Preakness races 9-12 writeup (WARNING: CHALK)

[ateamstupid]

Leg B (Race 10): The Dixie Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles (Turf), Grade II, $250,000, 3+ (Post Time: 4:22 p.m. EST)

1 - Can't Beat It (Marty Wolfson / Rafael Bejarano) 15-1
First half of uncoupled Wolfson entry comes into this off a weird effort in the G3 Miami Mile BC where he didn't get out of the gate for a good second or so, earning the short comment "dwelt" usually reserved for European races. He made a decent move to get into contention, but understandably evened out and ended up sixth, beaten 5 on the line. Willing to give him a pass for that and barn looks like it means business with two quick works back at CRC since. But there are issues. First off, not sure if he's fast enough to win this, even on his best and secondly, he certainly finds trouble for himself an awful lot. It's also a bit of a concern that Castro is on Wolfson's other runner, although Bejarano isn't a shabby replacement. Thinking this dude has a good future on the turf, but this seems like too tough a spot for him at this point.

2 - General Jumbo (Graham Motion / John Velazquez) 30-1
Interesting spot for this son of Dansili who's been working lights out at FAI but hasn't been seen racing since running a disappointing eighth in a CD optional claimer last fall. He ran decently in a couple of 12-furlong turf heats before that, but was still unable to crack the trifecta in three stakes tries. The presence of Velazquez would be more interesting if it looked as if he had other options, and it doesn't seem that he did. Placing says that Motion has confidence, but perhaps it's a bit too much. Leaning elsewhere.

3 - Cosmonaut (Patrick Biancone / Edgar Prado) 9-2
Lemon Drop Kid gray tried grass after disappointing in the G1 Stephen Foster last spring, and certainly took to it, immediately scoring a victory in the G3 Arlington at AP. He ran a respectable fifth behind a slow pace in the G1 Arlington Million, then proceeded to run solidly in a few more G1 events in the summer and fall. Was laid off after a disconcerting fifth in the G1 Hollywood Turf Cup, but boy did he come back running at KEE on Apr. 21. He stalked the pace in hand, then went four wide on the far turn and blew by the leaders in the stretch to score by 3 3/4, earning a BSF of 104 and TG of 2 for the run. Wasn't a great field, but it was a nasty performance for a prep, and Biancone has eased back on him in his two interim works, signaling that he got something out of the effort. Not crazy about the inside post, but he's got the tactical speed to make his own trip and look plenty scary turning for home. A must use.

4 - Dreadnaught (Tom Voss / Jean Luc Samyn) 10-1
Former jumper has been banging around the graded stakes landscape for a while now, picking up checks every once in a while, but never breaking through and getting the victory. His nearest try to date was in this very race last year, when he got outbobbed by fellow veteran gelding Better Talk Now and ran second at 12-1. He hasn't quite duplicated that performance since, but perhaps a return to the PIM grass will do the trick, and he ran a few big efforts at GP recently. Still, it's hard to trust a seven-year-old who doesn't have a win on the page to run down a bunch of spry young whipper snappers with more tactical speed and better records. Certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him snare a trifecta finish, but all for 'Naught would be mildly startling at least.

5 - Silver Tree (Bill Mott / Calvin Borel) 5-1
Another old-timer, this chestnut was as consistent as any between 8-9 furlongs as recently as last spring, but save for a score in the G3 Appleton, he's been surprisingly mediocre in four starts since taking the $85,000 Turf Classic at TAM last April. To be fair, he probably was in over his head in the G1 Turf Classic at CD, he had major trouble at the break in the $50,000 Tri-State at ELP and he was trying to run down a loose leader in the G3 John B. Connally BC at HOU last out. It's still a possibility that he's lost a step at 7, and at 5-1 on the ML, he doesn't seem like much value. It's also not exactly encouraging that Mott couldn't book a rider for him at entry time. Would be foolish to toss him entirely, as he showed in the Appleton that he's still got some pep in his step, but not loving his potential as a win bet.

