Preakness Toss

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree with everything you say here. I couldn't toss many (except for the ridiculous Lukas colt) either....which is why I eventually tossed them all.
I think trying to beat Street Sense here makes sense because - although he is certainly the most likely winner - he will probably be seriously overbet. I can't blame anyone that thinks they have found the value-horse in beating Street Sense (because one is certainly out there somewhere) but I have absolutely no idea who that is.

better be cautious with that one..........

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JDank34

better be cautious with that one..........

His performances in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby left me with the definite impression that this horse wants no part of 8.5 or 9 furlongs. I see no reason why he would like even MORE distance against far tougher competition.
In his route races he has been completely overmatched against horses like Deadly Dealer and Officer Rocket. That leaves me more than skeptical about his chances against Street Sense and Hard Spun.
Add to that a likely unfavorable pace scenario and the fact that his trainer has a well-deserved reputation for recently (we don't need a lecture about all of his past success) running any four-legged creature he is associated with in TC races, and he is a COMPLETE toss in my opinion.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

His performances in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby left me with the definite impression that this horse wants no part of 8.5 or 9 furlongs.I see no reason why he would like even MORE distance against far tougher competition.
In his route races he has been completely overmatched against horses like Deadly Dealer and Officer Rocket. That leaves me more than skeptical about his chances against Street Sense and Hard Spun.
Add to that a likely unfavorable pace scenario and the fact that his trainer has a well-deserved reputation for recently (we don't need a lecture about all of his past success) running any four-legged creature he is associated with in TC races, and he is a COMPLETE toss in my opinion.

I can see your point, but the man has won 13 TC races! I am not a believer the FFC wanted to be taken back like he was in Arkansas and Guidry fits him much better than TThompson. He will lead them a long, long, long way tomorrow and I think he holds on for a part (maybe even second).

[miraja2]

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West

Many, many far superior animals to Flying First Class have "loped" along in 23 and 46 fractions at Pimlico and finished 10th. I challenge you to find me the last time a Preakness starter went 23 and 46 and won the race off the lead.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

I agree! You can't compare what he did in that race with his chances in this one!
I don't know if I would consider :46 for a half "loping along" in a 9.5f race. The pace should be strong up front, and he seems far more likely than Hard Spun to me to fall apart. You have him finishing in front of Hard Spun? I don't see how you come up with that one.
Oh well, it seems like you are determined to play him so I will stop trying to talk you out of it. Like I said earlier in the thread, I am not playing the race at all, so I truly wish you the best of luck with FFC. It should pay EXTREMELY well if you hit it.

[slotdirt]

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.