Preakness Toss

slotdirt · #1 05-18-2007, 08:14 AM

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17

Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

miraja2 · #2 05-18-2007, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17

Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

And those four horses (well, at least three of them) are about ten times more talented in two-turn races than FFC.

slotdirt · #3 05-18-2007, 08:18 AM

Even Like Now was at least a graded winner coming into the race. What has Flying First Class done besides hammer a sprint race and win the stinking Derby Trial? I think Going Wild had a better shot in the Preakness than Flying First Class does, and that's not saying much.

JDank34 · #4 05-18-2007, 08:33 AM

I just have an opinion on who will run behind SS to finish the exacta and fill in the tri and super. You guys can look at prior preakness races and certainly stand against FFC. I feel he is rounding back into form and while i TOTALLY agree he is a better 7f horse I also have seen him train and I feel Guidry will have him in front a long time and he may not quit as soon as you all think. You want your hard earned dollars riding on D Wayne off the plane and The Guid or Cowboy Jones and Pino?

slotdirt · #5 05-18-2007, 08:44 AM

Based on 2007 stats? D. Wayne is 14-44 W-WPS percentage, Larry Jones is 17-56. Not a huge difference, but I guarantee you Jones is doing more with less than Lukas.

Cajungator26 · #6 05-18-2007, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JDank34

I just have an opinion on who will run behind SS to finish the exacta and fill in the tri and super. You guys can look at prior preakness races and certainly stand against FFC. I feel he is rounding back into form and while i TOTALLY agree he is a better 7f horse I also have seen him train and I feel Guidry will have him in front a long time and he may not quit as soon as you all think. You want your hard earned dollars riding on D Wayne off the plane and The Guid or Cowboy Jones and Pino?

I just wish that people would stop laughing at the guy for being southern...

With that said, my hard earned dollars will be riding on whatever horse I feel has the best shot to win or hit the board, and Flying First Class isn't near as nice of a horse as Hard Spun, so I'll take my chances with Hard Spun.

cmorioles · #7 05-18-2007, 08:54 AM

Skipping the obvious chanceless horses, I'm tossing Curlin. He will be the most overbet horse in the race in my opinion.

tycharles01 · #8 05-18-2007, 08:57 AM

The one thing I don't understand about the public is the affection for Street Sense. He is a nice horse but its not like he destroyed the Derby field

If Stormello would have stayed on the line he was running we would be talking about Street Sense and his 7th or 8th place finish.

Grant the horse his due but doubt he gets that same trip again.

cmorioles · #9 05-18-2007, 08:59 AM

If you think he was finishing 7th or 8th without a perfect trip, I'd watch the race again. It isn't like he squeezed through some narrow opening.

miraja2 · #10 05-18-2007, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

The one thing I don't understand about the public is the affection for Street Sense.

I think you also have to remember that the public really likes closers. Seeing a horse go from 19th to 1st is more exciting for most people than seeing a horse wire the field.

ArlJim78 · #11 05-18-2007, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

The one thing I don't understand about the public is the affection for Street Sense. He is a nice horse but its not like he destroyed the Derby field

If Stormello would have stayed on the line he was running we would be talking about Street Sense and his 7th or 8th place finish.

Grant the horse his due but doubt he gets that same trip again.

I don't see a great deal of public affection for Street Sense that I would call excessive or overly hyped. He has had smashing wins in the two biggest races for young horses. Why would he not be the horse getting the attention and hype? You say he didn't destroy the derby field, well I'm not sure what the definition for destroyed is but by my call that was a decisive win. Hard Spun was within a few lengths and was the only one with anything close to Street Sense's performance, everyone else was an also ran.

he will go off as a big favorite in the Preakness, and rightfully so.
Don't be surprised when he get's his trip again, because it may be a case of him making his trip more than him getting his trip, if that makes sense.
Hard Spun also got a good trip in the derby, why? because he is fast and can make a good trip for himself.

JDank34 · #12 05-18-2007, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17

Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

NEVER said he would wire the field....I said he will hang on for 2,3,4 behind SS. I will be playing him second for a value play exacta.