Preakness Toss

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I have now tossed them all.
This will be the first time in a long time that I will not play a TC race, but I live by the philosophy of skipping the races I really can't figure out.....even if it is a G1 classic. I looked at the pp for awhile today trying to find something, but I just can't find anything I really like.
I think it was Scav that said a few days ago that he didn't like anyone. I have to agree with him. I feel weird skipping it....but I think I am just going to enjoy this one as a fan.

I must be easier to please, because I can't toss any of them. Give me 300-1, and I'd be all over Mint Slewlep. Give me 3-1, and I'm all over Street Sense. Not likely to get either of those, I'll admit. But maybe I can get the 9-1 that I would need to bet Circular Quay, or the 12-1 that would get me interested in King of the Roxy. If the track comes up sloppy, maybe I'll even get the 4-1 I'd need to love Hard Spun.

I agree with Beyer. Street Sense's Derby was very nice, but it wasn't as impressive as it (casually) looked. He certainly has a good chance to win the Preakness, but not the even money chance he will probably go off at. It's a good betting opportunity, IMO.

--Dunbar

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I must be easier to please, because I can't toss any of them. Give me 300-1, and I'd be all over Mint Slewlep. Give me 3-1, and I'm all over Street Sense. Not likely to get either of those, I'll admit. But maybe I can get the 9-1 that I would need to bet Circular Quay, or the 12-1 that would get me interested in King of the Roxy. If the track comes up sloppy, maybe I'll even get the 4-1 I'd need to love Hard Spun.

I agree with Beyer. Street Sense's Derby was very nice, but it wasn't as impressive as it (casually) looked. He certainly has a good chance to win the Preakness, but not the even money chance he will probably go off at. It's a good betting opportunity, IMO.

--Dunbar

I agree with everything you say here. I couldn't toss many (except for the ridiculous Lukas colt) either....which is why I eventually tossed them all.
I think trying to beat Street Sense here makes sense because - although he is certainly the most likely winner - he will probably be seriously overbet. I can't blame anyone that thinks they have found the value-horse in beating Street Sense (because one is certainly out there somewhere) but I have absolutely no idea who that is.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree with everything you say here. I couldn't toss many (except for the ridiculous Lukas colt) either....which is why I eventually tossed them all.
I think trying to beat Street Sense here makes sense because - although he is certainly the most likely winner - he will probably be seriously overbet. I can't blame anyone that thinks they have found the value-horse in beating Street Sense (because one is certainly out there somewhere) but I have absolutely no idea who that is.

better be cautious with that one..........

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JDank34

better be cautious with that one..........

His performances in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby left me with the definite impression that this horse wants no part of 8.5 or 9 furlongs. I see no reason why he would like even MORE distance against far tougher competition.
In his route races he has been completely overmatched against horses like Deadly Dealer and Officer Rocket. That leaves me more than skeptical about his chances against Street Sense and Hard Spun.
Add to that a likely unfavorable pace scenario and the fact that his trainer has a well-deserved reputation for recently (we don't need a lecture about all of his past success) running any four-legged creature he is associated with in TC races, and he is a COMPLETE toss in my opinion.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

His performances in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby left me with the definite impression that this horse wants no part of 8.5 or 9 furlongs.I see no reason why he would like even MORE distance against far tougher competition.
In his route races he has been completely overmatched against horses like Deadly Dealer and Officer Rocket. That leaves me more than skeptical about his chances against Street Sense and Hard Spun.
Add to that a likely unfavorable pace scenario and the fact that his trainer has a well-deserved reputation for recently (we don't need a lecture about all of his past success) running any four-legged creature he is associated with in TC races, and he is a COMPLETE toss in my opinion.

I can see your point, but the man has won 13 TC races! I am not a believer the FFC wanted to be taken back like he was in Arkansas and Guidry fits him much better than TThompson. He will lead them a long, long, long way tomorrow and I think he holds on for a part (maybe even second).

[miraja2]

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West