think he would win.

In his final workouts leading into the Derby---he was being trained in a manner that would suggest that his connections biggest concerns would be his ability to see out the distance.

After running a sub 12 final 1/8th in his previous start, at 9 furlongs...I'm not sure why.

I'm a bit confused here, Drugs. Who was your Derby bet? I thought it was AGS.
If you had such a strong opinion about Curlin, why publically go with AGS?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm a bit confused here, Drugs. Who was your Derby bet? I thought it was AGS.
If you had such a strong opinion about Curlin, why publically go with AGS?

AGS was my Derby bet....though I said repeatedly before the race that Curlin was the "best horse."

As you know---there are many times when you bet against the "best horse."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

What does that have to do with him being under-trained?

If you watch his workouts....he was pretty much restrained throughout in all of them I saw film of....obviously that is what I mean by being undertrained.

When he got this horse....like what, less than 100 days ago, he got a horse who'd just won his debut, in wire-to-wire fashion, sprinting in fast time.

Basically, through workouts, he's done a job of turning a horse with a milers pedigree and a good deal of natural speed, into a deep closing router...who's been quite flat in the early stages in each of his last two races.

If you watch the Preakness again, he had to be ridden along pretty decently at points through the early stages, and was under a hand ride before the 1/2 mile pole.

He was basically not asked to do any real running in his training....and I certainly don't see how anyone can assume he should be a tired horse based on the four starts he had....he certainly has never acted like a tired horse in any of those career starts...that's for sure.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Basically, through workouts, he's done a job of turning a horse with a milers pedigree and a good deal of natural speed, into a deep closing router...who's been quite flat in the early stages in each of his last two races. .

Excuse me? Miler's pedigree? Let's see, some of Smart Strike's leading runners are English Channel, Fleetstreet Dancer (Japan Cup Dirt, 10f+), Tungsten Strike (recent Henry II in Britain, 2 miles).., Yes, he has sired sprinter/milers but his complete record shows that it is not the ONLY type he can sire.

Dam's sire Deputy Minister is another who did sire some speedy types, but has turned out to be a stamina influence for the most part - sired Touch Gold (Belmont), Awesome Again, Deputy Commander, damsire of two Belmont winners (Sarava and Jazil). second dam Barbarika (by 10f specialist Bates Motel) was a multiple graded winner at beyond a mile.

Curlin has plenty to work with to get 10f. He was a short horse in the Derby, that's all.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I love these pedigree geniuses....PA is like our very own Lauren Stich.

Curlin is by Met Mile winner Smart Strike- A sire who's offspring, in dirt races, are often most effective at middle distances.

Curlin's dam is named Sherriff's Deputy. She was unraced. She had FIVE siblings run in route races...NONE of them won. A combined 0-for-28 in route races. One of them did win 8 races in Italy, but according to BRIS, the average winning distance of those 8 races was 4.97 furlongs.

Now, Sherriff's Deputy has had two winning foals prior to Curlin. Her first foal is named Deputy. She's 4-for-20, and the average winning distance of her 4 races is 5.38 furlongs. The second foal is named Secret Wedge, he's won three times, the average winning distance of his three races is 6.33 furlongs.

I realize there are stamina influences in the go-back of the pedigree...but you just made it seem like I was a fool for calling that a milers pedigree.

There is a reason why pedigree analysis is so widely looked down on my by many "high profile" handicappers....and I believe it has to do with the hackery that is often associated with "high profile" pedigree experts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I love these pedigree geniuses....PA is like our very own Lauren Stich.

Curlin is by Met Mile winner Smart Strike- A sire who's offspring, in dirt races, are often most effective at middle distances.

Curlin's dam is named Sherriff's Deputy. She was unraced. She had FIVE siblings run in route races...NONE of them won. A combined 0-for-28 in route races. One of them did win 8 races in Italy, but according to BRIS, the average winning distance of those 8 races was 4.97 furlongs.

Now, Sherriff's Deputy has had two winning foals prior to Curlin. Her first foal is named Deputy. She's 4-for-20, and the average winning distance of her 4 races is 5.38 furlongs. The second foal is named Secret Wedge, he's won three times, the average winning distance of his three races is 6.33 furlongs.

I realize there are stamina influences in the go-back of the pedigree...but you just made it seem like I was a fool for calling that a milers pedigree.

There is a reason why pedigree analysis is so widely looked down on my by many "high profile" handicappers....and I believe it has to do with the hackery that is often associated with "high profile" pedigree experts.

Drugs nothing wrong with your analysis but keep in mind the AWD statistic is quickly becoming a relic as the average race distance carded has dropped significantly as well. Don't have a number but I recall it to be in the 6.7 range.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs nothing wrong with your analysis but keep in mind the AWD statistic is quickly becoming a relic as the average race distance carded has dropped significantly as well. Don't have a number but I recall it to be in the 6.7 range.

I realize that.

However, it's pretty clear that the two winners kin to Curlin are most effective sprinting. One of them was 0-for-5 routing, with one in the money finish. And 3-for-18 sprinting, with 12 in the money finishes. The other one is a short sprint distance specialist.

Hard Spun's dams avg winning distance, from her 4 wins, is 10.13 furlongs.