Preakness Toss

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West

Many, many far superior animals to Flying First Class have "loped" along in 23 and 46 fractions at Pimlico and finished 10th. I challenge you to find me the last time a Preakness starter went 23 and 46 and won the race off the lead.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

I agree! You can't compare what he did in that race with his chances in this one!
I don't know if I would consider :46 for a half "loping along" in a 9.5f race. The pace should be strong up front, and he seems far more likely than Hard Spun to me to fall apart. You have him finishing in front of Hard Spun? I don't see how you come up with that one.
Oh well, it seems like you are determined to play him so I will stop trying to talk you out of it. Like I said earlier in the thread, I am not playing the race at all, so I truly wish you the best of luck with FFC. It should pay EXTREMELY well if you hit it.

[slotdirt]

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

And those four horses (well, at least three of them) are about ten times more talented in two-turn races than FFC.

[slotdirt]

Even Like Now was at least a graded winner coming into the race. What has Flying First Class done besides hammer a sprint race and win the stinking Derby Trial? I think Going Wild had a better shot in the Preakness than Flying First Class does, and that's not saying much.

[JDank34]

I just have an opinion on who will run behind SS to finish the exacta and fill in the tri and super. You guys can look at prior preakness races and certainly stand against FFC. I feel he is rounding back into form and while i TOTALLY agree he is a better 7f horse I also have seen him train and I feel Guidry will have him in front a long time and he may not quit as soon as you all think. You want your hard earned dollars riding on D Wayne off the plane and The Guid or Cowboy Jones and Pino?

[slotdirt]

Based on 2007 stats? D. Wayne is 14-44 W-WPS percentage, Larry Jones is 17-56. Not a huge difference, but I guarantee you Jones is doing more with less than Lukas.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I just have an opinion on who will run behind SS to finish the exacta and fill in the tri and super. You guys can look at prior preakness races and certainly stand against FFC. I feel he is rounding back into form and while i TOTALLY agree he is a better 7f horse I also have seen him train and I feel Guidry will have him in front a long time and he may not quit as soon as you all think. You want your hard earned dollars riding on D Wayne off the plane and The Guid or Cowboy Jones and Pino?

I just wish that people would stop laughing at the guy for being southern...

With that said, my hard earned dollars will be riding on whatever horse I feel has the best shot to win or hit the board, and Flying First Class isn't near as nice of a horse as Hard Spun, so I'll take my chances with Hard Spun.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

NEVER said he would wire the field....I said he will hang on for 2,3,4 behind SS. I will be playing him second for a value play exacta.