If you are interested....

justindew · #1 05-17-2007, 10:45 AM

Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.

justindew · #2 05-17-2007, 10:47 AM

....Also, my opinion on Hard Spun has nothing to do with him finishing 2nd. He could have been passed late by another horse or two, and I would feel the same way.

brianwspencer · #3 05-17-2007, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

....Also, my opinion on Hard Spun has nothing to do with him finishing 2nd. He could have been passed late by another horse or two, and I would feel the same way.

Mine has everything to do with him finishing second and absolutely nothing else, as I'm always looking for an edge.

blackthroatedwind · #4 05-17-2007, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.

I don't like even the idea of " trends " as I think each case is different. For example, Lion Heart, who I absolutely hated in the Preakness ( to be honest I was hardly Smarmy Jones's biggest supporter either ). I felt Lion Heart's effort in the Derby was completely a result of the sloppy track, as he was on empty at the top of the stretch and the track carried him home. I assumed he would be burned up trying to deal with Smarty Jones and regardless of the final result he would be spent. To me he was essentially a miler who went further do to racetrack bias and conditions.

To me, Hard Spun is simply a horse that has run well every time he has hit the racetrack, and I don't see why that shouldn't be the case Saturday.

tycharles01 · #5 05-17-2007, 10:52 AM

Question about Flying First Class

What is the farthest he has run?? or farthest he ran before dying??

justindew · #6 05-17-2007, 10:54 AM

He went 8.5F and 9F at Oaklawn.

slotdirt · #7 05-17-2007, 10:56 AM

Even if Hard Spun AND Curlin regress though, they're going to have to run with three legs to get to CP West's level. Honestly.

justindew · #8 05-17-2007, 10:59 AM

I couldn't come up with a better choice for 3rd. Plus, I can't spend all week dissing Hard Spun and Curlin, and them use them in the tri.

SentToStud · #9 05-17-2007, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I couldn't come up with a better choice for 3rd. Plus, I can't spend all week dissing Hard Spun and Curlin, and them use them in the tri.

Your article was a pleasant read. I give you credit for looking deeper into the field to come up with CP West and (for right or wrong) taking a stand against the 2nd and 3rd favorites.

slotdirt · #10 05-17-2007, 11:04 AM

You bet with your pockets, not with your pen. I'm sure lots of us have dissed horses around here then used them when we get to the window.

The Indomitable DrugS · #11 05-17-2007, 11:09 AM

Pinnacle has posted their odds for the race.

Their linemakers Curlin obsession continues, as they have him at only +352. Once again, you'll get better than that on race-day.

Street Sense is once again being generously offered at +156 (better than 3/2 odds) They had him as high as 6/1 on Oaks day. You probably won't be sniffing 3/2 on him come Preakness day....as he will flirt with even money, and would be odds-on if not for the fact that horses like Mint Slewlip and Xchanger will likely be strongly underlaid by novice money.

Thunder Gulch · #12 05-17-2007, 03:02 PM

I really like the race Hard Spun ran in the Derby, but I look at him and I see Peace Rules running back in the Preakness. Ugly business.

Scurlogue Champ · #13 05-17-2007, 04:08 PM

Nice job on the article.

Cajungator26 · #14 05-19-2007, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Even if Hard Spun AND Curlin regress though, they're going to have to run with three legs to get to CP West's level. Honestly.

C P West ran very well... flattened out a bit in the stretch, but I can see him turning into a nice horse this summer.

That was a good call by Justin on him...