6 - Woodlander (Gary Contessa / Alan Garcia) 20-1
Forestry bay showed promise in early turfing days, scoring a victory in the G3 Lexington at BEL in the spring of '05, but he's been somewhat of a disappointment since then, failing to win another stakes until scoring at 12-1 in the G3 Fort Marcy at AQU last time out. That effort was doubly impressive when considering that it came off a near six-month layoff with a light worktab. All the five-year-old has done in the meantime is blow out a bullet five furlongs last Saturday. His career high BSF of 97 and TG of 3 3/4 leaves something to be desired, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility that he improves off his last effort, and that would be good enough to get him at least a piece of the pie. Dangerous at a price.

7 - Stay Close (Michael Zwiesler / Mark Guidry) 20-1
Little known but sharp (40% in 2007) outfit sends out this Belong to Me gelding fresh off local victory in $75,000 Henry Clark, and while this bay doesn't seem to match up figure-wise to most of these, he's now familiar with the course and tough to fault connections for taking a shot. It's just that this field is worlds better than anything he faced last time and it's going to be tough to improve a sufficient amount on the large class jump. Hot horse probably cools off in here.

8 - Wood Be Willing (Michael Matz / Ryan Fogelsonger) 30-1
SCRATCHED

9 - Einstein (Helen Pitts / Robby Albarado) 3-1
Brazilian-bred has turned into quite a nice turf runner in a relatively short span of time, running two big races from impossible posts in the winter, earning negative TG numbers each time. That may have contributed to him breaking as the favorite in the G1 Turf Classic at CD two weeks ago, and he didn't do a ton of running, finishing seventh, although beaten only 3 at the string. Draws outside yet again and spins back on short rest, but give him a break for CD run, and it's not like he ran awful, he just wasn't as good as he was in his previous two starts. On any kind of bounceback, he's going to prove quite formidable, wide post or no. Expecting a big effort.

10 - Outperformance (Rick Violette / Garret Gomez) 8-1
Talented sophomore was a disappointment in his four-year-old debut, running fourth in an N3X at KEE, although he did close well after being 7 back at the 5/16 pole. Not quite sure why Castellano doesn't come in for the mount and the truth is this Aptitude colt simply hasn't run fast enough to win this kind of race yet. Still, he's a consistent sort that'll put in his run, and note that he's got plenty of experience over wet grass, which will come in handy if the rains come today. He probably will need a very quick pace up front, but if he gets one, he'll be gaining with every stride late.

11 - Mending Fences (Marty Wolfson / Eddie Castro) 10-1
The wild card in the race, this five-year-old speedball has really come of age recently, running two big races on the GP turf before scoring a solid victory in the J.B. Connally BC over Silver Tree. Earned a 103 BSF two back when second to multiple graded stakes winner English Channel after setting a quick pace. He doesn't meet any other balls-to-the-wall speed types today, but there are plenty of horses who can keep him honest, and the 11-hole isn't exactly the ideal slot for a frontrunner even though there's a long run into the first turn. Son of Forestry certainly is going well right now, but thinking there are too many obstacles to overcome in here for him to notch a victory.

12 - Remarkable News (Angel Penna / Ramon Dominguez) 7-2
Consistently fast Venezuelan-bred made a name for himself with quick win in G2 Fourstardave last summer at SAR, then ran a big second in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile in the fall. Penna chose to skip the BC Mile with his colt, and instead give him the winter off. He returned with a good, if unspectacular win at GP, then broke terribly in the G2 Maker's Mark and was taken out of his game, forced to go four wide around both turns. He ran sixth, but was only beaten 2 1/4, and now makes his third start off the layoff. The drawbacks are obviously the post and the fact that neither Douglas nor Castellano came in for the ride. He's still imposing.

(3) Cosmonaut - Will be tough to beat with any improvement off comeback SECOND
(9) Einstein - Too talented to ignore despite another outside draw DNF
(12) Remarkable News - Was up against it after slow start last out FIRST
(10) Outperformance - Main beneficiary if quick fractions materialize THIRD

$2 EXACTA - $49.80
$2 TRIFECTA - $388.00