Beyer caught the wedding and plans to miss the funeral.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

EG---if the pace was really as tepid as you say---the horses who sat 2nd, 3rd, and 4th off that early pace all wouldn't have all been practically eased and finishing no better than 17th place.

Or alternatively, these horses are not that good. How would one be able to tell the difference? Was the pace real hot or were the horses not that good? Is there a way to tell? A daily variant? Perhaps but 10f on dirt is only run 2 or 3x a year so we dont really have much data pts. to go on.

Its like an age old question: does good pitching beat good hitting? Well how do we know? If this guy strikes out was it a good pitcher or a bad batter? Both? Does defense win football games? Or was the offense that bad? We could go on and on..

Had this discussion a few days ago on the PA forum. No one responded to my rhetorical question of how to determine which it was..

In terms of history, 1:11+ is not hot (the half mile in 46+ was). If memory serves only one horse has gone sub 1:10 and won (Spend a Buck); several have gone 1:10+ and won..But 1:11+ is prolly about in the middle. You dont have to look at it in terms of history, but was the track playing that slow...?


BTW: I read your post 27 after I posted and that post is a better and more insightful version of what Davidowitz is trying to say. If that was the summary of his piece I prolly wouldnt have wrote that.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Or alternatively, these horses are not that good. How would one be able to tell the difference? Was the pace real hot or were the horses not that good? Is there a way to tell?

I think its a judgement call, and you have to look at the given circumstances and try to make a guess, where they not good or were they pace victims, or a combination of both. I say it was both.

In my way of looking at it, if it was a tepid pace then even some of these horses that perhaps aren't so good would have held on better, and not faded so badly. Can they all really be SO bad that the would immediately beat such a hasty retreat giving up massive amounts of ground in the final part of the race? Maybe they were a cut below the top class in the race, but because they all retreated so badly I am more inclined to think that a swift pace aided them significantly in their retreats.