Bounce theory, Steve?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, would it be fair to say that none of the "sheet" people were touting Curlin because he basically has done something no other horse has ever done, aka starting off his career with amazing figs, and never going backwards despite so many efforts in such a short period of time (5 races in 15 weeks, starting with zero, and finishing with negative ?)

I've never seen a sheet like Curlin's, have you? From a TG standpoint, this horse started at zero, stayed at the same level up until Saturday... to have expected a monster race off the 2 week turnaround was hard to imagine. I wonder if any other horse who ran in the Derby has run a big top in the Preakness?

Jerry made Curlin 50-50 to go forward or regress. In terms of development, Curlin is rather unique given the lack of racing foundation at 2, and basically, this win really belongs to Helen Pitts as much as Steve Asmussen. Because the horse didn't run as a juvenile, he had to get 'bottom' from somewhere.. Since he didn't get it on the track in the afternoons, he had to get it in mornings..

I suppose his figs remind me of Afleet Alex a bit (as a 2yo), who really got his foundation on track; was fast in his second start and stayed fast ('2' and 4 straight paired performances through the BC Juvy) before moving forward into negative numbers at three..

[golfer]

Steve, generally speaking, I'm really just trying to learn as much as I can about which efforts may cause a "reaction".
I realize each horse is different, each situation needs to be evaluated on it's own merit. But is there a general guideline that we can use as a starting point, and work from there?
From now on, I plan on posting about horses that I consider major question marks on whether they will go forward or backward, or pair.. I would greatly appreciate your weighing in on what you would expect( and of course anyone else).

On a slightly different note, the one thing that stood out while handicapping Pimlico Saturday with the TG's was some of the extraordinary numbers these Maryland horses have been putting up, for certain trainers, especially. Now I don't follow Maryland racing, so either theses horses are far better than I realized, or perhaps the "medication" rules are a bit lax

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

On a slightly different note, the one thing that stood out while handicapping Pimlico Saturday with the TG's was some of the extraordinary numbers these Maryland horses have been putting up, for certain trainers, especially. Now I don't follow Maryland racing, so either theses horses are far better than I realized, or perhaps the "medication" rules are a bit lax

Medication rules are 'laxest in Delaware.. A big part of Maryland horses being better than possibly appreciated is Laurel. Laurel is a lot like Calder in that it is a deep, kind surface that lends itself well to keeping horses sound and developing condition. When LRL horses move to speedier surfaces, like Calder horses moving to Gulfstream, they can really 'move up'... (And fast works at LRL look slower than they really are like 'slow' works at Calder and Saratoga's Oklahoma Training Track..)

Examples? Well my guy Trombetta uses it to advantage all the time, but this weekend, how about Keep On Talking (3rd at 34-1) in The Very One; Winning Point in the Black-Eyed Susan (actually trains at old Bowie, another kind surface); Street Magician in the Jacobs; Ryan's for Real in the Schaefer.. Etc..